Trump Releases a Scorched-Earth Budget Plan

On Friday, Donald Trump released his wishes for next year's federal budget. It needs to be adopted before the start of the next fiscal year or the government will shut down on October 1. Of course, in practice, it is never adopted on time, and that leads to an endless series of continuing resolutions because Congress simply doesn't function anymore. It is not surprising that many people want a strongman to run the country since Congress is incapable of doing even its most basic job.

Trump's proposed budget asks Congress to slash non-defense spending by more than $163 billion. That is 23% and is enormous. No previous president has ever asked for anything of this magnitude. Here is a breakdown by department:

Here is a rough summary of where the cuts will hit the hardest (and where they won't):

• Agriculture: Many of the cuts here will hit rural areas—that is, Trump's base. These include rural development programs, housing loans in rural areas, forest management, and food programs for low-income seniors in rural areas. Food stamps and school lunches will also get hit. In addition, a program going back to the Eisenhower administration in which the government buys food and donates it as foreign aid (which keeps crop prices high for farmers by reducing the supply) is on the chopping block.
  
  
• Commerce: Programs that promote commerce in many ways, including trade, industrial standards, and scientific research, will be hit very hard. Everything the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration does related to climate change will be decimated, even weather forecasting. The Minority Business Development Agency, which helps minorities start and run small businesses, will lose $1 billion, even though Republicans have always said the way for minorities to get out of poverty is to let the private sector do the job. The only agency getting a boost within Commerce is the one that enforces trade law and regulates the export of sensitive goods. There is also some money to address America's supply-chain dependence on China.
  
  
• Defense: This Department gets a nice increase, bringing its budget to almost $1 trillion. However, programs involving scientific research and green energy are being cut. There are also some budget gimmicks being used, so it is hard to tell how much the increase really is.
  
  
• Education: Many programs will be hit hard here, including K-12 programs and college funding, especially for low-income Americans. The college work-study program, which allows poor students to work while in college to pay the costs, will be eliminated. The office of civil rights will lose a third of its budget. The only program getting an increase is one that helps charter schools. This is generally understood as laying some groundwork in the event that the Supreme Court approves religious charter schools, as it might well do in two cases it will hear later this year.
  
  
• Energy: The Inflation Reduction Act that Joe Biden signed had a huge amount of money for the transition to sustainable energy. That will be history. Programs to steer energy investments to low-income and minority communities are gone. Scientific research into new energy technologies is gone. The oil industry is getting a huge return on its investment in Trump's campaign.
  
  
• EPA: The EPA is losing over half its budget. Everything it does will be affected. Among top items are cleaning up toxic waste sites, scientific research on the environment, and a program that tracked down polluters and fined them.
  
  
• Health and Human Services: Interestingly enough, the Affordable Care Act is not being hit. However, NIH, the world's premier organization for doing research on diseases and looking for cures will have its budget cut by 40%. After all, conservatives almost never get sick and if they do, they can just pray for a cure, which generally arrives within 1-2 business days, depending on how busy God is that day. Wasteful programs getting axed include those involving chronic diseases like diabetes. One increase is for HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again program.
  
  
• Homeland Security: Big winner here. FEMA will be gutted and also TSA but there is $44 billion for mass deportations. Also a big increase for the U.S. Secret Service, whose job is to protect the president and other high officials.
  
  
• Housing and Urban Development: Huge cut for rental assistance. Also for programs that aim for economic development in poor areas. A program that helps people investigate housing discrimination is going by the wayside.
  
  
• Interior: Bad news for the National Parks, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and conservation programs.
  
  
• Justice: The FBI will be hit hard to undo the "weaponization" of the FBI against conservatives, even though it is now being run by a conservative. Republicans used to support the police. Another agency taking a big hit is the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. It enforces gun control laws. Big waste, apparently. Luckily, the U.S. does not have a problem with things like school shootings.
  
  
• Labor: The "Make America Skilled Again" president cuts programs that help youth and seniors gain employment. Bye bye, Job Corps. Trump claims it is harmful. It offers free vocational training to people 16-24 to train them for jobs that actually exist and where there is a need for workers. Surely they can find a tutorial on YouTube to learn plumbing or welding on their own.
  
  
• NASA: The NASA budget will be cut by a quarter. The Space Launch System Rocket is dead before it starts. So is the Orion capsule. But there is $1 billion more for Mars-focused efforts. Since Elon Musk is keen on going to Mars, maybe there will be some cushy grants available for SpaceX with an extra $1 billion.
  
  
• State Department: USAID falls under the State Department and it is being gutted. Foreign aid of all kinds will be hit hard because the administration claims it goes to "radical, leftist priorities," especially climate change, DEI, and LGBTQ+ activities. Another $3.2 billion for international disaster assistance is also gone. Funding for the U.N. and W.H.O. are going to be hit hard. A new program, America First Opportunities Fund, will get $2.9 billion. Former officials are calling it a "slush fund" that will allow the administration to spend money abroad in ways Congress doesn't know about and probably wouldn't approve. It could also be used to give foreign companies or governments money—provided they used the money to buy things from companies owned or run by Trump's cronies.
  
  
• Transportation: Small gain here. More money for air traffic control, as well as highway, port, and railroad safety. Trump would prefer not to have another disaster like the derailment in East Palestine, OH. One cut that will not survive first contact with Congress is the "Essential Air Service," which subsidizes air transportation to far-flung congressional districts. Western congresscritters whose districts are far from major airports love it.
  
  
• Treasury: Treasury was largely left alone except for a massive cut to the IRS, so it can't hunt down billionaire tax cheats who have very complicated schemes involving multiple shell companies in foreign jurisdictions that buy and sell assets (e.g., patents) resulting in lower taxes for themselves. It will be interesting to see how the true deficit hawks in Congress, like Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), view cutting the IRS budget, since these cuts will reduce revenue and make the deficit bigger.
  
  
• Veterans Affairs: A bit more money here, especially for veterans seeking medical care outside V.A. hospitals. Anything suggesting "privatization," whether it be in education, space exploration, or care for veterans, tends to get a green light.

Many of the cuts, if implemented, will hit lower-income Americans especially hard. No doubt this was an oversight. Sometimes these things just happen, you know. Specific cuts that will hurt poor people are $27 billion less for housing assistance (which will drive many people into homelessness), LIHEAP (which provides money for heating in winter and cooling in summer), Title I education assistance (which goes to poor schools), and more.

Will the budget sail through Congress unscathed? Don't count on it. Many members are already dissing it. A big problem will be Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who happens to be chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. She is very concerned. She has many objections, especially to things that will not be popular in her blue state during the 2026 elections.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is no longer the leader of the Senate Republican caucus, but he is the chairman of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense and a big hawk on Ukraine and no fan of Russia. He wants much more money for defense. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) is chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and is with McConnell 100%. He is not as subtle as McConnell and said he opposes the budget's "intent to shred to the bone our military capabilities and support to service members." Doesn't sound like a "Yes, let's pass the budget as is" vote to us.

What about over in the House? House Appropriations chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) said: "But with all due respect to anybody, I think the members have a better understanding of what can pass and what can't than the Executive Branch does." With the chairs of the Appropriations Committees in both chambers up in arms, we do not predict smooth sailing for this budget.

While the new proposal opens a new front in the budget wars, the 2025 budget fight is still ongoing. The SALTy Republicans from blue states have once again told Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) that unless the SALT cap is raised, they are "no" votes on the reconciliation bill. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) suggested raising it to $25,000, but some other blue-state Republicans said that is still too low. Johnson can't afford to lose more than three votes on the bill. The Freedom Caucus is a fervent opponent of raising the cap at all because it would increase the deficit, though recently they have talked big, and then folded faster than a Texas Hold 'em player with 7-2 offsuit when it came time to vote, so who knows. Anyhow, good luck, Mike. (V)

Americans Are Expecting a Recession and Are Already Blaming It on Trump

James Carville is way past his best-by date, but on a couple of points, his take is still valid. In particular: "It's the economy, stupid." In an ABC News WaPo/Ipsos poll, in addition to the usual approval/disapproval questions, Ipsos asked if the economy has gotten better during Trump's reign, whether prices are going down, and how likely there will be a recession and whose fault it will be. Here are the results:

These numbers are stunning. People think the economy is worse since Trump took over, prices are going up, and Trump's policies are likely to cause a recession. The Q1 GDP results are in and the economy shrank slightly. If it shrinks again in Q2, all the headlines will be about the recession and by July, it will be difficult for Trump to blame it on Biden, given that 72% of Americans are already expecting a recession and are pre-blaming it on Trump.

There is another economic issue that no one is asking about yet, but will soon be asking about: shortages. Due to the tariffs, some products made only in China are simply not coming into the country anymore, which will mean shortages or empty shelves. No doubt some high-profile products will suddenly be unavailable. When that happens, it won't take a star reporter to go around asking people "How do you feel about [X] not being available now?" and writing a story about it. Stories about lower GDP tend to go in one eye and out the other, but the unavailability of well-known products, say Barbie dolls, will get a lot of attention, with plenty of interviews with parents saying their daughter wanted a special one for her birthday and there are none available anywhere. (V)

Trump Sits for an Interview with Kristen Welker on "Meet the Press"

NBC's Kristen Welker got a choice interview with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago earlier this week. They covered a wide range of topics and aired yesterday. If you want to watch the whole thing (74 minutes), here it is:

The item that has gotten the most attention is the one in which Welker asked Trump if he would uphold the Constitution. He said: "I don't know." Perhaps he has forgotten that on Jan. 20, 2025, he took an oath in which he promised to do that very thing. Or maybe he was just kidding then. Another issue Welker was concerned about is how Trump's tariffs will affect small businesses. Trump said: "Many businesses are being helped" and there is no need for relief. Small businesses that sell items from China and have suddenly had their prices more than double might not agree.

For the most part, Trump blamed Joe Biden or said whatever problem Welker brought up was not a big deal. When she asked about his deporting people without the due process guaranteed by the Constitution, he pointed out that he had declared a state of emergency, somehow implying that an emergency overrides the Constitution.

On the economy, he said that the tariffs will reduce the trade deficit with China. His actual answer was telling: "We don't have to waste money on a trade deficit with China for things we don't need, for junk that we don't need." This reinforces our view that his vision of China was frozen around 1970, when China made cheap T-shirts and other junk. He is apparently unaware that Chinese manufacturing is now among the best in the world and many Chinese products are better than American products, and much cheaper. He is also apparently unaware that the supply chain for many advanced American products runs through China. Modern cars have 1,000-3,000 computer chips in them, most of them very simple and cheap—and most of them come from China because no American company can make them for a few cents each. When Welker pressed Trump about a recession, he brushed it off, saying that maybe kids would get three dolls for Christmas instead of 30, and the economy would soon be the best one ever.

In foreign affairs, he didn't rule out taking Greenland by force, but seemed to rule out conquering Canada by force. He did admit that he didn't end the war in Ukraine on Day 1, but said a deal might be fairly close. Related to that, when she asked him about holding a giant (and expensive) military parade on his birthday when his administration is trying to ferret out waste, he said it would be well worth the $45 million it would cost.

He also discussed the Big Beautiful Reconciliation Bill Congress is working on. He actually made news there, saying that if it cuts Medicaid, he would veto it. The Budget resolution that passed Congress calls for $880 billion in cuts to Medicaid, and some members of the House won't vote for the bill if the cuts are rescinded. It could get interesting. Maybe he will later say: "Well, what they cut out was waste, so it is fine."

Surprisingly, Trump said he would serve two terms and not run for a third term. He said his earlier remarks were intended to troll the fake news media. It certainly worked, with dozens, maybe hundreds, of stories about the Twenty-Second Amendment and various workarounds, like getting elected on a Vance/Trump ticket and having Vance resign as soon as he was inaugurated. Trump's company is selling "Trump 2028" hats, but that could just be to get the rubes his people to cough up $50.

One interesting aspect of the interview is that in part of it Trump and Welker were sitting on chairs facing each other, but for part of it they were standing, with Trump towering over the tiny 5'2" Welker, in an attempt to dominate her. (V)

Americans Do Not Like Trump's Campaign to Subdue Harvard

When Donald Trump threatened to take away Harvard's tax-exempt status, he probably thought he would get widespread support from his base, which hates elites, and it is tough to be more elite than Harvard. Turns out he guessed wrong. People understand that there are a lot of liberals wandering around Harvard Yard, but 48% of Americans support Harvard's rejecting Trump's demands while only 31% disapprove.

The poll also put the question in an abstract form. They asked people if they agreed with the statement: "No government—regardless of which party is in power—should dictate what private universities can teach, whom they can admit and hire, and which areas of study and inquiry they can pursue." Of the respondents, 49% agreed. They also asked if they agreed with the statement: "The gravy train of federal assistance to institutions like Harvard is coming to an end because taxpayer funds are a privilege, and Harvard fails to meet the basic conditions required to access that privilege." Only 35% agreed with this.

Many people are against "elites" in some abstract sense. Nevertheless, we would love to see a pollster ask "If you had brain cancer, would you prefer a surgeon who graduated from the elite Harvard Medical School or one who graduated from a less 'woke' college, like the Arkansas State University Medical School?" (V)

Letitia James Is Investigating Insider Trading by Trump's Associates

After "Liberation Day," when Donald Trump announced his brutal tariffs, the stock market crashed. Then a few days later, he mostly relented and the market soared. On April 14, we noted a few oddities associated with the markets, such as a massive volume of call options bought on April 9 with an expiration date of April 9. Buying such an option makes sense only if you have a strong feeling that the markets will surge before closing that day. To many Democrats, that smelled fishy.

One Democrat who didn't like the odor much is NY AG Letitia James. She has started an inquiry to see if anyone in Trump's inner circle might just have profited from inside knowledge that Trump was going to scrap many of the tariffs later that day. That would be insider trading and is a felony.

Since the New York Stock Exchange is located in her jurisdiction, she is Wall Street's top cop and has exercised her authority over it many times in the past. In particular, the New York State Martin Act, named after a guy named Martin, grants the NY AG expansive powers to police securities fraud occurring in New York State. When conducting an investigation, the AG does not have to show probable cause to issue subpoenas and doesn't have to disclose what he or she is up to before filing charges. One (controversial) provision in the Act is that the State does not have to prove the defendant had "intent" to defraud, just that the defendant did something that disadvantaged others. James is an experienced prosecutor and if there was insider trading, she can probably subpoena records that show very unusually timed purchases. And she is probably not dealing with Bernie Madoff-level crooks who know what they are doing and get away with it for years. It is more likely opportunists who got some inside information and acted on it immediately. In any event, she is on the case. (V)

Greene Sounds Off about Ukraine and Iran

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who fancies herself as "The Voice of the Base," took Donald Trump to task on Friday. This is actually fairly unusual, since she is generally with him most of the time. In particular, she doesn't like the minerals deal Trump is trying to pull off in Ukraine. Here are her exact words:

I represent the base and when I'm frustrated and upset over the direction of things, you better be clear, the base is not happy.

I campaigned for no more foreign wars.

And now we are supposedly on the verge of going to war with Iran.

I don't think we should be bombing foreign countries on behalf of other foreign countries especially when they have their own nuclear weapons and massive military strength.

And on top of that, now we are told that we have signed a deal for mineral rights in Ukraine, in order to pay us back for the hundreds of billions of dollars that we gave Ukraine and they used for money laundering, sold the weapons we gave them to our enemies, and their leader is a dictator who canceled elections, was involved of the first impeachment of Trump, and campaigned for Biden.

Didn't we learn our lesson when we went to war in Iraq and killed Saddam Hussein because of "weapons of mass destruction?" Did we ever find any? And did any of that oil over in the Middle East make us rich? The answer is no, we are $36 trillion in debt today.

So why on earth would we go over and occupy Ukraine and spend an untold amount of future American taxpayer dollars defending and mining their minerals as well as potentially putting American lives at risk and future war?

Why don't we just mine our own rare earth minerals that are tied up on federal lands that the government confiscated years ago?

I also campaigned on accountability for the communist and tyrannical acts made by the government during Covid. Yet the Covid vaccine still has FDA approval even though there are millions reported injuries and deaths, and this mRNA vaccine is known to have horrific side effects and DOES NOT STOP PEOPLE FROM CATCHING COVID. And to this day, it's still on the childhood vaccine schedule, why on earth is this happening? Hasn't big pharma made enough billions and billions and billions of dollars on this lie?

I also campaigned on accountability for all the law fair that was waged against the American people in the past four years. What about all the people that were locked up in jail and the abuse that they went through? And when are those vicious attorneys and judges ever going to be held accountable for the lives they ruined?

And I campaigned for an end to waste fraud and abuse of the American people's harder tax dollars. I believe the DOGE mission is one of the most important things happening today in our government, and yet where are the rescissions that we should be voting on in Congress?

And one of the biggest issues in the nation that I have fought for, and early on I was one of the only ones that took a loud screaming stand against, is the evil transgender assault against our children. Most normal people in this country can't even comprehend how it's allowed to happen to kids who by law can't even get a tattoo, drive, or vote. And how did so many of our teachers turn into the predators themselves that groom children with gender lies? This should be an all out effort by Republicans to end this insanity.

And look at the extreme nature of our rogue judicial system that is so defiant that there are judges that defy our nation's laws and block the deportation of literal enemies of the United States of America. Where is the outrage and moral courage to dispose of this treason? Sadly not in Congress.

And what about election integrity? This should be the most important issue that the Republicans aggressively fight to protect because without secure elections protected from illegals voting and protections from stealing our votes, the American people have lost their power.

When you are losing MTG, you are losing the base.

And Trump isn't on the ballot in the future, so do the math on that.

It's quite an earful (eyeful?). It starts out with her opposition to foreign wars. She is from Georgia and obviously has a strong preference for domestic wars. It is probably true that many Trump voters oppose certain kinds of wars but so much of what she said is either nonsense or generic boilerplate.

But there is a kernel of truth in her objection to Trump obtaining mineral rights in Ukraine because then Trump will have skin in the game and might want to defend Ukraine or at least help it in order to protect his interest in the mineral rights. However, her idea that the taxpayer will pay to mine the minerals is crazy. U.S. companies will bid for the rights, pay for all the mining, and pay royalties for the minerals extracted. If the U.S. has a real stake in Ukraine, it is more likely than not that Vladimir Putin will realize that messing with Trump's investment is not a good idea.

As to mining our own rare earth elements, she obviously has no knowledge of how that works, but the mining process pollutes the environment badly and the states that have deposits of them understand this.

Most of the rest of the post has nothing to do with anything in particular. Maybe it is too subtle, but we miss the connection between mining terbium in Ukraine and transgender children in America.

What really caught our eye is the unmitigated arrogance of the next-to-last sentence: "When you are losing MTG, you are losing the base." It has echoes of the remark Lyndon Johnson is supposed to have said about TV newsman Walter Cronkite: "If I've lost Cronkite, I've lost Middle America," except that was said in sadness, not in arrogance. Apparently, Marge thinks she's the Queen of England, and should be referring to herself in the third person. We look forward to the tweet when she advises that "We are not amused."

All that said, it is possible that a substantial fraction of Trump's base really does not want the minerals in Ukraine, even for free, and no matter how useful they are for American industry. They want to build a wall, not just on the Mexican border, but around the entire country and just withdraw from the world. (V)

Mark Warner Is Predicting a Brutal Confirmation Hearing for Mike Waltz

After former NSA Mike Waltz invited a journalist to be on an insecure communication channel where he discussed confidential imminent war plans—twice—the backlash was so great that Donald Trump had to do something. But he hates to admit he was wrong, so rather than firing Waltz altogether, he tried to move him to a different, but similar, position: ambassador to the United Nations. It is not exactly even clear if that is a demotion. It is more like a lateral transfer.

In any event, nominees for U.N. ambassador have to be confirmed by the Senate. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) said the confirmation hearing will be brutal. Warner and others are sure to ask something like: "You have already violated the DoD security protocols multiple times and put our servicemembers' lives at risk. Why should we believe you won't continue putting national security at risk?"

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) agreed with Warner. She said: "It will be a brutal hearing. He is not qualified for the job just by nature of the fact he participated in the Signal chain. In fact, I believe everybody on that Signal chain needs to be fired, because not a single one of them spoke up and said 'Hey, this is inappropriate and we need to be in a secure channel.'" She said that no matter what he says at the hearing, she is a "no" vote because he is incapable of handling classified information. (V)

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