Jun. 29 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 317   McCain 194   Ties 27
Senate Dem 55   GOP 45  
House Dem 238   GOP 197  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
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strong Dem Strong Dem (187)
weak Dem Weak Dem (42)
barely Dem Barely Dem (88)
tied Exactly tied (27)
barely GOP Barely GOP (38)
weak GOP Weak GOP (85)
strong GOP Strong GOP (71)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: NJ RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IN IA NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Clark Blasts McCain's Military Service Obama to Call Bill Clinton
Veep Buzz Rasmussen: McCain Has Trouble in Arizona
SurveyUSA: Obama Slightly Ahead in Virginia Quote of the Day

News from the Votemaster

Updates will probably be late, sporadic, and short for the next couple of days. We should be back to normal by Wednesday.

The Washington Post has a very good story about the changing political geography this year, which may foretell a long-term realignment. The red-blue divide we have had for many years, which was based largely on the culture wars of the 1960s (abortion, gay rights, etc.) may be giving way to a new divide based on who is prospering in the 21st century and who is not. States that have been red for years, like Colorado and Virginia are rapidly turning blue and some blue states like West Virginia are turning red. The reason is that Virginia (especially northern Virginia) and Colorado are doing fine in the new high-tech world and West Virginia, with its antiquated coal mines, is being left behind (although if oil hits $200 a barrel, coal may make a comeback). College-educated, high-income people working in high-tech industries in big cities tend to be Democrats (and Obama supporters) while people working in traditional manufacturing industries and who are being hard hit by the modern economy used to be part of the FDR coalition but are increasingly Republican. It may take several election cycles before the dust settles, but with the Democrats embracing the young, the highly-educated and the urban voters and the Republicans focusing on the South, the blue-collar workers, and the rural voters, the future may look brighter for the Democrats, but who knows?

Politico asked some Republican gurus for plausible but longshot Veep candidates. Here is the list: Bill Gates, Meg Whitman, Eric Cantor, William Cohen, Robert Rubin, Tim Roemer, Donna Shalala, and Colin Powell. It's a pretty wild list. To start with, although Bill Gates retired from Microsoft Friday, his political affiliation is not known. Given his track record of donating billions of dollars to help poor people all over the world, he might well be a Democrat (like his good friend and fellow billionaire Warren Buffet). Colin Powell is known to be disgusted with the Republicans and has hinted he may support Obama shortly. He would never accept a spot on the GOP ticket. He would have been a plausible Democratic Veep with Hillary Clinton, but having two black guys on the Democratic ticket is probably one too many. The rest are indeed longshots.

Only one poll today, in New Jersey.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
New Jersey 49% 33% Jun 17 Jun 23 Fairleigh Dickinson U.

-- The Votemaster

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