Murphy and Tedisco Exactly Tied

As the counties in the NY-20 congressional district check and recheck their totals, the numbers are changing slightly. Right now, the race is officially an exact tie with each candidate having 77,225 votes. However, Talking Points Memo is reporting that Murphy has picked up another 198 votes as Washington County rechecked its totals. These kinds of changes are normal as arithmetic mistakes made under pressure on election night are fixed during the next few days. Nevertheless, the absentee ballots have not yet been counted and they will decide the race. The counting is likely to happen on April 14.

Court Strikes Down Same-Sex Marriage Ban in Iowa

In a unanimous decision, the Iowa Supreme Court voided a state law saying that a marriage must be between one man and one woman. Starting May 1, same-sex couples can get married in Iowa.

This decision immensely complicates the 2012 election for the Republicans. For social conservatives like Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (R) it is a twofer: they can campaign for the Iowa caucuses by railing against (1) gay marriage and (2) activist judges. Iowa's Republicans are deeply conservative and by moving the hot-button social issues to the front burner, Palin and Huckabee benefit from this. Mitt Romney is currently against gay marriage, but Iowa Republicans can never be sure what position he will take a week later in New Hampshire.

If Palin and Huckabee finish first and second in Iowa, in whichever order, whoever finishes fourth will have a hard time recovering in New Hampshire. If the #3 finisher is a relative moderate, such as Romney or Gov. John Huntsman (R-UT), he could still have a good shot at winning the New Hampshire primary. While winning Iowa is no guarantee of getting the nomination (just ask Mike Huckabee), it certainly is a good start. As a consequence, the likelihood of the Republicans nominating a highly conservative, deeply religious candidate has been greatly increased by the Iowa court decision.

The problem for the Republicans is that highly conservative, deeply religious candidates don't play well in many swing states, especially Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, and Florida, and not at all well with independent voters. This decision may stoke up the Republican base to nominate someone very popular with hard core Republicans, but incapable of winning the general election, especially if the recession is over by 2012. This decision couldn't have happened in a worse state for the Republicans.

More Governors' Races

Here is the next batch of governors' races: the Upper Midwest.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ted Strickland (D)	(R)	Ted Strickland crushed his Republican opponent, Ken Blackwell, in 2006 and has remained relatively popular since then. But with the Ohio economy in the toilet people need to blame someone and the governor is always on everyone's short list. Still, he has no serious Democratic opposition and probably not much serious Republican opposition either. Former senator Mike DeWine (R), former representative John Kasich (R), and Secretary of State Kevin Coughlin (R) have all been named as possible candidates, but it remains to see which of them, if any, will actually run. No matter who the Republican nominee is, Strickland starts out in the lead.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Doyle (D)	(R)	Wisconsin law allows Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI) to run for a third term and he is likely to do so. He is not wildly popular, but he is not wildly unpopular either. He is acceptable to most people and hasn't made any major mistakes or been involved in any scandals, and that is usually enough for an incumbent to win. Doyle is helped by the Republicans' lack of a top-tier candidate. Attorney General Van Hollen (R) is probably their best bet, but Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) is mulling a bid. If Doyle runs, he is certainly the favorite.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Pat Quinn (D)	(R)	Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) became governor when his predecessor, Rod Blagojevich, was impeached and convicted. So far, Quinn doesn't appear touched by the state's boundless corruption, but when you weren't elected to your current office, you are always vulnerable. Primary challenges by Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D), state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D), and Bill Daley (D), who served in Bill Clinton's cabinet, are all possibilities. The Republicans don't have a deep bench here, with representatives Mark Kirk (R) and Peter Roskam (R) being the strongest, although they might both decide that badly damaged Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) is an easier target.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Open seat. Term-limited governor Jennifer Granholm (D-MI) is leaving, which is probably a good thing for the Democrats as she was not all that popular. Also, the economy of her state is a complete disaster, although it is not really her fault that General Motors has little interest in producing cars that people actually want to buy. Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D-MI) is next in line and may try to grab the brass ring, however, Flint mayor Don Williamson (D) and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) may challenge him in a primary. The Republicans have plenty of possibles here, including Attorney General Mike Cox (R), Secretary of State Terri Land (R), and quite a few members of Congress. Michigan definitely offers the Republicans a good shot at a pickup.

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