Sep. 17 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Senate Dem 52   GOP 48  
House Dem 220   GOP 184   Ties 31

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strong Dem Strong Dem (47)
weak Dem Weak Dem (3)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (3)
weak GOP Weak GOP (5)
strong GOP Strong GOP (40)
strong Ind Strong Ind (0)
weak Ind Weak Ind (0)
barely Ind Barely Ind (0)
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Senate polls today: AR DE IL NH NV VT WA RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: AR CO IL IN ND PA WI PDA

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Bonus Quote of the Day Obama's Palin Dilemma
Looks Like Murkowski is Running Unnamed Republican Can't Beat Obama

News from the Votemaster            

O'Donnell Win Continues to Reverberate     Permalink

Christine O'Donnell's victory in the Delaware GOP senatorial primary Tuesday is continuing to echo all the way to 2012. The new conventional wisdom is that there will be two Republican presidential primaries in 2012: one for the tea-party vote and one for the big business vote. Then in the home stretch, the two winners will battle it out for dominance. However, this view may not make it past Nov. 2, 2010, when we will find out just how well tea party candidates do in general elections. That they do well in closed Republican primaries in an off-year with the economy in the toilet is not the same thing as saying they will do well in a presidential election year with a better economy in a general election. Still, catering to the whims of the tea party has replaced catering to the whims of the religious right as the wisdom du jour. The remaining moderates within the GOP House caucus are naturally upset about this development and fret about the party's long-term future if it continues to purge any politician to the left of Sarah Palin. Even conservative Republican pundits are now worried, recalling the ideologically pure, but not terribly successful 1964 campaign of Barry Goldwater.

Advice to Obama from Democratic Strategists     Permalink

Most Democratic politicians up for (re)election in November are slowly coming to realize that they can't run away from President Obama. For better or worse, their fate is tied to his and they are getting edgy that he is doing so little to help them. Politico canvassed 20 Democratic operatives to find out what they thought Obama should do and came up with five pieces of advice, briefly summarized as follows:

  1. Stop talking about the administration's achievements; the voters aren't feeling them yet
  2. Focus on economics: we are fighting for the middle class, the Republicans are blocking us
  3. Play the crazy card: say that the GOP has been taken over by extremists
  4. Reestablish Obama's personal connection with the people
  5. Stop hammering House minority leader Boehner but have surrogates do it

Of course, if Politico had asked a different bunch of insiders they would probably have gotten different responses. For example, he could challenge each of the three Republican leaders, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Rep, John Boehner (R-OH), and RNC chairman Michael Steele to debate him on the issues for an hour. But the basic message is that Obama is the leader of his party as well as his country and has to take a much more active role in the midterms than he has until now.

Palin to Speak in Iowa Today     Permalink

Former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is going to Iowa today to speak at a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party. All the tea-leaf readers see this appearance as the first step on the road to a presidential run in 2012. That may or may not be so, but Palin will certainly generate good will among Iowa Republican activists by helping the local party raise money and due to the way the Iowa caucus system works, their good will good translate into shoe leather on her behalf two years from now, should she decide to run. But a major obstacle to her candidacy is that her style of campaigning--issuing tweets from time to time--just won't work in Iowa, where many people won't consider voting for anyone until they have personally met the candidate two or three times. If she wants to win there, she will have to trudge through the snow for weeks like all the other hopefuls, and it is not clear if she has the stomach (and feet) for that. Still, a speech like today's can't hurt.

Today's Polls: AR DE IL NH NV VT WA DE-AL KS-04 MN-06     Permalink

New Senate Polls

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Ind. I-pct Start End Pollster
Arkansas Blanche Lincoln* 34% John Boozman 51%     Sep 12 Sep 14 Mason Dixon
Delaware Chris Coons 50% Christine O-Donnell 34%     Sep 11 Sep 12 PPP
Delaware Chris Coons 53% Christine O-Donnell 42%     Sep 15 Sep 15 Rasmussen
Illinois Alexi Giannoulias 36% Mark Kirk 39%     Sep 13 Sep 13 We Ask America
New Hampshire Paul Hodes 43% Kelly Ayotte 47%     Sep 11 Sep 12 PPP
New Hampshire Paul Hodes 44% Kelly Ayotte 51%     Sep 15 Sep 15 Rasmussen
Nevada Harry Reid* 46% Sharron Angle 44%     Sep 12 Sep 12 IPSOS
Vermont Pat Leahy* 63% Len Britton 32%     Sep 13 Sep 13 Rasmussen
Washington Patty Murray* 51% Dino Rossi 46%     Sep 14 Sep 14 Rasmussen

New House Polls

Cong. Distr. Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct I-pct Start End Pollster
DE-AL John Carney 47% Glen Urquhart 37%     Sep 11 Sep 12 PPP
KS-04 Raj Goyle 40% Mike Pompeo 50%     Sep 14 Sep 15 SurveyUSA
MN-06 Tarryl Clark 40% Michele Bachmann* 49% _MN-06!I 01% Sep 13 Sep 15 SurveyUSA

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Recent Headlines (clickable)

Sep16 Senate: Dem 51 GOP 48 Ties 1 House: Dem 220 GOP 184 Ties 31
Sep16 Ayotte Wins in New Hampshire
Sep16 NRSC Now Supports O'Donnell
Sep16 2010 Looks Like a Good Year for Incumbents
Sep16 Obama Names Warren as Interim Head of Consumer Agency
Sep16 Today's Polls: CO FL NV OH OR PA WA WA-03
Sep15 O'Donnell Defeats Castle in Delaware GOP Senatorial Primary
Sep15 New Hampshire Too Close to Call
Sep15 Paladino Beats Lazio, for GOP Gubernatorial Nomination in New York
Sep15 Rangel Beats Powell in in New York
Sep15 Many Contested House Primaries in New York State
Sep15 O'Donnell's Win Could Start a Civil War within the GOP on Nov. 3
Sep15 Today's Polls: CA CT FL KY NC NV OH PA VT CA-19 CA-20 NV-03
Sep14 Today's Polls: GA WA IL-17 NV-03
Sep14 Delaware Republican Senatorial Primary Today
Sep14 New Hampshire Republican Senatorial Primary Today
Sep14 Other Primaries Today
Sep13 Today's Polls: ID
Sep13 New House Table Available
Sep13 O'Donnell Leads Castle in Delaware
Sep13 Boehner Would Support Middle-Class Tax Cut
Sep12 Today's Polls: NV OR
Sep11 Today's Polls: CT NC SD-AL
Sep11 Some Thoughts on Sept. 11
Sep11 Nate Silver Predicts GOP has a 2/3 Chance of Taking the House
Sep11 New Definition of Pickup
Sep10 Today's Polls: AZ IL MO WV
Sep10 Palin Endorses O'Donnell in Delaware
Sep10 Today's Polls
Sep09 Obama Opposes Extending Bush Tax Cuts for the Wealthy
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