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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Republican primaries and caucuses

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News: Updated Mar. 02

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
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News from the Votemaster

Hillary Clinton's "Red phone ad" is still getting a lot of publicity, probably because everything else anyone can say about the primaries Tuesday in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont has already been said. Whether this ad will make a difference remains to be seen. At this moment Barack Obama has a small lead in Texas and a big lead in Vermont. Hillary Clinton has a medium-sized lead in Ohio and a big lead in Rhode Island. But many voters are undecided and some decideds could undecide. This has been an extremely unstable electorate that changes opinions on a dime. Two weeks ago Clinton had a lock on Texas. Now if a landslide happens in Texas it is more likely to be an Obama landslide than a Clinton landslide.

And once again, while the media tend to follow the popular vote and declare winners and losers on that basis, the thing to watch is the delegate count. Due to the rules in all the primary states, it is hard to win the lion's share of the delegates unless you win 65% of the vote. Getting 55% of the vote gets you closer to 50% of the delegates than to 55% of the delegates. The reason, as discussed here last week is that the Texas primary is by state senate district and the Ohio primary is by congressional district. Many of these districts have 4 delegates, so unless a candidate gets 62.5% of the vote in the district, the delegates are split 2-2. A number of others have 6 or 8 delegates, requiring a large victory to get more delegates than the loser. Texas also has a caucus on Tuesday and victories in caucuses require a strong on-the-ground operation, something Obama has demonstrated time and time again in other Western caucus states. If the Texas caucuses go for Obama in a big way and he wins the primary by a little bit, Clinton will need a huge win in Ohio to offset that. Vermont and Rhode Island may balance each other roughly.

Here are today's polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Ohio ARG Mar. 1 51% 44% 59% 23% 15%
Ohio Mason-Dixon Feb. 29 47% 43%      
Ohio Zogby Feb. 29 45% 45% 58% 23% 8%
Rhode Island Fleming and Assocs. Feb. 27 49% 40%      
Texas ARG Mar. 1 47% 47% 61% 26% 9%
Texas Zogby Feb. 29 43% 45% 54% 31% 7%

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, all sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1276 1383 +107   1014   257  
NY Times 1212 1304 +92 12 865 142 205 5
AP 1276 1378 +102 26 1014 257 257 14
CNN 1267 1369 +102 26 1033 255 247 16
ABC 1275 1384 +109 33 966 273 252 14
CBS 1267 1379 +112 26 939 166 210 10
MSNBC 1262 1323 +61   822 282 243 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster