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News from the Votemaster

I was traveling the previous two weeks, hence the slow update rate. On my trip I passed through the Minneapolis airport and happened to chance by the men's room where Sen. Larry Craig was caught in a wide stance. I couldn't resist taking a couple of pictures.

SurveyUSA released polls today in eight states where close Senate races are expected. All of these seats are currently held by Republicans, although the incumbents in Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are retiring. Republicans are also retiring in Idaho and Nebraska, but those seats are safe for the GOP. Based on these very earlier results, the Democrats will pick up four seats in the Senate if they do not lose any of their own. But the only Democratic seat is serious trouble is Mary Landrieu's seat in Louisiana. At this point a net Democratic pickup of 3-4 seats looks likely, maybe more if there are additional retirements. In races where primaries will occur, the outcomes with the various major contenders are listed.

State Democrat Pct Republican Pct
Colorado Mark Udall (D) 48% Bob Schaeffer (R) 41%
Maine Tom Allen (D) 38% Sussan Collins (R) 55%
Minnesota Al Franken (D) 45% Norm Coleman (R) 46%
Minnesota Mike Ciresi (D) 44% Norm Coleman (R) 44%
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen (D) 53% John Sununu (R) 42%
New Mexico Martin Chavez (D) 48% Steve Pearce (R) 43%
New Mexico Martin Chavez (D) 48% Heather Wilson (R) 44%
New Mexico Don Wiviott (D) 32% Steve Pearce (R) 49%
New Mexico Don Wiviott (D) 38% Heather Wilson 47%
Oregon Jeff Merkley (D) 39% Gordon Smith (R) 48%
Virginia Mark Warner (D) 57% Jim Gilmore (R) 35%

Below are the polling data for the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively. Hillary Clinton is way ahead just about everywhere, a bit change from earlier this year when John Edwards led in Iowa. If Clinton sweeps the small states voting before Feb. 5, it will be impossible to stop her nomination. The only hopes John Edwards and Barack Obama have is to beat her decisively in these early contests and surf on the resulting publicity. One big surprise this year has been New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who has been polling in the low single digits. He is a middle-aged white male, a popular governor of a swing state in a critical part of the country, and someone with a lot of experience in both the executive and legislative branches of government. And he is a Latino, to boot, which should help in Florida and parts of the West, but no dice. If his quest crashes and burns on Feb. 5, he still has a week to sign up to run for the open Senate seat in New Mexico, for which he is a shoo-in (he was just reelected governor by the largest margin in state history and is term limited in that job). He might be hoping to be anointed Veep, but does Clinton, Obama, or Edwards want a running mate who has done as badly as he has outside his home state?

The Republican race is as murky as ever. Rudy Giuliani is still leading nationally, but Romney is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire and Thompson is leading in South Carolina. If Giuliani loses all three of those, every newspaper, magazine, and blog is going to be running headlines like: "Can Rudy survive?" on the eve of the Feb. 5 superduper primary. Who knows what might happen under those circumstances. A wildcard here is Mike Huckabee, who is now polling second in Iowa. The .csv data is here.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Alabama Capital Survey Oct. 25 40% 21% 14% 24% 12% 7% 26%
Alabama ARG Aug. 2 38% 19% 17% 26% 16% 3% 31%
Alabama Capital Survey July 19 33% 29% 9% 20% 11% 5% 34%
Alabama Capital Survey May 1 37% 21% 9% 29% 23% 7%  
Alabama U. of South Alabama Apr. 19 33% 25% 12% 28% 23% 3%  
Alabama Capital Survey Mar. 6 35% 19% 9% 28% 23% 3%  
Alabama ARG Feb. 13 44% 13% 11% 31% 19% 3%  
Alabama Capital Survey Jan. 17 27% 14% 19% 20% 24% 3%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Arizona ARG Oct. 9 41% 14% 16% 19% 26% 18% 15%
Arizona ARG July 26 39% 25% 8% 23% 32% 7% 15%
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll May 29 26% 22% 7% 20% 35% 7%  
Arizona Arizona State U. Apr. 22 25% 20% 18% 27% 32% 11%  
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Mar. 21 27% 20% 9% 25% 34% 11%  
Arizona Arizona State U. Feb. 25 28% 24% 14% 25% 44% 6%  
Arizona ARG Feb. 13 33% 24% 13% 21% 45% 2%  
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Jan. 22 32% 15% 18% 13% 40% 11%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Arkansas ARG Mar. 19 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
California Field Poll Oct. 21 45% 20% 11% 25% 12% 13% 12%
California San Jose State U. Oct. 8 42% 20% 14% 34% 17% 11% 7%
California Field Poll Sep. 11 41% 23% 14% 22% 15% 16% 16%
California Field Poll Aug. 12 35% 22% 16% 35% 9% 14% 13%
California ARG Aug. 2 35% 22% 16% 30% 7% 18% 18%
California Public Policy Inst. June 19 41% 25% 12% 31% 16% 13% 13%
California ARG May 8 37% 28% 15% 27% 24% 11%  
California Field Poll Mar. 31 41% 28% 13% 36% 24% 7%  
California SurveyUSA Mar. 6 44% 31% 10% 41% 23% 8%  
California Datamar Feb. 15 34% 24% 16% 41% 17% 11%  
California ARG Jan. 17 36% 33% 6% 33% 18% 3%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Colorado ARG Sep. 18 36% 20% 19% 20% 12% 8% 25%
Colorado ARG July 18 39% 22% 10% 35% 11% 9% 20%
Colorado ARG Apr. 2 34% 23% 17% 25% 23% 9%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 43% 16% 8% 42% 14% 9% 10%
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. May 7 28% 20% 8% 36% 15% 9%  
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Feb. 12 33% 21% 5% 43% 27% 4%  
Connecticut ARG Feb. 6 40% 8% 10% 32% 21% 14%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Delaware Fairleigh Dickinson U. Feb. 25 34% 19% 10%        
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Florida Quinnipiac U. Oct. 22 43% 18% 12% 27% 8% 17% 19%
Florida Mason-Dixon Sep. 18 47% 19% 9% 24% 9% 13% 23%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Sep. 9 42% 13% 9% 28% 10% 11% 17%
Florida Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 43% 13% 8% 26% 11% 9% 19%
Florida Mason-Dixon July 26 31% 17% 12% 21% 11% 7% 18%
Florida Quinnipiac U. July 16 36% 14% 9% 30% 10% 9% 18%
Florida ARG July 15 45% 25% 9% 33% 7% 12% 27%
Florida Quinnipiac U. June 25 43% 16% 11% 29% 13% 9% 29%
Florida Zogby June 6 36% 16% 11% 31% 12% 12% 10%
Florida Schroth/Polling Co. May 9 42% 19% 12% 29% 15% 14%  
Florida ARG May 8 45% 17% 15% 31% 18% 11%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 13% 11% 38% 15% 7%  
Florida U. of North Florida Apr. 13 35% 20% 9% 31% 14% 6%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 27 36% 13% 11% 35% 15% 5%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 38% 13% 6% 38% 18% 6%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Feb. 4 49% 13% 7% 29% 23% 6%  
Florida ARG Jan. 9 30% 14% 15% 30% 15% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Georgia ARG Aug. 6 35% 25% 17% 20% 7% 14% 27%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Idaho Greg Smith July 13 31% 33% 15% 20% 14% 38% 18%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Illinois ARG July 9 33% 37% 10% 30% 12% 11% 21%
Illinois ARG Jan. 14 30% 36% 5% 33% 24% 12%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Iowa ARG Oct. 29 32% 22% 15% 16% 14% 27% 8%
Iowa U. of Iowa Oct. 24 29% 27% 20% 13% 6% 36% 11%
Iowa Selzer Oct. 3 29% 22% 23% 11% 7% 29% 18%
Iowa Princeton Survey Sep. 27 31% 25% 21% 15% 7% 25% 16%
Iowa LA Times Sep. 10 28% 19% 23% 16% 7% 28% 16%
Iowa ARG Aug. 29 28% 23% 20% 17% 5% 27% 13%
Iowa Zogby Aug. 18 30% 19% 23% 14% 6% 33% 12%
Iowa U. of Iowa Aug. 5 25% 19% 26% 11% 3% 28% 8%
Iowa Selzer July 31 26% 26% 27% 14% 26% 8% 13%
Iowa ARG July 30 30% 15% 21% 22% 17% 21% 13%
Iowa Research 2000 July 25 22% 16% 27% 13% 10% 25% 14%
Iowa ARG June 30 32% 13% 29% 18% 13% 25% 14%
Iowa Mason-Dixon June 16 22% 18% 21% 15% 6% 25% 17%
Iowa Selzer May 16 21% 23% 29% 17% 18% 30%  
Iowa Research 2000 May 15 28% 22% 26% 17% 18% 16%  
Iowa Zogby May 15 24% 22% 26% 16% 18% 17%  
Iowa ARG Apr. 30 23% 19% 27% 19% 26% 14%  
Iowa U. of Iowa Mar. 31 28% 19% 34% 21% 20% 17%  
Iowa Zogby Mar. 26 25% 23% 27% 25% 19% 11%  
Iowa ARG Mar. 23 34% 16% 33% 29% 29% 10%  
Iowa Zogby Feb. 9 24% 24% 18% 19% 17% 5%  
Iowa Zogby Jan. 16 16% 27% 17% 19% 17% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Kansas Research 2000 May 23 27% 22% 21% 13% 13% 17%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Maine Critical Insights Apr. 27 39% 22% 16% 24% 21% 12%  
Maine ARG Feb. 6 41% 14% 17% 33% 22% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Maryland Washington Post Oct. 22 48% 29% 8% 39% 18% 10% 14%
Maryland OpinionWorks Aug. 26 32% 19% 10% 32% 13% 8% 12%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Massachusetts Suffolk U. Apr. 15 32% 18% 19%        
Massachusetts ARG Feb. 6 35% 24% 19% 29% 30% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Michigan ARG Sep. 4 43% 21% 14% 13% 9% 39% 12%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 31 40% 21% 16% 23% 15% 25% 16%
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 13 45% 26% 16% 19% 16% 12% 22%
Michigan EPIC/MRA June 13 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24% 8%
Michigan ARG May 7 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24%  
Michigan EPIC/MRA Mar. 18 45% 29% 16% 26% 30% 21%  
Michigan ARG Mar. 4 35% 30% 14% 30% 35%    
Michigan EPIC/MRA Feb. 4 49% 20% 8% 32% 28% 8%  
Michigan ARG Jan. 7 30% 30% 17% 34% 24% 10%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Minnesota Princeton Survey Sep. 23 47% 22% 16% 27% 22% 5% 16%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Missouri ARG Aug. 6 40% 15% 22% 23% 14% 11% 22%
Missouri ARG Jan. 9 30% 18% 17% 18% 31% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Nevada Mason-Dixon Oct. 11 39% 21% 9% 28% 8% 18% 23%
Nevada Research 2000 Aug. 16 33% 19% 15% 18% 8% 28% 18%
Nevada Mason-Dixon June 22 39% 17% 12% 17% 8% 20% 25%
Nevada ARG June 19 40% 16% 16% 21% 16% 23% 16%
Nevada Mason-Dixon May 1 37% 12% 13% 12% 19% 15%  
Nevada Zogby Apr. 12 35% 21% 15% 37% 15% 15%  
Nevada Research 2000 Mar. 8 32% 20% 11% 38% 18% 4%  
Nevada Research 2000 Feb. 2 1900% 33% 19% 15% 18% 8% 28%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Hampshire ARG Oct. 29 40% 22% 10% 23% 17% 30% 5%
New Hampshire Saint Anselm Coll. Oct. 21 43% 22% 14% 22% 15% 32% 5%
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Oct. 9 43% 21% 12% 21% 17% 27% 10%
New Hampshire Zogby Sep. 28 38% 23% 12% 21% 16% 24% 7%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Sep. 24 41% 19% 11% 22% 17% 23% 12%
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Sep. 14 36% 18% 12% 23% 14% 30% 8%
New Hampshire LA Times Sep. 10 35% 16% 16% 23% 12% 28% 11%
New Hampshire ARG Aug. 29 37% 17% 14% 23% 12% 27% 8%
New Hampshire Hart/McLaughlin July 26 36% 19% 15% 17% 16% 33% 13%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire July 17 36% 27% 9% 20% 12% 34% 13%
New Hampshire Research 2000 July 11 33% 25% 15% 21% 18% 28% 11%
New Hampshire ARG June 30 34% 25% 11% 19% 21% 27% 10%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. June 24 37% 19% 9% 22% 13% 26% 13%
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon June 7 26% 21% 18% 15% 16% 27% 12%
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. June 6 41% 17% 15% 18% 17% 27% 9%
New Hampshire Zogby May 16 28% 26% 15% 19% 19% 35%  
New Hampshire ARG Apr. 29 37% 14% 26% 17% 29% 24%  
New Hampshire Zogby Apr. 3 29% 23% 23% 19% 25% 25%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Apr. 3 27% 20% 21% 29% 29% 17%  
New Hampshire ARG Mar. 23 37% 23% 20% 19% 23% 17%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Mar. 12 32% 25% 16% 28% 29% 22%  
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Feb. 28 28% 26% 17% 37% 27% 17%  
New Hampshire Zogby/UNH Feb. 8 27% 23% 13% 27% 28% 13%  
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 17 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Jersey Rutgers-Eagleton Oct. 23 52% 21% 8% 54% 12% 6% 6%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 46% 20% 9% 48% 12% 7% 12%
New Jersey Rutgers/Eagleton Aug. 7 45% 21% 16% 61% 10% 5% 8%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. July 2 46% 19% 8% 48% 12% 7% 10%
New Jersey Monmouth U. Apr. 16 41% 22% 13% 49% 19% 6%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Apr. 16 38% 16% 9% 49% 18% 6%  
New Jersey Fairleigh Dickinson U. Mar. 4 46% 18% 10% 59% 20% 6%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Feb. 25 41% 19% 5% 58% 15% 2%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Jan. 22 30% 8% 16% 39% 21% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Mexico ARG Jan. 13 22% 17% 12% 38% 20% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New York Quinnipiac U. Oct. 15 49% 12% 11% 45% 9% 7% 12%
New York Siena Coll. Sep. 16 42% 17% 11% 47% 16% 6% 9%
New York Siena Coll. July 28 48% 14% 7% 40% 13% 7% 11%
New York Quinnipiac U. June 17 44% 14% 6% 46% 8% 3% 14%
New York Siena Coll. Apr. 20 39% 17% 11% 47% 16% 8%  
New York Blum+Weprin Apr. 7 49% 17% 11% 56% 15% 5%  
New York ARG Apr. 2 41% 20% 16% 50% 14% 7%  
New York Quinnipiac U. Apr. 2 44% 14% 9% 52% 13% 6%  
New York Siena Coll. Mar. 22 43% 11% 7% 31% 20% 6%  
New York Quinnipiac U. Feb. 11 47% 16% 7% 51% 17% 1%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
North Caolina Elon U. Sep. 27 37% 18% 18% 21% 12% 8% 28%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
North Carolina Elon U. Apr. 19 20% 20% 26% 32% 22% 10%  
North Carolina ARG Jan. 15 26% 19% 30% 34% 26% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 47% 19% 11% 29% 10% 8% 17%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Sep. 3 44% 15% 11% 23% 17% 11% 15%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 41% 16% 11% 29% 11% 8% 11%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. July 9 35% 17% 13% 24% 14% 8% 18%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. June 25 46% 14% 15% 26% 16% 8% 18%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. May 13 38% 19% 11% 23% 17% 11%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 37% 14% 17% 23% 21% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 19 32% 22% 11% 31% 20% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 32% 19% 13% 35% 18% 3%  
Ohio U. of Akron Feb. 21 42% 16% 17% 36% 28% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Jan. 28 38% 11% 13% 30% 22% 4%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Oklahoma Sooner Apr. 30 29% 13% 29% 32% 23% 6%  
Oklahoma ARG Feb. 13 40% 15% 16% 37% 21% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Oregon Riley Research Aug. 15 26% 18% 17% 16% 8% 15% 11%
Oregon Riley Research Mar. 13 31% 21% 8% 33% 20% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Oct. 8 41% 14% 11% 32% 13% 8% 13%
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. Sep. 2 38% 21% 17% 32% 19% 12% 11%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 20 42% 12% 8% 31% 13% 7% 8%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 35% 19% 10% 29% 16% 3% 14%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. June 25 38% 22% 10% 29% 16% 4% 15%
Pennsylvania Franklin+Marshall Coll. June 4 40% 18% 21% 29% 29% 12%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 14% 13% 29% 17% 5%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 25 36% 17% 9% 33% 18% 5%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 29% 18% 11% 43% 17% 6%  
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Feb. 20 42% 16% 11% 37% 29% 6%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Feb. 5 37% 11% 11% 30% 20% 4%  
Pennsylvania ARG Jan. 8 32% 12% 13% 35% 25% 1%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Rhode Island Brown U. Sep. 9 35% 16% 7%        
Rhode Island Brown U. Jan. 27 33% 8% 15%        
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
South Carolina ARG Oct. 29 41% 19% 18% 23% 32% 10% 13%
South Carolina Winthrop U. Oct. 28 33% 23% 10% 17% 9% 17% 18%
South Carolina LA Times Sep. 10 45% 27% 7% 23% 15% 9% 26%
South Carolina ARG Aug. 29 32% 21% 24% 26% 12% 9% 21%
South Carolina Clemson U. Aug. 29 26% 16% 10% 18% 15% 11% 19%
South Carolina ARG July 30 29% 33% 18% 28% 10% 7% 27%
South Carolina Opinion Research July 18 27% 27% 17% 30% 21% 6% 18%
South Carolina ARG June 30 37% 22% 21% 22% 23% 8% 19%
South Carolina Mason-Dixon June 15 25% 34% 12% 21% 7% 11% 25%
South Carolina Winthrop U. May 27 29% 21% 11% 19% 14% 12% 6%
South Carolina ARG Apr. 30 36% 24% 18% 23% 36% 6%  
South Carolina Hamilton/McHenry Apr. 19 31% 27% 16% 15% 24% 10%  
South Carolina Zogby Apr. 17 33% 26% 21% 19% 22% 10%  
South Carolina ARG Feb. 27 36% 25% 20% 29% 35% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Texas U. of Texas May 7 33% 21% 8% 23% 27% 6% 11%
Texas ARG Mar. 19 34% 32% 11% 30% 20% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Utah Dan Jones Oct. 4       8% 6% 65% 3%
Utah ARG Feb. 13 31% 18% 9% 13% 21% 40%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Vermont ARG Feb. 6 37% 19% 14% 29% 30% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Virginia Washington Post Oct. 8 49% 25% 11% 34% 20% 9% 19%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
West Virginia ARG Apr. 2 37% 22% 19% 29% 33% 8%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Wisconsin St. Norbert Coll. Apr. 17 33% 30% 18% 26% 24% 9%  

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