Jul.09

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Democratic Candidate of the Week, #33: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)

This series got moved to the back burner for a few weeks, but it's time to get going again. Here are the potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates we've already written up:

40. Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ)
41. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
42. Al Franken
43. Jon Tester
44. Jon Stewart
45. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)
46. Mitch Landrieu

And now, striding up to the batter's box, it's the third "Jon" of the series, namely Jon Ossoff:

• Full Name: Thomas Jonathan Ossoff
  
  
• Age on January 20, 2029: 41 (though he will turn 42 less than 3 weeks later)
  
  
• Background: It would be hard to find a biography that trumpets "future politician" more loudly than Ossoff's does. His parents were not officeholders, but they were both deeply involved in community organization and activism, with his mother, Heather Fenton, founding NewPower PAC, which works to elect women to local offices in Georgia.
  
  For his education, Ossoff attended the private academy The Paideia School from grades K-12, and then enrolled at Georgetown, taking a degree from that school's Walsh School of Foreign Service, and enrolling in classes taught by former secretary of state Madeleine Albright and former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, among others. He also found time to be a member of the a capella group The Georgetown Chimes, and so performed at the National Security Council's holiday party several times. During a summer break, Ossoff interned with Rep. John Lewis (D-GA); thereafter, backed by Lewis' recommendation, he worked on the staff of Rep. Hank Johnson (D-GA) for 6 years, focusing on foreign affairs and defense policy.
  
  In 2012, Ossoff decamped from Washington for London, enrolling at the London School of Economics, where he earned an M.Sc. in international political economy. He remained in the British capital for most of the 8 years after graduation, co-founding and managing a production company called Insight: The World Investigates, which produces documentaries about corruption in foreign countries. The films produced under his leadership included, as their subjects, judicial corruption in Ghana, human trafficking in South America, and the enslavement of women and girls by ISIS.
  
  
• Political Experience: At the ripe old age of 29, Ossoff filed to run in the special election to represent GA-06, a seat left vacant by the appointment of Tom Price to run the Department of Health and Human Services. Inasmuch as Price won the seat by 23 points in 2016, it was not supposed to be a competitive race. However, Ossoff ran a strong campaign, and brought in bushels of money from Trump-skeptical voters across the country, while facing off against a weak opponent in former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel. So, while Handel did win, it was by only 3 points.
  
  The House race did much to create name recognition for Ossoff, and to convince Democratic operatives and donors that he was capable of big things. In 2020, when he jumped into the Democratic primary for the seat that Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) was trying to defend, Ossoff managed to scare off most of the serious contenders. He crushed the other six Democrats on the ballot, to win the right to advance to the general. Thereafter, he kept the general election close enough that Perdue, though he won a plurality on Election Day, barely missed out on a majority (Perdue got 49.73% of the vote).
  
  By the terms of Georgia law, the contest famously advanced to a runoff, one in which Ossoff was aided substantially by a sour-grapes-driven Donald Trump, who blamed his presidential loss on Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R-GA), and urged the MAGA base not to support the Georgia Republican Party. Trump's temper tantrum was just enough to allow Ossoff to prevail in the runoff, 50.61% to 49.39%.
  
  
• Signature Issue(s): If he runs for president, his signature issue is likely to be healthcare. That is the main thing he ran on in 2020, and he is married to a physician, Alisha Kramer, who would be a very useful surrogate on this issue, especially on women's healthcare issues, since she is an OB/GYN. Further, by 2028, there is every chance that the BBB Medicaid cuts will be coming home to roost, presenting an obvious line of attack for the Party's nominee.
  
  
• What Would His Pitch Be?: "It's time for generational change in the Democratic Party, and who better to lead it than the first millennial elected to the Senate?"
  
  
• Instructive Quote: "I'll tell you where I stand on the issues, and then I'll let the pundits decide how to label me."
  
  
• Completely Trivial Fact: Ossoff is Georgia's senior senator, by virtue of the fact that he and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) were elected on the same day, and none of the other tiebreakers (e.g., length of service in the House) applied, leaving the final tiebreaker, which is last name, in alphabetical order. This made Ossoff the youngest senior senator since 30-year-old Robert M. La Follette in 1925 (who got his "senior senator" status under the same circumstances).
  
  
• Recent News: For multiple years, Ossoff tried to walk a centrist line, but he's concluded that Trump and Trumpism are unpopular with the voters he's after, so he's been sharply critical of the administration's policies, particularly the BBB. He is also vociferous in accusing Trump of unlawful conduct, and is one of the loudest voices in the Senate calling for House Democrats to impeach Trump, should they get the opportunity in 2027.
  
  
• Strengths for the Democratic Primaries: (1) He's young, at a time when many Democratic voters are telling the old coots to get lost; (2) He's from a Southern state, which makes Democrats drool; (3) He's a very, very good fundraiser.
  
  
• Weaknesses for the Democratic Primaries: (1) The Middle East—Ossoff is Jewish, but is critical of Israel, which is likely to alienate some of his potential voters; (2) He's young, and he looks even younger than he is, so some voters might not feel he has the gravitas to be president; (3) While he has the potential to be an excellent public speaker, he's not there yet, and needs to get more emotion into his delivery.
  
  
• Polls: Nobody's polling him as a presidential candidate yet, but he does fairly well in terms of his approval ratings as a Senator; he's 12 points above water, on average (48% to 36%).
  
  
• How Does the Readership Feel?: We asked readers for their thoughts on Ossoff running for president; here are some of those responses:
  
  
  • S.P. in Harrisburg, PA: Jon Ossoff could bring advantages to Democrats, including being young, attractive and energetic. This could counterbalance someone like J.D. Vance if Vance was the Republican nominee. Southern Democrats have an appeal, since if they come from a swing state, they might have an edge over a solid-blue-state Democrat. That said, Ossoff seems to not have a huge national prominence, and much of his potential for presidential aspirations probably hinges on his reelection in 2026. Otherwise, think Beto O'Rourke.
    
    
  • E.S. In Providence, RI: While I knew of Ossoff from following the press coverage of his initial Senate campaign, I didn't know much about his policy positions. A look at his Wikipedia page and now I'm really impressed. What I like most about him is that he is a former investigative journalist. With the free press under attack, he would know how to call out the "Fake News" narrative. That his wife is an OB-GYN would be an incredible asset on the campaign trail with pro-choice Republican women. If he can raise his national profile in the next 18 months, he could be a formidable candidate.
    
    I like him already, and would support him if he runs.
    
    
  • L.R.H. in Oakland, CA: Jon Ossoff's first steps toward the presidency are getting re-elected, then developing a higher national profile. What, exactly, is he known for? What has he done, besides being a Jewish guy elected to the Senate by Georgians?
    
    Speaking of Jewish guys who are potential Democratic presidential candidates, they are Jon Ossoff, J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and Josh Stein. I assume that if any Jewish women emerge as candidates, they will be named JoAnn, Joyce, or Julie.
    
    
  • G.K. in Blue Island, IL: My knee-jerk impulse is to support Ossoff running for president, mainly just to raise his profile within Georgia and ensure he continues to hold his U.S. Senate seat. He's articulate, likeable, and would probably do a good job connecting with disaffected voters even if his campaign eventually suffered the fate of a snowball in Hades.
    
    
  • M.J. in Birmingham, AL: I can't see Jon Ossoff even considering running in 2028 unless Georgia Democrats run the table in statewide elections in the midterms, and in truly spectacular fashion. However much he might want to become president, he strikes me as being grounded enough to accept that Democrats don't love him unconditionally—they love him because he flipped a Senate seat they could've hardly dreamed of flipping 6 years earlier and every day he holds onto it makes the day Georgia becomes a purple or even a blue state feel one day closer.
    
    In 2032 or 2036, a Presidential run might make sense for him, but I don't dare hope that Georgia is moving left enough, fast enough to get there before then.
    
    
  • H.G. in Ashburn, VA: Before Ossoff thinks about 2028, he needs to worry about 2026 first. Remember former Virginia Senator George Allen, who many considered the front runner for president in 2008, but who lost his 2006 reelection bid and was never heard from again.
    
    Assuming Ossoff wins in 2026, something that got a bit easier with Brian Kemp declining to run, Ossoff does present some good qualities for the presidential nomination; one is that he would have won two competitive elections defeating some high quality candidates, and another is that he is a young, charismatic leader who does have the ability to show fight in him. Plus, if he is the presidential candidate in 2028, he may have help in Georgia, with Raphael Warnock running for reelection. That could energize the Black vote in Georgia, which puts that state into play.
    
    Now the pitfalls. Ossoff is Jewish, so he may have to deal with some issues with the Gaza crisis which could harm him in places like Michigan where Democrats need to win. He did sign on to Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-VT) resolution to halt arms sales to Israel, so this could also hurt him in the Jewish community. He is progressive on all the hot topics and has voted 97% of the time with Joe Biden—will that still play well in 2028 or not? As his youthful look could be a plus, it could also hurt him if things are rough and the voters are looking for the adult and not a child to help the country. Plus, he will have to answer the question in 2026 about serving a full term, so we will see how that answer plays. Yes, others have dealt with that, but this is a competitive state and 2026 will be close, so any little slip could cost him his seat in 2026 which would end his 2028 hopes.
  
  
• The Bottom Line: If Ossoff were to run, it would likely be to set the stage for a future presidential run, the way another senator elected in his early thirties, a fellow named Biden, did in 1988. Note that Georgia does have a resign-to-run law, but it only applies to the people who hold statewide office, so he could take his shot in 2028 without having to quit the Senate (assuming he wins reelection in 2026).
  
  All of this said, if a senator from Georgia is the Democratic nominee in 2028, we would bet on that person being Raphael Warnock.

Next week, it's #32, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA). If readers have comments about Kaine running for president in 2028, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com.