Electoral-vote.com: Election news

Feb. 15

Senate Dem 59 GOP 41

House Dem 255 GOP 178

2010 Senate Races (colors are from 2004 races for the time being)

Wyoming
No Senate election in 2010
John Barrasso (R) is up in 2012
Michael Enzi (R) is up in 2014

Wisconsin
Strong Democrat
Russ Feingold (D): 55%
Unknown (R): 44%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

West Virginia
No Senate election in 2010
Robert Byrd (D) is up in 2012
Jay Rockefeller (D) is up in 2014

Washington
Strong Democrat
Patty Murray (D): 55%
Unknown (R): 43%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Virginia
No Senate election in 2010
Jim Webb (D) is up in 2012
Mark Warner (D) is up in 2014

Vermont
Strong Democrat
Pat Leahy (D): 71%
Unknown (R): 25%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Utah
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 28%
Robert Bennett (R): 69%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Texas
No Senate election in 2010
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is up in 2012
John Cornyn (R) is up in 2014

Tennessee
No Senate election in 2010
Bob Corker (R) is up in 2012
Lamar Alexander (R) is up in 2014

South Dakota
Barely Republican
Unknown (D): 49%
John Thune (R): 51%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

South Carolina
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 44%
Jim DeMint (R): 54%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Rhode Island
No Senate election in 2010
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) is up in 2012
Jack Reed (D) is up in 2014

Pennsylvania
Strong Democrat
Unknown (D): 53%
Pat Toomey (R): 42%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Oregon
Strong Democrat
Ron Wyden (D): 63%
Unknown (R): 32%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Oklahoma
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 41%
Tom Coburn (R): 53%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Ohio
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 36%
Rob Portman (R): 64%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

North Dakota
Strong Democrat
Unknown (D): 68%
John Hoeven (R): 32%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

North Carolina
Weak Republican
Unknown (D): 47%
Richard Burr (R): 52%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

New York
Strong Democrat
Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 67%
Unknown (R): 31%

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) is sure to win
so only the junior seat is being tracked

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

New Mexico
No Senate election in 2010
Jeff Bingaman (D) is up in 2012
Tom Udall (D) is up in 2014

New Jersey
No Senate election in 2010
Bob Menendez (D) is up in 2012
Frank Lautenberg (D) is up in 2014

New Hampshire
Strong Republican
Paul Hodes (D): 34%
Unknown (R): 66%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Nevada
Strong Democrat
Harry Reid (D): 61%
Unknown (R): 35%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Nebraska
No Senate election in 2010
Ben Nelson (D) is up in 2012
Mike Johanns (R) is up in 2014

Montana
No Senate election in 2010
Jon Tester (D) is up in 2012
Max Baucus (D) is up in 2014

Missouri
Strong Republican
Robin Carnahan (D): 43%
Roy Blunt (R): 56%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Mississippi
No Senate election in 2010
Roger Wicker (R) is up in 2012
Thad Cochran (R) is up in 2014

Minnesota
No Senate election in 2010
Amy Klobuchar (D) is up in 2012
Al Franken (D) is up in 2014

Michigan
No Senate election in 2010
Debbie Stabenow (D) is up in 2012
Carl Levin (D) is up in 2014

Massachusetts
No Senate election in 2010
Scott Brown is up in 2012
John Kerry (D) is up in 2014

Maryland
Strong Democrat
Barbara Mikulski (D): 65%
Unknown (R): 34%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Maine
No Senate election in 2010
Olympia Snowe (R) is up in 2012
Susan Collins (R) is up in 2014

Louisiana
Barely Republican
Charlie Melancon (D): 47%
David Vitter 51%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Kentucky
Barely Republican
Unknown (D): 49%
Unknown (R) 51%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Kansas
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 28%
Unknown (R): 69%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Iowa
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 28%
Chuck Grassley (R): 70%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Indiana
Strong Democrat
Evan Bayh (D): 62%
Unknown (R): 37%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Illinois
Strong Democrat
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 70%
Mark Kirk (R): 27%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Idaho
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 1%
Mike Crapo (R): 99%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Hawaii
Strong Democrat
Daniel Inouye (D): 76%
Unknown (R): 21%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Georgia
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 40%
Johnny Isakson (R): 58%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Florida
Barely Republican
Unknown (D): 48%
Unknown (R): 49%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Delaware
Strong Democrat
Unknown (D): 65%
Mike Castle (R): 35%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Connecticut
Strong Democrat
Richard Blumenthal (D): 66%
Unknown (R): 32%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Colorado
Barely Democrat
Michael Bennet (D): 51%
Jane Norton (R): 47%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

California
Strong Democrat
Barbara Boxer (D): 58%
Unknown (R): 38%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Arkansas
Strong Democrat
Blanche Lincoln (D): 56%
Unknown (R): 44%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Arizona
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 21%
John McCain (R): 76%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Alaska
Barely Republican
Unknown (D): 46%
Lisa Murkowski (R): 49%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Alabama
Strong Republican
Unknown (D): 32%
Richard Shelby (R): 68%

Source: Election 2004 (Nov 02)

Downloadable polling data

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	Strong Dem
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	Barely Dem
	Exactly tied
	Barely GOP
	Weak GOP
	Strong GOP
Map algorithm explained

Senate polls today:	(None)
Dem pickups (vs. 2004):	PA	GOP pickups (vs. 2004):	(None)

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News from the Votemaster

More House Retirements Permalink

There has been a spate of announcements from House members planning to call it quits at the end of their current terms. These include Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Diane Watson (D-CA), and Vern Ehlers (R-MI). Here is the complete list of seats in which the 2008 winner will not be running for reelection this November. Most are open seats, but some are seats that have been or will be filled by special elections. The winners of these elections are never as secure as representatives who have served at least a full term.

The list is ordered by PVI, with the top entry being the most Democratic district and the bottom one being the most Republican district. The colors reflect the party of the current incumbent, not the 2008 winner. Red lines (Republican-held seats) above D+0 represent possible Democratic pickups. Blue lines (Democratic-held seats) below D+0 represent possible Republican pickups. By this metric, the Democrats have two pickup opportunities and the Republicans have nine. But, of course, in the middle ground, there will be intense battles where the PVI is only a hint of which way it might go.

CD	2008 Winner	Party	PVI	Open?	Notes
IL-07	Danny Davis	Dem	D+35	Yes	Running for Cook County President
CA-33	Diane Watson	Dem	D+35	Yes	Could easily be reelected but at 76 she's had enough
FL-17	Kendrick Meek	Dem	D+34	Yes	Running for Mel Martinez' open Senate seat
CA-31	Hilda Solis	Dem	D+29	No	Resigned to become Sec. of Labor
IL-05	Rahm Emanuel	Dem	D+19	No	Resigned to become WH Chief of Staff
AL-07	Artur Davis	Dem	D+18	Yes	Running for governor
FL-19	Robert Wexler	Dem	D+15	No	Joined a nonprofit organization in January 2010
RI-01	Patrick Kennedy	Dem	D+13	Yes	Wants to do something else with his life
HI-01	Neil Abercrombie	Dem	D+11	Yes	Running for governor
CA-10	Ellen Tauscher	Dem	D+11	No	Appointed Undersecretary of State
DE-AL	Mike Castle	GOP	D+7	Yes	Running for the Senate
IL-10	Mark Kirk	GOP	D+6	Yes	Running for Roland Burris' open Senate seat
PA-07	Joe Sestak	Dem	D+3	Yes	Running for senator
NH-02	Paul Hodes	Dem	D+0	Yes	Running for Judd Gregg's open Senate seat
WA-03	Brian Baird	Dem	D+0	Yes	Apparently just bored; he's young and popular
NY-23	John McHugh	Dem	R+1	No	Appointed Secretary of the Army
PA-12	John Murtha	Dem	R+1	No	Murtha died; special election this Spring
NY-20	Kirsten Gillibrand	Dem	R+2	No	Appointed to Hillary Clinton's Senate seat
KS-03	Dennis Moore	Dem	R+3	Yes	No apparent reason; he wasn't even a big target
FL-21	Lincoln Diaz-Balart	GOP	R+5	Yes	No reason given
AR-02	Vic Snyder	Dem	R+5	Yes	Polls looked bad and he has 4 young childen
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	GOP	R+5	Yes	Running for his brother's open seat in FL-21
TN-08	John Tanner	Dem	R+6	Yes	At 65, he's had enough of politics
MI-03	Vern Ehlers	GOP	R+6	Yes	At 76 he didn't want to deal with a primary challenge
FL-12	Adam Putnam	GOP	R+6	Yes	Running for Agriculture Commissioner
AR-01	Marion Berry	Dem	R+8	Yes	Probably afraid he might lose
AZ-03	John Shadegg	GOP	R+9	Yes	After 8 terms, he wants to move on
CA-19	George Radanovich	GOP	R+9	Yes	His wife has ovarian cancer
MI-02	Peter Hoekstra	GOP	R+9	Yes	Running for governor
SC-01	Henry Brown	GOP	R+10	Yes	He's 74 and tired of being in the minority
LA-03	Charlie Melancon	Dem	R+12	Yes	Running for the Senate against Vitter
TN-06	Bart Gordon	Dem	R+13	Yes	At a young 60, he had decided he's had enough
OK-05	Mary Fallin	GOP	R+13	Yes	Running for governor
TN-03	Zach Wamp	GOP	R+13	Yes	Running for governor
IN-04	Steve Buyer	GOP	R+14	Yes	His wife has an incurable autoimmune disease
KS-04	Todd Tiahrt	GOP	R+14	Yes	Running for Sam Brownback's open Senate seat
SC-03	Greshman Barrett	GOP	R+17	Yes	Running for governor
MO-07	Roy Blunt	GOP	R+17	Yes	Running for the Kit Bond's open Senate seat
KS-01	Jerry Moran	GOP	R+23	Yes	Running for Sam Brownback's open Senate seat
GA-09	Nathan Deal	GOP	R+28	Yes	Running for governor

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