Today's topic is retirement.
For the latest Presidental polling data, click here.
No, this is not about anybody's position on social security; it is about
Congressional retirements. In every cycle there are always a few senators and
representatives who have had enough and announce that they are not running
for reelection. Such open seats are very important given that the releection
rate for incumbents is well over 90%.
Seats switch parties for two reasons: (1) a seat becomes open due to a retirement
or death, or (2) the incumbent is caught up in a scandal of some kind.
Consequently open seats are very important, as they may flip, especially in
swing districts. One popular way to measure the swinginess of a congressional
district is Charlie Cook's Partisan Voting Index, which tells how much more
Democratic or Republican a district is than the country as a whole, as measured
by the last two presidential elections. Thus D+3 means the district is 3% more
Democratic than the national average.
In such an unstable electoral environment as we have now,
any district between D+9 and R+9 has to be considered a
swing district.
Starting today, the House page
will list the PVI of each district listed.
So far we have five retirements in the Senate and 19 in
the House, with more expected. All the Senate retirements are
Republicans and 16 of the 19 House retirements are Republicans.
These numbers mean that the Democrats have an extraordinary
opportunity to pick up a few more Senate seats and perhaps
another dozen or more House seats. It is not a coincidence that
most of the retirements are Republicans. When a party is in the
minority, with little hope of regaining the majority in the next
election, many members of that party get discouraged and decide
that politics is a lot less fun than when they had real power.
Let us look at the Senate first, then the House. Wayne Allard (R-CO)
promised he would serve only two terms and kept his promise. This
race will feature Bob Schaffer (R), who lost the 2004 Republican
senatorial primary, against Rep. Mark Udall (D). Many Colorado
Republicans feel Schaffer is too far to the right. Udall is the favorite here.
Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) is retiring after being caught in a wide
stance in a Minneapolis airport mens room. There will undoubtedly
be a ferocious Republican primary and the winner of it will be
elected to the Senate.
Former senator Bob Kerrey's decision not to run for a third term
means that the winner of the Mike Johanns vs. Jon Bruning primary
will almost assuredly win and hold the seat for the GOP.
Sen. Pete Domenici is retiring in part due to brain disease
but mostly due to his being embroiled in a scandal in which he
tried to pressure a U.S. attorney to prosecute Democrats for
political reasons (if a malfunctioning brain was sufficient reason to
retire from Congress, the place would be rather depopulated).
Rep. Tom Udall, Mark's cousin, may run, and if so, will probably
be the favorite against the winner of the Heather Wilson vs. Steve
Pearce Republican primary. A wild card here is Bill Richardson.
If he does very poorly on superduper Tuesday (Feb. 5, 2008), he
might decide to give up on being president and run for the Senate
seat, for which he would be the odds-on favorite. The filing deadline
for the Senate is Feb. 12, 2008.
Sen. Warner is retiring in Virgina after a long and distinguished
career. He will be replaced by Sen. Warner--only it is Mark instead
of John. Former governor Mark Warner (D) is expected to win in a
landslide over former governor Jim Gilmore (R).
State
Incumbent
Party
Notes
Colorado
Wayne Allard
GOP
Mark Udall (D) is the favorite
Idaho
Larry Craig
GOP
Primary expected, but GOP will hold the seat
Nebraska
Chuck Hagen
GOP
Mike Johanns vs. Jon Bruning in primary; GOP will hold the seat
New Mexico
Pete Domenici
GOP
If Tom Udall (D) runs, he will be the favorite
Virginia
John Warner
GOP
Mark Warner (D) will crush Jim Gilmore (R)
Now on to the House. Here we have a mixed bag of retirements.
A few are due to age, a few others are due to scandals.
In other cases, a representative is running for higher office.
In a few cases, the incumbent was probably put under very heavy
pressure by his or her party (translation: we will fund a
primary challenger).
An example of the latter is Rep. Barbara Cubin (R WY-AL). In 2006
she threatened to hit a guy in a wheelchair and consequently was
relected by under 1000 votes--in a hugely Republican state. Her
2006 opponent, Gary Trauner, is running again, and she would
probably have lost this time due to his increased experience and
credability. So it is likely that one of the party elders had a
little man-to-woman chat with her and pointed out what a wonderful
place Wyoming is to spend your retirement years in. Now the GOP
can find a less tainted candidate and will almost certainly hold
the seat.
The Republican woes in the House are compounded by the money
situation. The DCCC, headed by Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland
has $20 million in the bank to help out in tough races for the House.
The NRCC, headed by Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, has $2 million in
the bank (and debts of $4 million). He has pretty much conceded
he can't help GOP candidates much and is looking for rich
businessmen who can fund their own campaigns as candidates. The
problem with this strategy is that historically, self-funded
candidates with no political experience rarely win.
All in all, the three seats being vacated by Democrats are
probably safe, but all the Republican seats except in Alabama,
Mississippi, and Wyoming will be hotly contested. Even Tancredo's
seat will be a bitter fight as Colorado has been trending blue
in recent years and the Democrats picked up a Republican House
seat in 2006.
This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous
elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when
there is interesting news about the 2008 races.
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