Dem
51
GOP
49
Our earlier statement that the "northern route" (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) looks easier than the "southern route" (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina) still holds. But again, we don't have much faith in the details of polls this early. For example, is Trump really going to come in below 50% in Tennessee?
| State | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | 41% | 44% | May 07 | May 14 | Noble Predictive Insights |
| Arizona | 44% | 49% | May 07 | May 13 | Morning Consult |
| Georgia | 44% | 47% | May 07 | May 13 | Morning Consult |
| Michigan | 46% | 45% | May 07 | May 13 | Morning Consult |
| North Carolina | 42% | 49% | May 07 | May 13 | Morning Consult |
| New Hampshire | 42% | 36% | May 06 | May 14 | U. of Mass. |
| Nevada | 47% | 47% | May 07 | May 13 | Morning Consult |
| New York | 47% | 38% | May 13 | May 15 | Siena Coll. |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 48% | May 07 | May 13 | Morning Consult |
| Tennessee | 29% | 47% | Apr 26 | May 09 | Vanderbilt U. |
| Wisconsin | 46% | 47% | May 07 | May 13 | Morning Consult |