Feb. 05 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama ?   Republican ?  
Senate Dem ?   GOP ?  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report

strong Dem Strong Dem (253)
weak Dem Weak Dem (32)
barely Dem Barely Dem (73)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (13)
weak GOP Weak GOP (42)
strong GOP Strong GOP (125)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: (None) iPhone RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: (None) PDA

PW logo Obama Takes Back Lead in Virginia Santorum Sweeps
Obama Gets Lucky Election Results
New Poll Shows Paul Jumping Into Second What it Takes

News from the Votemaster

Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses     Permalink

Mitt Romney easily won the Nevada caucuses yesterday as expected. Vote counting is going extremely slowly because Republican officials in Nevada do not want a repeat of what happened in Iowa with the results being reported incorrectly on the night of the caucuses only to be corrected two weeks later. With 45% of the vote tallied as of 6 A.M. EST, the votes were as follows.

Candidate Votes Pct
Mitt Romney 7,089 43%
Newt Gingrich 4,323 26%
Ron Paul 3,061 18%
Rick Santorum 2,157 13%

If these results hold, it will be a blow to Ron Paul, who has worked hard in the state and hoped to come in second. The results also show that even in a state where a quarter of the Republican electorate consists of Mormons, Romney has a tough time cracking 50%. But as long as the opposition continues to be badly fragmented, Romney's ship will continue to have clear sailing.

Update 1: With 71% of the vote counted, it's Romney 48%, Gingrich 23%, Paul 19%, Santorum 11%
Update 2: With 100% counted, it's Romney 50%, Gingrich 21%, Paul 19%, Santorum 10%

Republican Primary and Caucus Schedule     Permalink

With Nevada behind us, it is time to move on to the next events. On Tuesday, Colorado and Minnesota will hold precinct-level caucuses to elect delegates to the county-level caucuses later in the Spring. In addition, Missouri will hold a completely useless beauty contest that will cost the taxpayers about $7 million but will select no delegates to the Republican National Convention. The actual selection process will begin March 17 at the Republican caucuses. State legislators passed a bill that would have moved the primary to a later date, but that bill contained many other items that Gov. Jay Nixon (D-MO) found objectionable and vetoed.

One noteworthy aspect of the Missouri primary though is that Newt Gingrich didn't bother to get on the ballot (because no delegates will be selected). As a consequence, Rick Santorum has a chance to show what he can do in a key swing state absent Gingrich.

Below is a list of this year's dates of the Republican primaries and caucuses that occur before April 1, 2012.

State Delegates Date Type Winner
Iowa 28 January 3 Caucus Rick Santorum
New Hampshire 12 January 10 Primary Mitt Romney
South Carolina 25 January 21 Primary Newt Gingrich
Florida 50 January 31 Primary Mitt Romney
Nevada 28 February 4 Caucus Mitt Romney
Colorado 36 February 7 Caucus  
Minnesota 40 February 7 Caucus  
Missouri 0 February 7 Beauty contest  
Maine 24 February 11 Caucus  
Northern Marianas 9 February 11 Caucus  
Arizona 29 February 28 Primary  
Michigan 30 February 28 Primary  
Washington 43 March 3 Caucus  
Alaska 27 March 6 Caucus  
Georgia 76 March 6 Primary  
Idaho 32 March 6 Caucus  
Massachusetts 41 March 6 Primary  
North Dakota 28 March 6 Caucus  
Ohio 66 March 6 Primary  
Oklahoma 43 March 6 Primary  
Tennessee 58 March 6 Primary  
Vermont 17 March 6 Primary  
Virginia 49 March 6 Primary  
Guam 9 March 10 Caucus  
Kansas 40 March 10 Caucus  
Virgin Islands 9 March 10 Caucus  
Wyoming 29 March 10 Caucus  
Alabama 50 March 13 Primary  
American Samoa 9 March 13 Caucus  
Hawaii 20 March 13 Caucus  
Mississippi 40 March 13 Primary  
Missouri 52 March 17 Caucus  
Puerto Rico 23 March 18 Primary  
Illinois 69 March 20 Primary  
Louisiana 46 March 24 Primary  
Total 1196      

It is important to distinguish the elections before and after April 1 because the ones before it all require some form of allocating the delegates proportionally whereas those after it do not have this requirement. The states are free to determine themselves what "proportionally" means. One way is simply to say if a candidate gets x% of the vote he gets x% of the delegates. But that is not the only possibility. Another scheme is winner-take-all per county or per congressional district. In this scheme, you have to actually win in some geographical part of the state to get any delegates. The April 1 cutoff is especially important to Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul. Before this date, they can continue accumulating delegates, which increases their power at the convention. After April 1, Romney is likely to get a plurality in most, if not all, states, and thus all the delegates. So for the second tier, it is April 1 or bust.

Here is the schedule for primaries after April 1.

State Delegates Date Type Winner
District of Columbia 19 April 3 Primary                                    
Maryland 37 April 3 Primary                                    
Texas 155 April 3 Primary                                    
Wisconsin 42 April 3 Primary                                    
Connecticut 28 April 24 Primary                                    
Delaware 17 April 24 Primary                                    
New York 95 April 24 Primary                                    
Pennsylvania 72 April 24 Primary                                    
Rhode Island 19 April 24 Primary                                    
Indiana 46 May 8 Primary                                    
North Carolina 55 May 8 Primary                                    
West Virginia 31 May 8 Primary                                    
Nebraska 35 May 15 Primary                                    
Oregon 28 May 15 Primary                                    
Arkansas 36 May 22 Primary                                    
Kentucky 45 May 22 Primary                                    
California 172 June 5 Primary                                    
Montana 26 June 5 Primary                                    
New Jersey 50 June 5 Primary                                    
New Mexico 23 June 5 Primary                                    
South Dakota 28 June 5 Primary                                    
Utah 40 June 26 Primary                                    
Total 1099      

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster

Previous headlines

Feb04 Romney Expected to Win Big at Nevada Caucuses Today
Feb04 Economy is Improving
Feb01 Romney Wins Decisively in Florida
Jan31 Romney Set to Win Big in Florida
Jan31 Santorum Faces Easy Choice Tomorrow
Jan31 Prediction: Florida Will Win Today
Jan27 Romney Takes Off the Gloves in Final Florida Debate
Jan27 Romney Failed to List Foreign Investments on Legal Form
Jan25 Obama Lays Groundwork for a Populist Campaign in State-of-the-Union Speech
Jan24 Romney Releases 2010 Tax Return
Jan24 Role Reversal in the Debate: Romney Attacks, Gingrich Plays Defense
Jan24 Fred Thompson Endorses Newt Gingrich
Jan22 Gingrich Crushes Romney in South Carolina
Jan20 Perry Drops Out and Endorses Gingrich
Jan20 Gingrich Surging in South Carolina
Jan20 Gingrich's Second Wife Attacks Him
Jan20 Romney Loses His Win in Iowa
Jan20 Romney Reported to Have Millions of Dollars in the Cayman Islands
Jan20 The Final Four Take Off the Gloves in the Last Debate before the South Carolina Primary
Jan17 Hard-Hitting Debate in South Carolina Changes Nothing
Jan16 Huntsman Expected to Drop Out Today and Endorse Romney
Jan16 Why is the Republican Field So Weak?
Jan16 South Carolina Debate Tonight
Jan15 Social Conservatives Agree to Back Santorum
Jan13 Eleventh Commandment Repealed
Jan11 NH: Romney 39%, Paul 23%, Huntsman 17%, Gingrich 9%, Santorum 9%
Jan11 Charlie Cook: Redistricting is Politically Neutral
Jan10 Romney Leads Going into the New Hampshire Primary Today
Jan10 Gingrich Goes Negative in South Carolina
Jan08 Romney Survives Debate Unscathed
Jan08 Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it
Jan05 Bachmann Drops Out
Jan05 Perry Hesitates, but Stays In
Jan05 Movement Conservatives Attempt to Find a Consensus Candidate
Jan04 Iowa: Romney 24.6%, Santorum 24.6%, Paul 21.4%, Gingrich 13.3%
Jan03 All Eyes on Iowa Today
Jan03 The Horse Race as a Horse Race
Jan01 Happy New Presidential Election Year
Jan01 Iowa Caucuses Are This Tuesday
Jan01 Final Selzer Poll: Romney and Paul on top but Santorum Rising

WWW www.electoral-vote.com