Dem
47
GOP
53
Democrats want a fight and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) wants to provide it. Newsom has decided that he will go to the mat to redistrict California to at least offset the seats Texas will try to win for Republicans and maybe those of Ohio as well. We discussed the possible redistricting of California last week. Here is the item again if you need a refresher course. In short, picking off four Republican districts will be relatively easy. Three others (R+7, R+8, and R+8, respectively) could be made competitive, so the Democrats at least have a fighting chance there.
Newsom is betting his future career on this ploy. If it works and California elects 4-7 more Democrats to the House than it has now, Newsom will be seen by Democrats as a fighter. This will greatly enhance his 2028 presidential campaign. If he fails to do so after announcing that he is going for it, he will be seen as a failure and his presidential campaign will be badly wounded. John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who works with Democrats across the country, said of Newsom's plan: "This is a 'fu** you, we're going to match your scorched earth with our scorched earth.'"
What could go wrong? Well, first, the California state Constitution has to be changed to yank back redistricting power from the independent commission, at least for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 House elections, and maybe beyond. That requires a ballot initiative passing. Putting it on the ballot and calling for a special election is easy. Winning the special election will take some industrial-strength salesmanship on Newsom's part, especially since former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will be campaigning vigorously against the measure.
If the measure goes down, so does Newsom. But if the measure passes and the Democrats win back the House by two or three seats, then it will be clear to the Democrats that the victory is Newsom's alone. That doesn't guarantee the presidential nomination, but it is surely a hell of a talking point. On the other hand, if the Democrats flip 41 seats, like in 2018, Newsom's role in that will be pretty minor. Not that Democrats will hate him for it, but it will be clear his effort wasn't needed. It is rare that a politician has the chance to do one thing that could affect the country and his own career all at once if it works—or make him a laughingstock if it fails. We'll soon see which it is.
If redistricting catches on, Texas and California might not be the only players. Other red states that might get into the act are Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and Utah. Other blue states that might try are Illinois, Maryland, New York and Wisconsin. The requirement for doing this is that one party controls the trifecta and there are some House seats in competitive districts that the other party has. In the case of Wisconsin, the governor might try to get the courts to rule that the current districts are an illegal gerrymander.
If half a dozen states do this, it will anger the voters beyond belief. They will be just furious. That could be the moment that voters demand a constitutional amendment to do something about this. A small step would be requiring an independent commission in every state, but how do you guarantee that the commission will be neutral? A much bigger step would be for all House members to run at large in their state with proportional representation. For example, Washington has 10 House seats, so each party would file an ordered list of 10 candidates. If the Democratic slate got 60% of the vote, the top six Democrats on the list would be elected, along with the top four Republicans on their list. Having people vote for slates of candidates is as American as... the electoral college. This would eliminate districts altogether. It would require candidates to appeal statewide, making them less extreme. It would also give the parties more power since the state parties would draw up the candidate list. This would eliminate rogue candidates. Many countries have systems that are variations on this scheme.
Also noteworthy is that the organization that worked the hardest for having independent commissions draw the maps, Common Cause, is now reconsidering its position. There is a battle going on within the organization about what to do when one party is pushing gerrymandering to the hilt and the other is offering good government. Is that fair? The term "unilateral disarmament" is being bandied about as never before. (V)