Jul. 08 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 320   McCain 218  
Senate Dem 55   GOP 45  
House Dem 239   GOP 196  

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strong Dem Strong Dem (194)
weak Dem Weak Dem (45)
barely Dem Barely Dem (81)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (23)
weak GOP Weak GOP (115)
strong GOP Strong GOP (80)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: RI RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IN IA MT NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Who's Running the McCain Campaign? Nevada Trends Democratic
Obama Heads to Georgia Group Proposes "Honor" to President Bush
Clinton's Convention Role Negotiated Clinton's Online Operation Remains Powerful

News from the Votemaster

Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), the subject of widespread speculation as a candidate for Vice President on the Democratic ticket, has ruled this out. He didn't mention pitchers of warm bodily fluids or anything else. So far no coherent explanation of why he doesn't want the job has come up (other than the fact that it is a pointless, stupid job--except maybe you could become President some day). The list of Veepables is shrinking. Chris Bowers is crossing them off from a list leaked last week. To this one could add (or subtract) a couple more. Evan Bayh has the downside that if DSCC chairman pulls off a miracle and picks up nine Senate seats to reach 60, when Bayh is sworn in as Vice President, Indiana governor Mitch Daniels will then appoint a Republican to Bayh's seat. Kathleen Sebelius brings in no states and might antagonize Hillary Clinton's supporters. Besides, she is not a very good speaker. Sam Nunn is too old, Jack Reed is too low profile, Joe Biden runs off at the mouth all the time. Everybody's got something. Of course Obama might pull a Quayle and choose someone completely off the radar

It is now official: Barack Obama will deliver his acceptance speech at the Denver Broncos' stadium, which holds 76,000 people, most of whom are going to be screaming their heads off on Aug. 28. That will be a tough act for John McCain to follow a week later. He can make valid points about his wartime service to his country and his experience, but it's hard to see how he can have the emotional impact Obama will have. And all the pundits will no doubt point out over and over that the only other candidate to give his acceptance speech in a stadium was John F. Kennedy, someone Obama would love to be compared to, of course. Why else do you think he hired Caroline Kennedy to vet his Veeps?

How the tickets will be distributed is yet to come, but Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, has announced that there will be a drawing from the people who make a donation of $5 or more from now to the end of July, and 10 lucky winners will get free trips to Denver for two, tickets to the acceptance speech, and a backstage meeting with Obama. This is a bit surprising though. The could easily have made this the first prize, with 100 second prizes of tickets and a meeting with Obama in groups of 20, and 1000 third prizes of just tickets. But maybe there is more to come.

Rasmussen polled about the candidates favorable/unfavorable ratings. The results: 54%/43% for John McCain, 56%/42% for Barack Obama. They are virtually identical. Conclusion: all the noise about Rev. Wright is already forgotten. It is important to realize that the hot issue of the day is often forgotten a month later.

The NY Times has a story today about what is going on within the McCain team. The bottom line is that McCain hates to fire people, especially people he knows well and who have done their utmost best for him, so that when someone is underperforming, he or she gets demoted with vague duties. This recently happened when Steve Schmidt was brought in to run the campaign but campaign manager Rick Davis wasn't fired. Over a period of time, the campaign acquires a number of people whose jobs are unclear. This leads to internal squabbling and hinders the campaign. In contrast, when Hillary Clinton decided that Patti Solis Doyle wasn't up to the job, she was told to leave. Obama's campaign (so far) has been remarkable free of this kind of stuff.

One presidential poll today, in Rhode Island. Obama has a solid lead there.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Rhode Island 55% 31% Jun 30 Jun 30 Rasmussen

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