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Auditions for AG Are in Full Swing
After Pam Bondi was fired as AG, Todd Blanche was named her acting replacement. He would like the top job, as you may have heard, which means he needs to demonstrate to Donald Trump that he (Blanche) can out-sycophant even Bondi. That is no small task, but Blanche took a big step in that direction yesterday, announcing that he has secured a second indictment of former FBI Director James Comey, and that there is now a warrant out for Comey's arrest.
The first Comey indictment—which went nowhere, of course—was predicated on the claim that he gave false testimony to Congress about the Trump-Russia investigation. This indictment, by contrast, is based on... a social media post. Readers will probably recall that, last year, Comey posted this to his Instagram feed:
It was accompanied by the note "Cool shell formation on my beach walk." At the time, Donald Trump, MAGA and Fox pitched a hissy fit, and asserted that Comey was threatening the president's life. Comey deleted the post, replaced it with a garden-variety apology, and that was that. Well, at least until he was indicted yesterday for: (1) making a threat against the president, and (2) communicating that threat across state lines.
It is really something that the grand jury in eastern Carolina (where the picture was taken) actually signed off on this indictment. Blanche, along with the flunky who actually signed the indictment, Asst. U.S. Attorney Matthew R. Petracca, must know their case is full of gaping holes. A rundown of some of the biggies:
- What Does 8-6-4-7 Mean?: "86," of course, is understood to mean "get rid of." And
"47" is understood to mean "Donald Trump" (i.e., the 47th president). However, even if we grant that is Comey's
meaning, assassination is not the only way to get rid of a president. He can be removed via the Twenty-Fifth Amendment.
He can be impeached and convicted. He can be voted out of office. And these more benign meanings are more consistent
with the implied meaning of "86" as opposed to "kill." If someone specifically wanted to use numbers to call for Trump's
assassination, the correct numbers to use would be 1-8-7-4-7. In California, 187 is the penal code for murder. And
thanks to West Coast/Gangsta rap, it entered the lexicon as a synonym for "murder."
And note that while Comey did say, after the firestorm of controversy, that the message was "political," he does not appear to have confirmed that his intended meaning was the obvious one. Presumably it was, but "presumably it was" does not get it done in a court of law. You have to have proof beyond a reasonable doubt. Comey could say he intended to draw attention to, say, the housing for military veterans located at 8647 B Burwell St. SW in Washington, DC. Or he could ascribe many dozens of other meanings to "8647." - A Threat?: Part of the standard in a case like this, president or no, is that a
reasonable person would have to interpret the message/action as a threat. Given the many possible meanings of
the image, this is a high bar to overcome in this case.
- Imminent?: Another part of the standard in a case like this, president or no, is that the
threat has to be imminent. The law draws a distinction between, say, "Someone should shoot Donald Trump" (legal,
protected by the First Amendment) and "Someone should shoot Donald Trump tomorrow, while he's speaking to steel workers"
(illegal). The former is understood to be likely hyperbole, the latter to be a specific and credible threat of
violence.
- Not My Photo: Comey did not arrange the seashells, he merely took a picture of them. That adds another layer to the equation. Imagine someone walking around in front of the White House with a big sign that says, "Someone please shoot Donald Trump right now!" That's likely an illegal threat. Now, imagine taking a picture of that person and posting it to social media. The photographer is just documenting things, like a historian or journalist would, not necessarily embracing any particular point of view.
Again, we assume Blanche knows all of this. That said, he went to Brooklyn Law School, whose most famous alumnus is... Vinny Gambini. So, maybe not. Certainly Comey, who is also a lawyer (University of Chicago), knows these things.
This will presumably be laughed out of court, just like the last United States v. Comey case was. And we would guess Blanche doesn't really care. By that time, he'll either have been promoted to AG or he'll have been passed over. This is clearly a short-term play, one made with the full knowledge that: (1) rival wannabe-AG Jeannine Pirro just surrendered on Jerome Powell, and (2) there is some time pressure on Trump to get a nominee to the Senate ASAP, before summer breaks/campaign season/the possible loss of GOP control of the upper chamber can come home to roost. At the moment, Blanche is being coy about whether or not he's willing to make arrangements to allow Comey to surrender voluntarily. Clearly, the wannabe AG desperately wants a perp walk, for maximum drama. He knows full well that a picture of that sight would make its way to Trump's First-Amendment-hating social media site at light speed.
Blanche is playing with some fire here. Before the first indictment was dismissed, Comey had filed a motion for vindictive and selective prosecution and it sure looked like the judge was going to rule his way. But then a different judge ruled that Lindsey Halligan was unlawfully appointed so that motion was moot. Now Comey has even more grounds for that motion and if he prevails, the government may have to pay Comey's attorneys' fees and sanctions could be imposed on Blanche. It's not a good look for someone who presumably wants a job once Trump is out of office.
Further, bringing frivolous prosecutions is a violation of legal ethics, and can lead to disbarment. And unlike Bondi, who is licensed in the maybe-friendly-to-her-politics Florida, Blanche is admitted to the bar in New York State. So, not so friendly an audience. He's also been waging war against the ABA in other ways, which is certainly not going to help him if he ever ends up at a disciplinary hearing. We guess it's another case of someone willing to sacrifice themselves on the altar of Trump, thinking (almost always naively) that it will be different this time, and Trump would never cast them aside when he no longer has any use for them.
And as long as we are talking auditions, what exactly do you think is going on with FCC Chair Brendan Carr? As we noted yesterday, Jimmy Kimmel made a joke last week that gave the Trump family the sads. The Trumps soiled themselves over this, and fired back on social media. Carr knows his cue when he hears it, and so yesterday announced that the eight Disney-owned broadcast TV stations (the ABC outlets in Chicago, Fresno, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham and San Francisco) would be required to submit their license renewal paperwork early, so that the FCC has time for an extra thorough review of their applications.
Obviously, Carr is trying to create some leverage here, so he can then try to compel Disney/ABC to do his bidding. As with the Comey prosecution, we don't see how this can plausibly conclude in a way that will please Trump. Disney does not have any pending mergers right now, and surely all the big media providers have learned the lesson of The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Comey, Letitia James, Harvard University, Iran, etc., namely that the only correct option is to stand up to Trump, et al. If you fold, then the administration just comes back for more. If you stand up for yourself, the administration folds (or loses in court). Disney should have no trouble tying this up in court for a very long time, and then winning should it actually get before a judge and/or jury. The law is very clear that content that makes the president feel cranky is covered by the First Amendment, and does not rise to the level of obscenity or any other form of legally censorable speech.
It could be that Carr is just a True Believer, and is pulling all these stunts because it gives him a MAGA high. But he sure looks like another one of these folks who is auditioning for a promotion. It's just that, in contrast to Blanche, we can't figure out what that promotion might be. Does he want to move over to the Cabinet? If so, well, he does have a law degree (Catholic University of America), so maybe he is thinking AG, too. Or maybe an ambassadorship, like to the Vatican. Or perhaps he wants to run for Congress, and would sure love Trump's backing. Or... something else?
It would be really nice if the high-ranking members of the executive branch were guided, first and foremost, by the question of: "Is this what is best for the country?" Another good choice would be: Obey the Constitution and the law. But that is not the world we live in, unfortunately. (Z & L)
So, Trump Is Writing His Own Legal Filings Now?
This isn't the second-most-important story of the day. However, it does connect to the previous story, and it suggests, at least a little bit, that the next AG might have to let the President help write some legal filings. This would be an egregious breach of the wall that is supposed to exist between the DoJ and the Oval Office, but there is nobody in either of those places right now who gives a damn about that wall. Trump is interested in walls, just not that one. It would also be ridiculous since Trump IS NOT a lawyer, and he IS a nitwit who writes at a second-grade level. But if you have your eye on that sweet, sweet 9 months you get as AG before you get thrown under the bus, we guess you do what you gotta do.
The reason that we, and everyone else, think that this is what is going on is a motion filed late Monday with the U.S. District Court for Washington, DC. It is an attempt to convince the Court to dismiss the lawsuit filed by the National Trust for Historic Preservation, on the basis that the new ballroom has become essential to national security after the so-called assassination attempt at the White House Press Correspondents' dinner. Here is the first chunk of the filing:
"The National Trust for Historic Preservation" is a beautiful name, but even their name is FAKE because when they add the words "in the United States" to the National Trust for Historic Preservation, it makes it sound like a Governmental Agency, which it is not. In fact, the United States refused to continue funding it in 2005 because they strongly disagreed with their mission and objectives. They are very bad for our Country. They stop many projects that are worthy, and hurt many others. In this case, they are trying to stop one that is vital to our National Security, and the Safety of all Presidents of the United States, both current and future, their families, staff, and Cabinet members. They were asked by the United States Military not to bring this suit because of the Top Secret nature of the important facility being built. They were shown detailed plans and specifications of this knitted, unified, and cohesive structure by Top Officers and Leaders in both the Military and Secret Service. But this did not deter them because they suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome, commonly referred to as TDS, as noted by Democrat Senator John Fetterman, of Pennsylvania, and are represented by the lawyer for Barack Hussein Obama, Gregory Craig. The lower section of the building does not work without the upper section and, likewise, the upper section of the building does not work without the lower. It is all one highly integrated unit! As an example, one venting system, one electrical system, one plumbing system, one security system, one air conditioning and heating system, one elevator connector and, very importantly, one structural steel and enforced concrete system—and more. Even the bullet proof windows and glass, and the heavy steel, drone proof roof, protect what is below. With such a facility, it would have been impossible for an attack like that which took place last Saturday evening in D.C. when an attempted assassin, armed with a shotgun, pistol, and knives, charged through a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton in an attempt to assassinate President Donald J. Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, and members of the President's Cabinet and senior staff, during the White House Correspondents' Dinner. The Secret Service fortunately neutralized the assassin before he could reach the ballroom. However, Saturday's narrow miss—which marks the third assassination attempt on President Trump since 2024—confirms what should have already been obvious: Presidents need a secure space for large events, that currently does not exist in Washington, D.C., and this Court's injunction stalling this Project cannot defensibly continue, for the sake of the safety of President Trump, future Presidents, and their families, Cabinets, and staff. Defendants thus request that this Court issue an indicative ruling under Rule 62.1 that it will dissolve its injunction.
Note that we did not forget to add the paragraph breaks here; there weren't any.
This obviously has Trump's fingerprints all over it, from the stream-of-consciousness narrative, to the use of MAGA buzzwords like "TDS," "FAKE" and "Democrat" (instead of "Democratic"), to the pi**-poor grammar and arbitrary capitalizations, to the elementary-school-level conception of what does and does not constitute evidence. Either Trump wrote it himself, or someone mimicked his style at his command.
The Trump administration already has a pretty low batting average in lawsuits these days. Submitting political screeds masquerading as legal briefings is not going to help on that front, that is for certain. Whether Trump wrote it himself, or Blanche (or someone else) wrote it for him, there aren't many federal judges who will tolerate such an insulting waste of their time. Either Trump doesn't know that (and his people won't tell him), or it's more important to the President to vent than it is to actually have a chance at winning. (Z)
Wars Have Consequences
It turns out, when you go to war, that has an impact on many things, usually in a bad way. Who knew? Well, besides everyone who is not Donald Trump or Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, that is.
The Iran War could end tomorrow, or could still be going when Trump leaves office. And whatever the case may be, its impacts will be many and varied, and will not fully reveal themselves for years, or maybe decades. That said, we thought we'd run down a few of the things that are already becoming apparent:
- Gas Prices: We've beaten this drum many times already, and we will surely beat it many times more.
There have been a couple of pretty big developments on this front, though, so it's worth mentioning now. First, gas prices hit
a 4-year high
yesterday. On the day the Iran War began, the U.S. average was $2.98/gal. Yesterday, it was up 40%, to $4.18/gal. It was $4.23/gal. this morning. Second, things are
likely to get worse.
Between the Iran War and the greater demand that comes during the summer months,
gasoline futures
also reached a 4-year high yesterday. It takes a few weeks or a month for that to percolate down the line, so $5/gal. by June
1 is a real possibility.
- The Military: When people sign up to be soldiers these days, they may not expect to get shot at.
And they particularly don't want to get shot at in a war that does not seem to serve any purpose. So, despite the administration's
claims to the contrary, the military establishment is in the process of
taking a big hit right now.
The number of careerists filing for retirement has doubled compared to this time last year, and the number of soldiers
deciding not to re-enlist is way up. Also way up is the number of soldiers looking for an early discharge for medical or
other reasons. And the departures
skew towards
soldiers in highly skilled specialities, like cyber, AI, and logistics. It turns out that in the private sector, they
can avoid being shot at in an aimless war, not have to work for the crazy person who runs the Pentagon, and earn a
salary that is, on average, 50% higher than their military pay. Not a hard call, we would say.
- Electronics: Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) produces 70% of the world's purity
polyphenylene ether (PPE). PPE is a key component in circuit boards. Iran bombed SABIC in response to being attacked by
the United States. SABIC is not back online yet, which means that electronics manufacturers
are now facing
PPE shortages. Prices are up 40% already, and that will eventually travel down the line and make electronic goods more
expensive.
- Solar: If there's any development that captures the Iran War in a nutshell, it's this one.
The instability in the petroleum markets has sparked renewed interest in solar energy. The world's leading producer of
solar panels is China. And in March, China
had the biggest month
it's ever had in terms of solar panel sales, to 68 GW of capacity shipped abroad. To put that in context, that is more
than double what China sold in February, the month immediately before the Iran War. For those keeping score at home,
that is movement toward green energy (which Trump hates), to the benefit of China (which Trump also hates). And the
Chinese have been preparing for this moment; they have the capacity to more than quadruple solar panel production,
if and when that is needed.
- Mortgages: The people and entities who buy government securities expect big-time inflation later this year. So, they are demanding higher rates of returns for treasury bills. That reverberates down the line, and affects the interest rates that banks charge customers. Yesterday, the average rate on a conventional 30-year home loan rose to 6.46%, which is the highest it's been in over a year. And if current trendlines hold, mortgage rates will reach a 20-year high in just a month or two.
It's not a secret that the impacts of wars are many and varied, but it helps to provide a few specifics to give a sense of things. (Z) has a lecture on the long-term consequences of the then-new technologies that played a major role in the Civil War. Perhaps he will write that up sometime soon as a different way of making this same point. (Z)
Texas Senate Race Sure Looks Like It's Going to Be Interesting
Whenever we write about U.S. Senate races in Texas, we feel a little bit like Charlie Brown trying to kick that football, the one that Lucy always yanks away at the last minute. The Democrats tend to come up with a scrappy, young, charismatic centrist who has the potential to attract independent and maybe even moderate Republican voters. The Republicans run a candidate with serious baggage, whether that baggage is that the candidate is a loathsome a**hole, or is insufficiently MAGA for the base, or is a corrupt sleazeball. Couple a matchup like that with the supposed "bluing" of the Lone Star State, and it seems like the Democrats might just kick that football this time. And yet, they never do (at least, not since Lloyd Bentsen won in 1988).
Still, we're suckers for an interesting political race. And we certainly have to write about Texas, since the road to potential Democratic control of the Senate may run right through there. So, we will note the new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, which certainly is going to gladden the hearts of members of the blue team.
The topline number(s) from the poll are these: state Rep. James Talarico (D) comes out on top of a hypothetical matchup with either of the two leading Republicans. Against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), he's up 44% to 41%, with 11% undecided and 4% favoring other candidates. Against state AG Ken Paxton (R), he's up 46% to 41%, with 9% undecided and 4% favoring other candidates. Neither lead is "commanding," though both are outside the ±2.5 point margin of error for the poll.
There has not been a lot of polling of the potential head-to-head matchups, because most pollsters are more interested right now in the Paxton vs. Cornyn matchup. And what polling there has been is mostly a couple of months old. However, one tentative conclusion is that Talarico has at least a little momentum right now. He consistently trailed both Paxton and Cornyn by a few points, and now the Democrat has flipped the script, in at least this one poll.
The poll also supports the general assumption that Cornyn gives the GOP a better chance than Paxton does. That said, it looks like it's a slightly better chance, rather than a vastly better chance. It is true that in a race that is very close, an extra point or two in the voting could be decisive. It is also true, however, that even if Cornyn goes on to win a nail-biter, the GOP will have spent nine figures to save him. That's money that can't be used on all the other critical, competitive races.
We should also take a quick look at the crosstabs of the new poll. First, the roughly 10% of voters who are undecided could be, and probably will be, well... decisive, ironically enough. According to the pollster's breakdown, Talarico is doing very well with Latino voters, in addition to the usual Black and college-educated voters. That is good news for him, since that would represent a swing from what happened in 2024. Also, Talarico remains the least-known of the three major-party candidates, which means he still has room to grow his support as more voters get to know him. Cornyn and Paxton are both known pretty much universally.
And speaking of Cornyn and Paxton, maybe part of the problem is Donald Trump and/or the Republican brand. But the bigger part of the problem is... Cornyn and Paxton. The same poll reports that Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is comfortably ahead of Gina Hinojosa (D), 48% to 43%. Clearly, this wasn't just an unusually blue sample of voters. Further, Abbott has a net favorability of +2 (48% approve to 46% disapprove). He's not widely beloved, but it's clear that he's MAGA enough to keep the Trumpers on board, and yet he's not so corrupt he's pushing away the moderate Republicans.
By contrast, Cornyn and Paxton are the two most unpopular Republicans in the state. Paxton's net approval is -10 (36% approve to 46% disapprove), while Cornyn's is -15 (33% approve to 48% disapprove). The only entity that's truly down there in the basement with them is the Democratic Party, which is at -12 (42% approve to 54% disapprove). Since Talarico is a Democrat, that's bad news for him, right? Possibly, though "the party" tends to always get more scorn than individual members of the party. The pollster also asked about "a Democratic candidate running for office," and while the Democratic Party is 12 points underwater, a person running for office as a member of the Democratic Party is only 4 points underwater (42% approve to 46% disapprove). Meanwhile, Talarico himself is 7 points above water (41% approve to 34% disapprove). That puts him 17 points up on Paxton and 22 points up on Cornyn.
So, at least based on the current information, Talarico might just pull this thing out. And now, if you'll excuse us, we have to go practice our field goal kicking. (Z)
Political Bytes: A Losing Proposition
Time for another roundup of stories from the last few days.
Underwater... Bigly: A new poll from Reuters/Ipsos reports that 32% of Americans like the idea of ending birthright citizenship. Meanwhile, 64% don't like the idea at all.
Our Take: This is the kind of profound insight you can really only develop with years of thinking and writing about politics: Having Americans oppose a signature policy initiative by a margin of 2-to-1, heading into a midterm election, is no bueno.
NICE, NICE Baby: Speaking of unpopular Trump administration policies, the President has figured out that he has a PR problem when it comes to ICE. He has also come up with a solution (or, at least, someone suggested a solution to him and he took ownership of it). His (apparent) plan: Change "Immigration and Customs Enforcement" to "National Immigration and Customs Enforcement." So, NICE instead of ICE. Problem solved!
Our Take: Trump was/is pretty good at licensing. He has never, ever been good at branding, which is why Trump Steaks, Trump airlines, Trump Vodka, etc. were all failures. If he has really deluded himself into thinking that this will do anything besides invite an avalanche of scorn and derision, he's nuts.
Planned... Cosmetic Procedures?: Having lost federal funding, at least until there's a Democratic trifecta again, Planned Parenthood (PP) has gotten creative in order to keep the doors open. Endowed, it would seem, with the necessary staff, equipment and client base, the organization has started offering Botox treatments. Since PP is a non-profit concern, their price for Botox ($9 per unit) is generally cheaper than any other provider.
Our Take: They stab it with their steely knives, but they just can't kill the beast.
Islamophilia: With the new, court-ordered map that will likely net them a U.S. House district in Utah, the state's Democratic operatives had to decide which candidate would get their endorsement. And the convention went with a candidate who seems to have been custom-designed to aggravate Donald Trump. It's Liban Mohamed, the liberal, Muslim son of Somali immigrants.
Our Take: There are still others in the primary, but the backing of the party functionaries is big. If Mohamed gets the nomination, and then the seat, Trump's head is going to explode. On the other hand, Democrats often prefer making statements rather than winning. If top priority were winning the seat, picking a native-born, third-generation Mormon Utahn might have been a good idea.
Just Joking: Another television star has made a joke at the expense of Donald Trump's mortality, on the heels of Jimmy Kimmel's joke of the sort that caused a conniption in the White House. It is improbable that we will see conniption v2.0, however, as the TV star in question is Donald Trump. Meeting with Charles III, and accompanied by the First Lady, Trump observed that his parents were married for 63 years, and then told Melania "[T]hat's a record we won't be able to match, darling. I'm sorry. Just not gonna work out that way."
Our Take: As everyone knows, the penalty for joking about the president's demise is that you're fired. We don't make the rules here, we just make sure they're enforced consistently. So, time to take care of business, Congress.
End of Days: Many readers (thanks!) sent us the link to this website, which has also been on fire on social media. It's a countdown how many days are left in Trump's presidency. He just dropped below 1,000 days left (he's now down to 997), hence the surge on social media.
Our Take: That means that 464 days of his term have elapsed, as of this writing. Funny, feels more like 464 years.
And that's the latest. We want you to go to the window, open it, stick your head out and yell: "I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore." (Z & A)
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