Jun. 21 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 317   McCain 194   Ties 27
Senate Dem 56   GOP 44  
House Dem 238   GOP 197  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
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strong Dem Strong Dem (193)
weak Dem Weak Dem (42)
barely Dem Barely Dem (82)
tied Exactly tied (27)
barely GOP Barely GOP (38)
weak GOP Weak GOP (51)
strong GOP Strong GOP (105)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: CA IA NH NV RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA MO NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

News from the Votemaster

The Obama campaign is belatedly realizing that it needs to have more women in the top positions of the campaign organization and is rapidly correcting the problem. In addition to the recent hire of Patti Solis Doyle this week, it also announced hiring Stephanie Cutter, John Kerry's 2004 communications director as a senior advisor and Jen O'Malley Dillon as battleground states director. More hires of women in key positions are expected.

Some of the committees have reported their May fundraising efforts. The RNC has $54 million cash on hand to the DNC's paltry $4 million. The DNC has actually raised quite a bit of money, but it is spending it on Howard Dean's 50-state strategy. The RNC is saving its pennies to help John McCain in the Fall.The DSCC has $39 million on hand to the NRSC's $22 million. The NRCC has $7 million in the bank. The DCCC hasn't reported yet.

In case you missed the announcement in February, Ralph Nader is back again continuing his quest for the Harold Stassen Award. This is Nader's fourth run, so he needs six more after this one to break Stassen's record. When people confront him blaming him for George W. Bush's victory in 2000 and thus the Iraq war he replies that the people who should really get the blame are George H.W. Bush and Barbara Bush for creating him in the first place.

Here are today's presidential polls. Iowa and Nevada are close, as expected, with McCain leading slightly in Nevada and Obama leading slightly in Iowa. Both will be battleground states this year.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
California 53% 41% Jun 17 Jun 19 SurveyUSA
Iowa 49% 45% Jun 13 Jun 16 SurveyUSA
New Hampshire 50% 39% Jun 18 Jun 18 Rasmussen
Nevada 42% 45% Jun 18 Jun 18 Rasmussen

The New Hampshire Senate race looks like it is going to be a landslide for three-time former governor Jeanne Shaheen.

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 53% John Sununu* 39% Jun 18 Jun 18 Rasmussen

Perhaps the most indicative poll of all today is in IN-09, an R+7 district in which Rep. Baron Hill (D) and Mike Sodrel (R) keep taking turns at being a congressman. Hill now is leading 51% to 40%. We saw earlier this year that Democrats swept three open seats in Republican territory (IL-14, LA-06, and MS-01). Now we are starting to see what might happen to incumbent Democrats in Republican territory--they might be reelected in landslides. While it is still too early for Hill to break out the champagne, when a Democrat has an 11-point lead in a heavily Republican district it does not bode well for the GOP in contested House races.

-- The Votemaster

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