Dem
51
GOP
49
Here is a batch of new polls from Morning Consult, all starting on July 1—so, 3 days after the debate. This gave people time to absorb the debate and learn about what the media had to say about it. Morning Consult is a professional pollster and is no doubt doing its best. They work for, among others, Bloomberg News, and getting it wrong is not good for future business. That said, the polls are a mixed bag compared to other polls. This suggests that there is a lot of volatility and quite a few people aren't sure what they will do. The election may well come down to which side is better at turnout. In any event, because Biden has not consistently tanked in all the swing states, he may decide to hang in there, despite increasingly many Democrats now pleading with him to drop out. This will lead to those famous "Democrats in disarray" news stories. Of course, most voters don't vote based on any kind of news stories. Our take is this round of polling at this moment may stiffen Biden's resolve to stay in. In the end, it's his call alone. (V)
| State | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | 45% | 48% | Jul 01 | Jul 05 | Morning Consult |
| Georgia | 46% | 47% | Jul 01 | Jul 04 | Morning Consult |
| Michigan | 48% | 43% | Jul 01 | Jul 05 | Morning Consult |
| North Carolina | 43% | 46% | Jul 01 | Jul 04 | Morning Consult |
| Nevada | 45% | 48% | Jul 01 | Jul 04 | Morning Consult |
| Pennsylvania | 44% | 51% | Jul 01 | Jul 04 | Morning Consult |
| Wisconsin | 47% | 44% | Jul 01 | Jul 05 | Morning Consult |