Dem
47
GOP
53
On Monday, we had an item with a Gallup poll putting Donald Trump's approval at 37%. Now a new Economist/YouGov poll has his approval at 40% and a Reuters/Ipsos poll also has him at 40%. That's three in one week with him at 40% or lower. Here is a list of polls since mid-July compiled by The New York Times. His approval clearly goes up and down and, of course, the pollsters' methodology varies. Nevertheless, this appears to be a new steady low.
| Pollster | Dates | Sponsor | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
| YouGov | July 25-28 | Economist | 40% | 55% | -15% |
| Ipsos | July 25-27 | Reuters | 40% | 56% | -16% |
| Morning Consult | July 25-27 | 47% | 50% | -3% | |
| RMG Research | July 16-24 | Napolitan News Service | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | July 21-24 | America's Majority Project | 47% | 54% | -7% |
| Quantus Insights | July 21-23 | 47% | 50% | -3% | |
| Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) | July 22-23 | 50% | 48% | 2% | |
| The Bullfinch Group | July 18-22 | 41% | 55% | -14% | |
| Emerson College | July 21-22 | Nexstar | 46% | 47% | -1% |
| J.L. Partners | July 21-22 | DailyMail.com | 45% | 46% | -1% |
| Gallup | July 7-21 | 37% | 58% | -21% | |
| Navigator Research | July 16-21 | 42% | 54% | -12% | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | July 18-21 | Fox Shaw | 46% | 54% | -8% |
| YouGov | July 18-21 | Economist | 41% | 55% | -14% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (R) | July 16-20 | Wall Street Journal | 46% | 52% | -6% |
If we go back to the start of Trump v2.0, the trend is unmistakable: down. At the start of this term, Trump was at 52% approval, 43% disapproval, for a net of +9. Now the running average puts him at 44% approval, 53% disapproval, for a net of -9. That is an 18-point drop so far. That cannot be explained by peculiarities in any pollster's methodology. The big driver here is that independents are souring on Trump. He is now -33 with them.
Most presidents lose approval as soon as they take office, but Trump's drop and standing is exceptional. Trump is now -9. In contrast, at this point, Joe Biden was +10, Barack Obama was +18, and George W. Bush was +24.
The crosstabs are interesting, as Trump is losing net support from groups that were previously firmly in his column. In the YouGov poll, Trump is -7 with men, -2 with white people, -8 with seniors, -16 with people earning <$50K and -15 with people earning $50K to $100K. He is also underwater on the issues like immigration (-16), the economy (-11), trade (-14), education (-15), abortion (-19), climate change (-20), and inflation (-25). At least his approval is better than that of Congress (-34). (V)