Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday's item about the Colombia kerfuffle was the last one we wrote yesterday, at the end of a very long day. We failed to squeeze some important nuance in there (which readers took us to task for), and there's also some new information. So, we are going to revisit the story today.
Recall that Colombian president Gustavo Petro consistently took the position that he was willing to accept the 160 or so returnees in question, but that he wanted them to be treated humanely. There was no real reason to doubt this; Petro accepted returnees from the Biden administration, which treated people humanely, transporting them on standard aircraft. Trump's preference is for military planes, usually C-17s. This option is considerably more expensive for the federal government, but also is more unpleasant for the immigrant passengers, while also making for much more impressive photo-ops. So, it's well worth it to Trump (after all, it's not his money).
Once the White House and the Colombian government had resolved the impasse, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt issued a statement in which she decreed that Petro had agreed to "all of President Trump's terms." This is not exactly true. Petro actually got what he wanted, in terms of more humane treatment of returnees. He offered his own plane(s) to guarantee that for the current group of returnees, while the White House said that civilian planes would be used for the missions in the future, when practicable. It also remains the case that the administration has de facto been warned that there are limits to how much Colombia, Mexico and other nations will cooperate.
Another problem for Trump is that he either doesn't really understand, or just doesn't care about, how international diplomacy works. He may not be aware of it, but Colombia is the United States' closest ally in South America. The U.S. relies on that nation a great deal when it comes to resisting hostile authoritarian governments (e.g., Venezuela), and also in helping to clamp down on the international drug trade. The time may come that the White House will want help with these things, and the Petro administration may not be so amenable.
And it gets worse. The nations of Latin America have already taken notice of what Trump did to Colombia (even if it didn't last long), and also his talk about the Panama Canal, and they recognize that they better get to work on working together before it's too late. Tomorrow, in fact, they will meet for an emergency summit to discuss matters of mutual interest and concern. The possibility of some sort of ASEAN-style organization, meant to resist American encroachments, is a real possibility. And while Canada is rather less warm and less Latin than Mexico or Colombia, that nation might get involved, too.
If the nations of Latin America (with or without the 'Nades) start working together, they could blunt the worst impacts of Trumpy tariffs on their economies, while also sending some highly focused pain back in the United States' direction. Americans import over $1 trillion in goods each year from Latin America, and many nations' products are very specific, and very tough to replace. That includes berries from Peru, copper from Chile, textiles from Guatemala, medical equipment from the Dominican Republic and, of course, coffee and cut flowers from Colombia. In a pretty clear proof of concept, the trade war with Colombia lasted less than 12 hours, and yet Arabica prices shot up in response.
And finally, there is the threat looming in the background that we mentioned yesterday, namely China. If the U.S. is deemed an unreliable trade partner, some (or many) nations in Latin America may recalibrate and start doing business with Xi Jinping & Co. That's a big change to make, but if it IS made, then it's also a big change to reverse.
In short, Trump may be able to impose his will on the executive branch, and may be able to impose his will on Congress, but foreign nations, even those with a fraction of the power of the United States, are much tougher. Diplomacy is pretty much always very difficult, as Joe Biden, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and about 40 of their predecessors could tell you. What makes Trump different, beyond his being a rather less capable diplomat than most other presidents, is that he insists on turning foreign affairs into reality TV. So, the ugly sausage-making (well, in Latin America, the ugly chorizo-making) is on full display. Every other president knew that it's way better to do that stuff on the down-low, and then ideally to bring the American public into the loop only after the chorizo has been put in casings, barbecued, sauced, and served up on some soft Marraqueta rolls, or maybe some nice arepas. Trump wants to loop people in before the pork has even hit the grinder. (Z)