John McCain has had a bit of trouble reconciling his conservative views on abortion and gun control with
his much more liberal views on immigration and global warming. Many people want to put him into some neat
pigeonhole and he doesn't fit. Now he has come up with a
in Teddy Roosevelt. Most people don't remember what Roosevelt did other than that moose were involved somehow,
but TR has a generally positive image and historians rate him as the
fifth best President of all time.
The bizarre saga of NY-13 continues. The filing deadline has passed and the Republicans still don't
have a candidate to succeed Vito Fosella, the congressman who ran a red light drunk on the way to one of
his two families. They had one--Frank Powers--but he suddenly died. For lack of another candidate, they
filed Powers anyway. After all, dead people do get elected to Congress from time to time, Mel Carnahan (D-MO)
was elected to the Senate posthumously in 2000, for example.
And a recent Rasmussen poll showing that only 9% of the people think Congress is doing an excellent or good
job suggests that live congressmen are only marginally better than dead ones.
The Republicans hope that if they can find a live candidate eventually, he or she
can replace the dead one, although New York state law really doesn't deal with this situation. All in all,
it is hard to see how the Republicans can suddenly come up with a top-tier candidate despite a couple of
months of searching very hard.
One possibility is Paul Atanasio, who is on the ballot for the Conservative Party. In New York, a candidate
can be on the ballot for two parties and the votes are added up. However, some Staten Island Republicans
strongly dislike Atanasio.
The Democratic establishment has settled on Mike Mahon,
who represents part of the Staten Island-based district in the city council.
He is part of the DCCC's red-to-blue program and will get money from the DCCC. He has to win a primary in Sept.,
but with the party behind him, he is expected to do so.
It seems increasingly like the Democrats will pick up NY-13, the last Republican-held House seat in New York City.
Speaking of House seats in the New York area, the filing deadline has now passed and the Republicans failed to
file a candidate in NY-18, which covers Westchester County, just north of the Bronx, so incumbent Nita Lowey (D)
gets a free ride. Westchester is the 12th wealthiest of the 3000 counties in the United States and used to be
completely dominated by the Republicans. Westchester politics have certainly changed even though its income and
demographics have not. This is part of a national trend in which inner suburbs are going Democratic as their
densities increase and people care more about urban sprawl and good public transportation than guns.
Only one poll today, but it is an important one. Research 2000 puts Obama ahead in Missouri by 5 points.
However, Missouri has been swinging back and forth all year and will probably continue doing so. This is
a crucial state for McCain. He really must win Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, For Obama, Missouri would help
enormously but it is not essential.