Mouseovers have been added to the map. Put your mouse cursor on a state
to see the three most recent polls (if they exist).
We have six (!) new polls of New Hampshire today. The polls ought
to be pretty accurate since probably every voter in the whole state has been
polled by now. Here are the averages. For the Democrats:
Barack Obama: 33.2%
Hillary Clinton: 31.2%
John Edwards: 19.2%
For the Republicans
John McCain: 32.7%
Mitt Romney: 27.8%
Mike Huckabee: 12.0%
Rudy Giuliani: 9.6%
Fred Thompson: 2.5%
Unfortunately, the polls are not accurate at all, but for a different
reason than in Iowa. About 40% of the electorate consists of independents
and they can ask for either a Democratic ballot or a Republican ballot
(but not both, of course). Many of them like both Obama and McCain, so the
race may be decided by how many choose a Democratic ballot and how many
choose a Republican ballot. We won't know how they broke until Tuesday.
That choice chould have much larger implications. Suppose the eventual
nominees are Obama and McCain. Then Tuesday's race could be the first data
point on how independents view a head-to-head between those two.
Clearly it is going to an exciting race in New Hampshire.
The Republicans held their caucuses yesterday in Wyoming. Romney got 67%
of the vote, Thompson got 25%, and Duncan Hunter got 8%. Nobody campaigned
there much and nobody seems to be paying much attention now. And Wyoming
isn't just any old state, it is Dick Cheney's home state.
The New Hampshire polling data is below. The complete data for all states is