Jul. 13 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 320   McCain 204   Ties 14
Senate Dem 55   GOP 45  
House Dem 239   GOP 196  

Senate map and races
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strong Dem Strong Dem (183)
weak Dem Weak Dem (56)
barely Dem Barely Dem (81)
tied Exactly tied (14)
barely GOP Barely GOP (23)
weak GOP Weak GOP (101)
strong GOP Strong GOP (80)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: MO RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IN IA MT NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Clinton Still on Obama's Short List Democrats Get Big Swing in Florida
Poll Shows Obama Losing Momentum Snow Dies at 53
Hagel Will Visit Iraq With Obama Research 2000: Obama Leads in Missouri

News from the Votemaster

John McCain has had a bit of trouble reconciling his conservative views on abortion and gun control with his much more liberal views on immigration and global warming. Many people want to put him into some neat pigeonhole and he doesn't fit. Now he has come up with a role model in Teddy Roosevelt. Most people don't remember what Roosevelt did other than that moose were involved somehow, but TR has a generally positive image and historians rate him as the fifth best President of all time.

The bizarre saga of NY-13 continues. The filing deadline has passed and the Republicans still don't have a candidate to succeed Vito Fosella, the congressman who ran a red light drunk on the way to one of his two families. They had one--Frank Powers--but he suddenly died. For lack of another candidate, they filed Powers anyway. After all, dead people do get elected to Congress from time to time, Mel Carnahan (D-MO) was elected to the Senate posthumously in 2000, for example. And a recent Rasmussen poll showing that only 9% of the people think Congress is doing an excellent or good job suggests that live congressmen are only marginally better than dead ones. The Republicans hope that if they can find a live candidate eventually, he or she can replace the dead one, although New York state law really doesn't deal with this situation. All in all, it is hard to see how the Republicans can suddenly come up with a top-tier candidate despite a couple of months of searching very hard. One possibility is Paul Atanasio, who is on the ballot for the Conservative Party. In New York, a candidate can be on the ballot for two parties and the votes are added up. However, some Staten Island Republicans strongly dislike Atanasio.

The Democratic establishment has settled on Mike Mahon, who represents part of the Staten Island-based district in the city council. He is part of the DCCC's red-to-blue program and will get money from the DCCC. He has to win a primary in Sept., but with the party behind him, he is expected to do so. It seems increasingly like the Democrats will pick up NY-13, the last Republican-held House seat in New York City.

Speaking of House seats in the New York area, the filing deadline has now passed and the Republicans failed to file a candidate in NY-18, which covers Westchester County, just north of the Bronx, so incumbent Nita Lowey (D) gets a free ride. Westchester is the 12th wealthiest of the 3000 counties in the United States and used to be completely dominated by the Republicans. Westchester politics have certainly changed even though its income and demographics have not. This is part of a national trend in which inner suburbs are going Democratic as their densities increase and people care more about urban sprawl and good public transportation than guns.

Only one poll today, but it is an important one. Research 2000 puts Obama ahead in Missouri by 5 points. However, Missouri has been swinging back and forth all year and will probably continue doing so. This is a crucial state for McCain. He really must win Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, For Obama, Missouri would help enormously but it is not essential.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Missouri 48% 43% Jul 07 Jul 10 Research 2000

-- The Votemaster

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