Dem
47
GOP
53
At the outset of last week, there were three House seats still up in the air. Now, the total is one, and even that one is probably just a day or two from being decided.
The first seat among the trio to be resolved was the one in CA-45. Democratic challenger Derek Tran is up by about 600 votes, and Rep. Michelle Steel (R) concluded that there was no circumstance under which that gap would be erased. The fact that all the major outlets had called the seat for Tran probably helped bring some clarity to her thinking. In any event, she has conceded.
Next up was the seat representing IA-01. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) was up by just 801 votes when the initial counting was concluded, so challenger Christina Bohannon asked for a recount. As we have noted many times, the votes that change during a recount are almost exclusively leaner non-votes that become votes and leaner votes that become non-votes. Barring some systematic problem with the ballot design, or the voting process, it's basically a series of coin flips. And one candidate is not going to win 800 more coin flips than the other. In fact, once all was said and done, Bohannon picked up... three votes. So, Miller-Meeks is now your official winner.
That means that the only seat that is still unresolved is CA-13, where Rep. John Duarte (R) is trailing Adam Gray by 143 votes out of a little over 310,000 cast. The good news for Duarte is that, over the weekend, he gained ground on Gray, picking up about 80 votes. The bad news is that time is running out. The only remaining ballots are ones that need to be "cured," and volunteers for both campaigns spent the Thanksgiving weekend knocking on doors trying to reach the casters of those ballots. After so much effort has already been expended, the Duarte camp is not likely to be able to find another 143 uncured voters, especially since the deadline for certifying the results is supposed to be today. So, this one is almost certainly going to go to the Democrat Gray.
Assuming Gray does hold on, then there will be 220 Republicans in the House and 215 Democrats. And even if Gray stumbles at the finish line, there will be 214 members of the blue team. Interestingly, and we have not seen anyone who has pointed this out, either way it means the Democrats will have more members in the 119th House than they had at any time during the meeting of the 118th House. In the 118th, the Democrats largely alternated between having 212 and 213 members, dropping to 211 on one occasion for about a month (from the death of Bill Pascrell on Aug. 21, 2024, until the seating of LaMonica McIver as the replacement for Donald Payne on Sept. 18, 2024).
Meanwhile, the Republican Conference in the 118th House started at 222 members, dropped as low as 217 members, and mostly hovered around 219-220 members. Assuming Gray wins, then the 119th House will have 220 Republican members. So, the cat herding will be just a bit harder this time than it was last time (because more Democrats, same number of Republicans). And, of course, the moment the 119th House convenes, 3 Republicans will vanish, as Matt Gaetz' resignation becomes official, and Elise Stefanik and Mike Waltz will depart for jobs in the Trump administration. So, Speaker Mike Johnson will start with a 217-215 "advantage." As we have pointed out, that will mean that every Republican member will have a veto for the next several months, as long as the Democrats stay united. Good luck with that, Mike (and keep reading). (Z)