Dem
47
GOP
53
Earlier this week, we made clear that we simply did not understand the theory behind Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-NY) run for the governorship of New York. MAGA and the Empire State don't mix in general, and there's every indication that 2026, in particular, is going to be a tough year for Republicans. The fact that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) is of middling popularity, at best, is not enough to make up for that.
Later in the week, the New Yorkers that Siena College polled made clear that they don't understand the theory of her gubernatorial run, either. According to Siena, Stefanik trailed Hochul by 19 points, 49% to 30%. You cannot explain that away as a mathematical fluke or a wonky sample size, and Stefanik can hardly say "Well, once voters get to know me, my numbers will improve." They already know her; she's the best-known Republican officeholder in the whole state.
Not only do such ghastly numbers represent the writing on the wall for the candidate, they also represent the writing on the wall for potential campaign staffers and, importantly, for donors. You can't run a campaign in New York State without boatloads of money, and nobody is going to donate to you if they think they're throwing their cash into the fireplace. And so, Stefanik got on Twitter yesterday and announced that she's not only dropping her gubernatorial bid, she's also going to retire from Congress at the end of this term. Her official reason is that she wants to spend more time with her family.
Stefanik did not say what the next chapter will be for her. The gubernatorial bid was a long shot, particularly since she would first have to win a tough primary. Clearly, she was ready to leave the House, where upward movement was not in the cards anytime soon, and clearly she was ready for the likelihood that she'd be out of elected office by January of 2027. Donald Trump did try to appoint her to an executive post before (U.N. Ambassador), and he might do it again, especially since, as of January 2027, that would not deprive the House Republican Conference of a vote. Actually, Trump has two potential appointees waiting in the bullpen, in Stefanik and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), who will be a free agent in just a few weeks. So, he could cashier a couple of Cabinet secretaries, and replace them with the kind of sycophantic loyalists he loves so dearly.
It's even possible that someone in Trump's orbit approached Stefanik with a deal—drop out in exchange for a future appointment—so as to avoid the aforementioned tough primary. On the other hand, if a spot in the Trump administration is NOT forthcoming, then her next step could be almost anything. She could sign on at one of the right-wing "news" channels, or could join/replace Scott Jennings (who is supposedly pondering a run for governor of Kentucky) as the resident GOP heel at CNN. She could lobby, or could serve on corporate boards, or could teach at a right-wing university, or could try to connect with former senator Kyrsten Sinema and get in on all the grifts that the Arizonan has going these days.
If Trump does not somehow ride to the rescue of Stefanik's career, then she'll become the latest person to have sacrificed her career to MAGA. There is at least a little irony that, if Stefanik had remained a normie Republican, which is what she once was (and what she is, in her heart of hearts), she could have kept getting elected in her R+24 district, and then she probably would have been viable as a candidate for statewide office in New York. But once she crossed over to the dark side, well, there was just no way the voters there were going to make Darth Stefanik their leader. (Z)