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News: Updated May 23

Obama Obama won
Clinton Clinton won
Clinton: won popular vote
Obama: most delegates
June June
Click for the Obama-McCain general election map Click for the Clinton-McCain general election map

News from the Votemaster

The real reason candidates drop out of races is that they are out of cash. The NY Times reports that Hillary Clinton has $6 million in the bank but debts of $20 million. Barack Obama has over $30 million in the bank and no appreciable debts. Fortunately for Clinton, the remaining states and Puerto Rico are cheap media markets. On the other hand, the remaining supers who are elected politicians know very well how important the ability to raise money is and have a lot of respect for anyone who can do it extremely well.

Some more general election polls today, unfortunately not for both Democrats. Maybe the other half will be released tomorrow. One extremely strange result is Obama beating McCain in Virginia 49% to 42%, especially since yesterday a poll from Virginia Commonwealth University had McCain winning Virginia. SurveyUSA says that Obama wins in the 18-34 year-old group by 24%, gradually dropping with age to a McCain lead of 15% among 65+ voters. Also noteworthy is that Obama leads by 85% among blacks (to be expected) but also by 32% among latinos. If Obama can win the young people, the blacks, the latinos, the college-educated, and the people making over $50,000, he may be able to put together a winning coalition. Also noteworthy in this poll is the geographical distribution. Obama is very strong in the D.C. suburbs of northern Virginia and weak in the Shenandoah region.

State Clinton McCain Start End Pollster
California 51% 39% May 12 May 18 Public Policy Inst. of CA
California 54% 35% May 19 May 20 Rasmussen
Florida 48% 41% May 13 May 20 Quinnipiac U.
Nevada 46% 41% May 20 May 20 Rasmussen
Ohio 48% 41% May 13 May 20 Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania 50% 37% May 13 May 20 Quinnipiac U.
State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
California 52% 38% May 19 May 19 Rasmussen
Nevada 40% 46% May 20 May 20 Rasmussen
Virginia 49% 42% May 16 May 18 SurveyUSA

The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

A few more supers committed yesterday. Average the six news sources, Clinton has 1778 delegates to Obama's 1964, a lead of 186 for Obama with 309 delegates yet to be determined. To win, Clinton needs 248 of the 309 or 80%. We still have Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota to go, but getting 80% of what's left seems very unlikely. In particular, since Obama has already won a majority of the pledged delegates, why would the supers massively overturn the will of the voters? And if they were planning to do that, why wait any longer?


Source Clinton Obama Obama-Clinton
NY Times 1775 1963 +188
AP 1780 1965 +185
CNN 1779 1965 +186
ABC 1773 1967 +194
CBS 1775 1957 +182
MSNBC 1785 1964 +179

Needed to win: 2026

Here is another source for delegate totals.

-- The Votemaster