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DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 Click for Republican primaries and caucuses

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News: Updated Mar. 03

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
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News from the Votemaster

Here are today's polls.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Huckabee Paul
Ohio Suffolk U. Mar. 2 52% 40%      
Ohio Zogby Mar. 1 47% 46%      
Texas Belo Mar. 1 46% 46% 56% 31% 6%
Texas Mason-Dixon Feb. 29 45% 46%      
Texas Public Strategies Mar. 1 46% 46% 56% 31% 6%
Texas Zogby Mar. 1 43% 47% 54% 36% 4%

What can we say? The electorate has been so unstable this year so far it is hard to predict a lot. People are changing their minds at the last minute, the number of undecideds is exceptionally high, and despite record turnouts (for primaries), the fraction of eligible voters who vote is still small making it very hard for the pollsters to determine who is going to vote. In addition, independents are allowed to vote in either primary in Texas and in Ohio. In Ohio, they have to fill out a form changing their registration, but they can do that at the polling place. Finally, Texas has a primary and a caucus tomorrow, which few people understand and asking people to go to the polling place twice in the same day favors the candidate with the most dedicated following. Factor in the delegate allocation rules with the majority of the districts having an even number of delegates and it is hard to make a lot of predictions. At this point it seems likely that Barack Obama will do better in Texas than in Ohio and has a good chance to win the most delegates (on account of his track record in caucuses) in Texas. Hillary Clinton seems a bit ahead in Ohio, but even that is not sure, depending on how many independents show up.

Vermont is the only state where there is a clear expectation: Obama will sweep the primary there. Rhode Island, home to many older blue collar workers, is likely to give Clinton a small majority, but if the college students turn out in droves there, even that is unsure.

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

Here are the delegate totals from various news sources rounded to integers (Democrats Abroad has 22 delegates, each with 1/2 vote). The sources differ because in most caucus states, no delegates to the national conventions have been chosen yet, just delegates to the district, county, or state convention. Also, all sources try to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and unpledged delegates, who also get to vote at the convention. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.


Source Clinton Obama BHO-HRC Edwards McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Washington Post 1276 1383 +107   1014   257  
NY Times 1212 1304 +92 12 865 142 205 5
AP 1276 1378 +102 26 1014 257 257 14
CNN 1267 1369 +102 26 1033 255 247 16
ABC 1275 1384 +109 33 966 273 252 14
CBS 1267 1379 +112 26 939 166 210 10
MSNBC 1263 1324 +61   822 282 243 14

Needed to win: Democrats 2025, Republicans 1191.

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster