Dem
47
GOP
53
Texas isn't the only red state where things are interesting these days. The Indiana legislature is back in special session; the purpose, of course, is to ram through the new House district map that Donald Trump wants. The map already passed the state House, which is not at all surprising, since representatives (whether state or federal) tend to be more MAGA than senators (whether state or federal). We don't know what the dynamic is in Nebraska, however, since their legislature only has one chamber.
Yesterday, the new Indiana map overcame another hurdle, as it was approved by the relevant state Senate committee, so that it can be brought to the floor for a vote. At first glance, this would appear to be a win for Trump. First, because the state Senate initially said it would not meet to consider the maps at all. Second, because the process is now one step closer to the finish line.
Not so fast, though. If you check your Magic 8 Ball, it will tell you "Ask again later." The vote in committee was 6-3, with state Sen. Greg Walker (R) crossing the aisle to vote with the two Democrats on the committee. State Sen. Michael Bohacek (R) is not on the committee, but has also committed to voting no, with his explanation that he (as the father of a child with Down syndrome) is offended by Trump's use of "retarded" as a slur.
That is only two GOP "nay" votes, and the Republican majority in the Indiana state Senate is 39-10, so Walker and Bohacek are not going to change the outcome, at least not by themselves. However, three of the six Republicans who voted yes yesterday took great pains to make clear to reporters that their primary motivation was to make sure the legislation gets a full vetting on the floor of the Indiana Senate, and that they might well change their votes for the final round of voting.
This... caution, for lack of a better term, suggests one of two possibilities to us. The first is that these members are trying to buy some time, before they actually have to make a decision that will be binding. The second is that they are trying to give Trump's position SOME support, before changing course, so they can hedge their bets as best as the circumstances allow.
We do not presume to know which of these it is, but either way, they clearly aren't slam dunks to vote for Trump's position. Meanwhile, we will point out a couple of other things. First is that the more defectors there are, the easier it is for Republican state senators to defy Trump, since many targets are harder to hit than one or two targets. The second is that the threats to spend $100 million to punish defiant state senators, which we wrote about yesterday, may sound good right now. But in practice, that means throwing away nine figures on a chamber that is already ruby red, during an election cycle where every dollar is going to be much more urgently needed in dozens of other places. So, the threats coming right now from Turning Point USA, the Club for Growth, etc., may just be hot air.
In short: Stay tuned. We'll probably know how the story ends in the next 24-48 hours. (Z)