Apr. 06 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Kerry 252   Bush 286  
Senate: Dem 39   GOP 28  
House: Dem 0   GOP 0  

Senate map with polls
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strong Dem Strong Dem (146)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (69)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (37)
weak GOP Weak GOP (66)
strong GOP Strong GOP (183)
  Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  

News from the Votemaster

The University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll ran a poll of likely Democratic primary voters from March 27 to April 2. Among other things, they asked whether the voter has a favorable, neutral, or unfavorable opinion of the various candidates. Often these ratings are more important and more stable than particular candidate preferences this far in advance of the all-important New Hampshire primary. The results are below. This poll did not survey the Republican candidates.

Some things stand out very clearly. If Al Sharpton decides to run again, he's not going to do well in New Hampshire. On the other hand, John Edwards has an incredible +72% net favorability rating. People really like him. That is not the same as voting for him, because people can like a candidate but not like his positions on the issues, but it is a powerful start. Historically, people have tended to vote for candidates they like, even if they don't agree with them on all the issues.

Also noteworthy is that Barack Obama is quite popular, with Al Gore in third place and Hillary Clinton in fourth place. Below that, "Don't Know" wins. Of the second tier candidates, Bill Richardson may be in the best shape because few people dislike him.

Candidate Favorable Unfavorable Net Neutral Don't know
John Edwards 80% 8% 72% 7% 4%
Barack Obama 69% 10% 59% 11% 9%
Al Gore 69% 21% 48% 9% 2%
Hillary Clinton 64% 24% 40% 10% 1%
Bill Richardson 27% 12% 15% 14% 47%
Wesley Clark 34% 29% 5% 13% 24%
Joe Biden 30% 27% 3% 15% 28%
Chris Dodd 21% 25% -4% 16% 37%
Dennis Kucinich 22% 30% -8% 13% 36%
Mike Gravel 4% 14% -10% 11% 71%
Al Sharpton 14% 62% -48% 10% 14

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

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-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

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