Jun. 24 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 317   McCain 194   Ties 27
Senate Dem 56   GOP 44  
House Dem 238   GOP 197  

Senate map and races
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strong Dem Strong Dem (172)
weak Dem Weak Dem (40)
barely Dem Barely Dem (105)
tied Exactly tied (27)
barely GOP Barely GOP (38)
weak GOP Weak GOP (51)
strong GOP Strong GOP (105)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: NM PA UT RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA MO NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

News from the Votemaster

The electoral college graph over time is now operational. Please click on "Electoral coll. graph" on the menu below the map. In addition, the Senate pages now have a link for the polling data. Click on "Senate map and races" to the right of the map for the key Senate races.

Mydd has a list of how the various committees are doing with fundraising. Here it is.

Committee May receipts May expenses Cash on Hand
DNC $5 million $4 million $4 million
RNC $24 million $11 million $54 million
DSCC $6 million $5 million $39 million
NRSC $5 million $3 million $22 million
DCCC $6 million $4 million $47 million
NRCC $5 million $5 million $7 million

The national committees, the DNC and RNC, tend to focus their efforts on the presidential election. For the Republicans, the large RNC bank account will help offset Barack Obama's expected large fundraising advantage over John McCain, but not entirely since McCain is limited to $85 million in government funds and spening and Obama is expected to raise something like $200 million to $300 million.

The Senate and House committees are a different story. Here the Democrats have a big advantage, especially in the House. The Republicans are trying to offset this by recruiting rich businessmen to run in the hope they can adequately fund their own campaigns. History shows this is not an easy route. It is hard to buy a seat in Congress (in contrast to a businessman buying a sitting congressman, which is surprisingly cheap).

Continuing with looking at some possible Republican Veeps, let's look at the Republican governors. After all, since John McCain is a senator, a governor would provide some executive experience and there are several plausible options among the governors.

  • Haley Barbour (R-MS) is an old party war horse who served as chairman of the Republican National Committee. Age? He is popular in Mississippi and with him on the ticket, McCain would certainly win the state. Without him it might actually be a horse race down there. About 37% of the population is black and if Obama is able to get most of the registered--and he is going to try like hell--he needs only a quarter of the white vote (say, young people and those with college degrees) to carry the state. Still wasting the VP slot to win a state that should be easy is too defeatist.
  • Matt Blunt (R-MO) is a one-term governor who is not running for reelection because he is so unpopular he'd probably lose. McCain would probably do better in Missouri with him off the ticket than with him on it.
  • Don Carcieri (R-RI) has 14 grandchildren he dotes on. He would make McCain look positively young. Probably McCain doesn't see it that way though.
  • Charlie Crist (R-FL) is the young, good-looking, popular, governor from a crucial swing state with 27 electoral votes. What else could McCain ask for? How about a wife and three smiling children? Crist was married 28 years ago, got divorced after a year, and never married again. Might be a tough sell to the family values crowd.
  • Mitch Daniels (R-IN) is a conservative from a state McCain can probably win under his own steam (unless Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) is Obama's Veep). However, Daniels has tried repeatedly to raise taxes. The legislature balked every time, but the tax-cutting wing of the Republican party would never stand for him.
  • Jim Gibbons. (R-NV) Oy vey. Sex scandals, nanny scandals, business scandals, The complete trifecta. Then throw in a messy public divorce. While Las Vegas tolerates everything, Kansas doesn't.
  • Jim Douglas (R-VT) is a moderate, which is the only way for a Republican to get elected in this picture postcard blue state. He even signed a bill banning discrimination against gays, which went over well locally but would cause McCain no end of grief with the Base, which doesn't think he is right wing enough. This would be the final nail in his coffin.
  • Dave Heineman (R-NE) is a solid conservative and popular in his state, but McCain will probably sweep Nebraska anyway. However, like Maine, Nebraska awards its electoral votes by congressional district and there is one CD that might turn blue. Still wasting the Veep slot to maybe save one electoral vote is a bad choice.
  • John Hoeven (R-ND) is the nation's most senior and most popular governor but is unknown outside North Dakota, a state McCain will win by 30 points anyway.
  • Jon Huntsman (R-UT) is a relative unknown Mormon from a state that is one of the reddest in the nation.
  • Bobby Jindal (R_LA) is currently a hot item. He is the country's only top-tier Indian-American politican. At 37 he brings youth and lots of buzz to the ticket. However, the 35-year gap with McCain makes McCain look really old and also, it will be tough to attack Obama (46) as too young and inexperienced while simultaneously defending Jindal as old enough and experienced enough. True Jindal has served as governor (for 1 year, congressman (for 4 years), and Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services (for 2 years) but Obama has 12 years of public service if you count his previous jobs. Still, putting Jindal on the ticket would get lots of attention, although the media might find him more fun to follow around than McCain himself. Another plus is that he is very, very conservative, which the Base will love. You can just see those "Jindal in '12" signs and those "Jindal in '16 signs" and ... and those "Jindal in '36" signs already.
  • Butch Otter (R-ID) is a little-known solid conservative from a state where McCain doesn't need any help. Nor does he need help in neighboring Montana or Wyoming.
  • Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) is definitely on the radar. He is a serious, young (47) conservative from a swingish state that Kerry won but with Pawlenty on the ticket (and the GOP convention in St. Paul) might go Republican. Among the sitting governors, he is probably first or second choice.
  • Sonny Perdue (R-GA) is very conservative but unless Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate, lights up like a Christmas tree, McCain can probably win Georgia on his own, albeit by a smaller margin than Bush did.
  • Rick Perry (R-TX) is governor of Texas. Who would he remind people of? Can you think of any other Texas governors who have graduated to the national stage? Maybe better find another governor.
  • Robert Riley (R-AL) is a solid conservative but he doesn't really add any new states.
  • Mike Rounds (R-SD) could have run for the Senate against Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) but decided not to even though he had a good chance. The Republicans had a decent chance to pick up a Senate seat. Some Republicans may feel he doesn't have enough fire in the belly. Besides McCain will win South Dakota by 30 points anyway.
  • Mark Sanford (R-SC) doesn't bring in any new states but he is one of the few top-tier politicans who can appeal both to the Base and also to moderates and independents, no mean feat. In a way, that is precisely what McCain needs, so mark him down as a maybe.
  • Arnie Schwarzenegger(R-CA) is not eligible for the job due to that pesky old 12th amendment (he was born in Austria). Otherwise, he would have a real shot at it, making Obama fight for Californy.

We have three new polls today, two in key states. Obama has a tiny lead in Pennsylvania (within the margin of error) and a larger lead in New Mexico. Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Obama. New Mexico is a true swing state and can go either way.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
New Mexico 47% 39% Jun 18 Jun 18 Rasmussen
Pennsylvania 46% 42% Jun 22 Jun 22 Rasmussen
Utah 33% 52% Jun 19 Jun 19 Rasmussen

The New Mexico Senate race is becoming a complete blowout. Tom Udall is nearly 30 points ahead of Steve Pearce, who is much too conservative for the state as a whole. Since To's cousin, Mark Udall is way ahead in Colorado, we are very likely to have a set of first cousins in the Senate in January.

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
New Mexico Tom Udall 58% Steve Pearce 30% Jun 18 Jun 18 Rasmussen

-- The Votemaster

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