Dem
47
GOP
53
James Carville is way past his best-by date, but on a couple of points, his take is still valid. In particular: "It's the economy, stupid." In an ABC News WaPo/Ipsos poll, in addition to the usual approval/disapproval questions, Ipsos asked if the economy has gotten better during Trump's reign, whether prices are going down, and how likely there will be a recession and whose fault it will be. Here are the results:
These numbers are stunning. People think the economy is worse since Trump took over, prices are going up, and Trump's policies are likely to cause a recession. The Q1 GDP results are in and the economy shrank slightly. If it shrinks again in Q2, all the headlines will be about the recession and by July, it will be difficult for Trump to blame it on Biden, given that 72% of Americans are already expecting a recession and are pre-blaming it on Trump.
There is another economic issue that no one is asking about yet, but will soon be asking about: shortages. Due to the tariffs, some products made only in China are simply not coming into the country anymore, which will mean shortages or empty shelves. No doubt some high-profile products will suddenly be unavailable. When that happens, it won't take a star reporter to go around asking people "How do you feel about [X] not being available now?" and writing a story about it. Stories about lower GDP tend to go in one eye and out the other, but the unavailability of well-known products, say Barbie dolls, will get a lot of attention, with plenty of interviews with parents saying their daughter wanted a special one for her birthday and there are none available anywhere. (V)