Oct. 18 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Kerry 252   Bush 286  
Senate: Dem 51   GOP 49  
House: Dem 233   GOP 202  

Senate map with polls
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strong Dem Strong Dem (146)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (69)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (37)
weak GOP Weak GOP (66)
strong GOP Strong GOP (183)
  Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  

News from the Votemaster

The cumlative polling data for the presidential primaries can be found here.

The Presidential candidates have filed their third quarter financial reports as reported by OpenSecrets.org and listed below in whole dollars. The data are also available in .csv format. What is striking is how the Democrats dominate the money race. The net worth of Hillary Clinton's campaign is $48 million, more than twice as much as the net worth of all the Republican campaigns combined. Even Barack Obama's campaign has 1.5 times as much as all the Republican campaigns combined. Not bad for a guy only 3 years removed from the Illinois state Senate.

However, the net worth figures are a bit misleading. Mitt Romney is last because he has a debt of $17 million, but that debt is entirely to himself. Sometime next year, Mitt the banker could say to Mitt the candidate: "You did a great job. Tell you what. You don't have to pay me back." It is harder to do that (not to mention, illegal) if the creditor is an arline or hotel chain Thus while Romney has raised $63 million, only $45 million came from other folks, which puts him on par with Rudy Giuliani, who hasn't invested his own money in his campaign.

The Ron Paul phenomenon is also noteworthy. His campaign's net worth exceeds that of McCain, Huckabee, Brownback, Hunter, Keyes, Tancredo, and Romney. And with a bit of luck, he could pass Fred Thompson for the #2 slot by the end of the year. We're talking about a fringe candidate here, after all; it is as if Mike Gravel were coming in just behind Obama on the Democratic side. Paul is clearly tapping into the mother lode of unhappiness among Republicans with their "top-tier" candidates. Paul is also the only Republican to oppose the war in Iraq and call for the troops to come home. On one of the debates he had to nerve to suggest that maybe our stationing troops in Saudi Arabia might just have something to do with "why they hate us." All the other candidates, led by Rudy Giuliani, began frothing at the mouth when he said this, but it is likely some Republicans watching the debate reacted by reaching for their credit cards. While Paul is not registering in the polls at all, things could change. Remember Harold Wilson's dictum: In politics, a week is a long time.

To anyone who has followed the money trail for a long time, these numbers are nothing short of astounding. Historically, the GOP outraised the Democrats by a huge margin. This year the Democratic presidential candidates are far outstripping the Republican candidates. And the picture is just as gloomy for the GOP in terms of Senate and House fundraising where the Democrats hold huge leads.

One can't but have the feeling that major Republican donors are holding back because they see the handwriting on the wall. When you give money to the eventual winner, you are buying access to the people in power. Politicians are the last bargain left in America. For $100,000 you can have lunch with a senator whenever you want to. You can't even buy a parking space in Manhattan for that. For $1 million, you get the President's personal cell phone number and for $10 million they'll change the colors in the American flag for you. If you bet on the loser, it is money down the toilet. This is why following the money race is imortant--it shows you what the big guys are thinking. Yes, small donations via the Internet are becoming more important, but the big bundlers are still where the real action is.

Candidate Party Q3 raised Q3 spent Tot raised Tot spent Cash on Hand Debt Net
Hillary Clinton Dem 27,859,861 22,623,680 90,935,788 40,472,775 50,463,013 2,347,486 48,115,527
Barack Obama Dem 21,343,292 21,519,790 80,256,427 44,169,236 36,087,191 1,409,740 34,677,451
Rudy Giuliani GOP 11,624,255 13,300,650 47,253,521 30,603,695 16,649,826 169,256 16,480,570
John Edwards Dem 7,157,233 8,271,938 30,329,152 17,932,103 12,397,048 0 12,397,048
Fred Thompson GOP 12,828,111 5,706,367 12,828,111 5,706,367 7,121,744 678,432 6,443,312
Bill Richardson Dem 5,358,585 6,666,681 18,699,937 12,878,349 5,821,588 75,222 5,746,366
Ron Paul GOP 5,258,456 2,169,644 8,268,453 2,824,786 5,443,667 0 5,443,667
Chris Dodd Dem 1,522,061 4,025,458 13,598,152 9,723,278 3,874,874 0 3,874,874
Joe Biden Dem 1,757,394 2,635,896 8,215,739 6,329,324 1,886,340 128,210 1,758,130
John McCain GOP 5,734,478 5,470,277 32,124,785 28,636,157 3,488,628 1,730,691 1,757,937
Mike Huckabee GOP 1,034,486 819,376 2,345,798 1,694,497 651,301 47,810 603,491
Dennis Kucinich Dem 1,011,696 888,774 2,130,200 1,803,576 327,094 0 327,094
Sam Brownback GOP 925,745 1,278,856 4,235,333 4,140,660 94,654 0 94,654
Duncan Hunter GOP 536,357 618,117 1,890,873 1,758,132 132,742 50,000 82,742
Alan Keyes GOP 21,218 10,139 22,768 10,139 12,629 12,876 -247
Mike Gravel Dem 130,510 99,866 238,745 207,604 31,141 64,716 -33,575
Tom Tancredo GOP 767,152 1,209,583 3,538,244 3,458,130 110,079 295,603 -185,524
Mitt Romney GOP 18,396,719 21,301,756 62,829,069 53,612,552 9,216,517 17,350,000 -8,133,483

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

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-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

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