Nov. 03 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 353   McCain 185  
Senate Dem 58   GOP 42  
House Dem 249   GOP 184   Ties 2

 
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This day in 2004


strong Dem Strong Dem (238)
weak Dem Weak Dem (73)
barely Dem Barely Dem (42)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (53)
weak GOP Weak GOP (14)
strong GOP Strong GOP (118)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: CO FL IL IN KY ME MN MO NC NM NV OH PA VA RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO FL IA NV NM NC OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA SMS


PW logo Strategic Vision: Obama Keeps Lead in Pennsylvania SurveyUSA: Obama Just Ahead in Ohio
SurveyUSA: Missouri is a Toss Up PPP Poll: McCain Clings to Lead in Georgia
Democrats Set to Increase House, Senate Majorities Marist Poll: Obama Leads by Nine Points

News from the Votemaster

Comparison with 2004

The tables below show the states John Kerry won in 2004 on the left and the states George Bush won in 2004 on the right. The states in both columns are listed in order of the Obama-McCain score based on the recent 2008 Obama-McCain polling data. The states that are colored blue are the ones Obama now leads in; the red states are the ones McCain now leads in. As can be seen, Obama leads in all the Kerry states and some of the Bush states. He needs to pick up 17 electoral votes from the Bush states to tie and 18 to win.

States Kerry won in 2004
State Obama McCain Diff
D.C. 82% 13% 69%
Hawaii 68% 27% 41%
New York 64% 31% 33%
Delaware 63% 33% 30%
California 61% 35% 26%
Illinois 60% 38% 22%
Rhode Island 48% 26% 22%
Connecticut 56% 35% 21%
Vermont 57% 36% 21%
Maryland 57% 38% 19%
Massachusetts 55% 37% 18%
New Jersey 54% 37% 17%
Oregon 56% 39% 17%
Washington 54% 39% 15%
Maine 56% 43% 13%
Michigan 52% 39% 13%
New Hampshire 53% 40% 13%
Wisconsin 53% 41% 12%
Minnesota 52% 41% 11%
Pennsylvania 52% 44% 8%
         
States Bush won in 2004
State Obama McCain Diff
Iowa 53% 40% 13%
New Mexico 52% 44% 8%
Colorado 51% 44% 7%
Nevada 50% 44% 6%
Ohio 49% 44% 5%
Virginia 50% 45% 5%
Florida 49% 45% 4%
North Carolina 48% 46% 2%
Missouri 47% 48% -1%
North Dakota 46% 47% -1%
Indiana 46% 48% -2%
Arizona 45% 49% -4%
Georgia 46% 50% -4%
Montana 45% 49% -4%
West Virginia 43% 51% -8%
Arkansas 44% 53% -9%
South Dakota 44% 53% -9%
Louisiana 40% 50% -10%
Mississippi 43% 53% -10%
South Carolina 43% 53% -10%
Texas 41% 52% -11%
Kentucky 41% 55% -14%
Tennessee 40% 54% -14%
Kansas 39% 56% -17%
Alaska 40% 58% -18%
Nebraska 37% 56% -19%
Utah 32% 56% -24%
Alabama 36% 61% -25%
Wyoming 36% 61% -25%
Idaho 33% 62% -29%
Oklahoma 34% 63% -29%

Problems Expected on Election Day

Despite millions of people voting early, problems are still expected at polling places around the country according to voting experts. Many voters and poll workers will be using equipment they are not familiar with, lines will be long, ballots may be in short supply, and many people will have short fuses due to the expected difficulties. Thousands of lawyers are ready to sue at the drop of a ballot. Somehow, it would seem that the richest country in the history of the world could do better than this.

Previous elections were not without problems, though. The most contested state in 2000 was Florida, where Katherine Harris (R) was the secretary of state and ran the election as well as being a strong advocate for George Bush. In 2004, the most contested state was Ohio, where Ken Blackwell (R) was the secretary of state as well as being honorary co-chair of Bush's reelection committee. This time, the secretaries of state in seven key swing states are Democrats. These states are Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia. However, in other key states, including Florida and Colorado the secretaries of state are Republicans. In North Carolina, the chairman of the board of elections is a Democrat. Politico has a story on the subject. It is really horrible that partisan affiliation of the election officers is relevant, but unfortunately, public trust in the integrity of the elections is so low that it is an issue.

The Battle for Ohio Continues

Despite the expected voting problems, the candidates were out on the trail trying to convince the ever-decreasing pool of undecided voters to go their way. Ohio was a key target yesterday. The state has been hit hard by the economy, losing 300,000 manufacturing jobs this decade, but it is no slam dunk for Barack Obama. Both he and John McCain were campaigning hard here this weekend. Many pro-Obama college-educated voters have left the state, abortion is still a hot issue with the state's large ethnic population, and residual racism still exists in parts of the state. All in all, Obama is slightly ahead here, but a McCain win is certainly possible. George Bush won the state by 2%.

A Demographic View of the Swing States

William Frey and Ruy Teixeira did a demographic analysis that seems to explain why Obama is doing better in some swing states (e.g., Virginia and New Mexico) than in others (e.g, Ohio, and Missouri). It has to do with demographics. The states he does well in are low in white working class voters, and high in white college graduates and minorities. Here are figures taken from their presentation that make this point.

trends

Will This Election Be Decided by the Courts Again?

The Florida 2000 election introduced a fundamentally new paradigm into elections: you campaign as hard as you can and if you don't like the results, you sue. Candidates now refer to a close election as being "within the margin of litigation." The combination of partisan election officials, a polarized country, and a "win-at-all-costs" attitude among the parties has led to a situation in which voters have increasingly little confidence in the electoral process. Prof. Rick Hasen, an election law specialist, has written a good article on elections and litigation.

Obama Still Leading in the National Polls

We have 10 national polls today. On average, Obama's lead is 7.1%. Here are the data.

      - CBS News (Obama +13)
      - Diageo (Obama +5)
      - Gallup Expanded (Obama +9)
      - IBD (Obama +2)
      - Opinion Research (Obama +7)
      - Pew (Obama +6)
      - Rasmussem (Obama +5)
      - Research 2000 (Obama +7)
      - Washington Post/ABC News (Obama +11)
      - Zogby (Obama +6)

Today's Polls

We have 23 presidential polls today. Nothing fundamental has changed over the past few days. Barack Obama still has small leads in Colorado, Florida, and Ohio. Missouri and North Carolina are tossups. New Mexico and Iowa seem safe for Obama.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Colorado 49% 44% Oct 28 Oct 29 Mason-Dixon
Florida 48% 46% Oct 30 Nov 02 Zogby
Illinois 60% 38% Nov 01 Nov 01 Rasmussen
Indiana 44% 49% Oct 30 Nov 02 Zogby
Kentucky 40% 56% Oct 29 Nov 01 SurveyUSA
Maine 56% 43% Nov 01 Nov 01 Rasmussen
Minnesota 49% 46% Oct 30 Nov 01 SurveyUSA
Minnesota 53% 42% Oct 29 Oct 31 Princeton Survey
Missouri 46% 47% Oct 29 Oct 30 Mason-Dixon
Missouri 47% 46% Oct 30 Nov 02 Zogby
North Carolina 46% 49% Oct 29 Oct 30 Mason-Dixon
North Carolina 48% 49% Oct 30 Nov 02 Zogby
New Mexico 51% 43% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research and Polling
Nevada 47% 43% Oct 28 Oct 29 Mason-Dixon
Nevada 51% 43% Oct 30 Nov 02 Zogby
Ohio 45% 47% Oct 29 Oct 30 Mason-Dixon
Ohio 50% 44% Oct 30 Nov 02 Zogby
Ohio 52% 46% Oct 22 Oct 31 Columbus Dispatch
Pennsylvania 51% 44% Oct 29 Oct 31 SurveyUSA
Pennsylvania 52% 46% Nov 01 Nov 01 Rasmussen
Pennsylvania 54% 40% Oct 30 Nov 02 Zogby
Virginia 50% 46% Oct 30 Nov 01 SurveyUSA
Virginia 51% 45% Oct 30 Nov 02 Zogby

We also have six Senate polls. Probably the biggest cliffhanger will be Minnesota, where it is deadlocked. One poll puts Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) ahead by 5 points and another puts his challenger, Al Franken, ahead by 4. However, in recent days, there have been allegations that Coleman received a gift of $75,000 which he did not report on his Senate disclosure form. Failure to report gifts is a federal felony, one which Sen. Ted. Stevens (R-AK) was convicted of last week. Coleman denies that he did anything wrong. If Coleman wins, the Senate ethics committee is likely to investigate him. In Kentucky, it looks like Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will survive.

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
Iowa Tom Harkin* 47% Christopher Reed 31% Oct 28 Oct 31 Selzer
Kentucky Bruce Lunsford 45% Mitch McConnell* 53% Oct 29 Nov 01 SurveyUSA
Maine Tom Allen 41% Susan Collins* 57% Nov 01 Nov 01 Rasmussen
Minnesota Al Franken 39% Norm Coleman* 44% Oct 30 Nov 01 SurveyUSA
Minnesota Al Franken 42% Norm Coleman* 38% Oct 29 Oct 31 Star Tribune
Virginia Mark Warner 59% Jim Gilmore* 35% Oct 30 Nov 01 SurveyUSA

We also have five House polls. Democrats seem poised to pick up all three New Mexico House seats as well as the Senate seat up for grabs this year. They already have the other Senate seat and the governorship. In MN-03, the Republicans have the edge on holding this open seat. In MN-06, where Michele Bachmann unleased fireworks on Hardball, it is a statistical tie.

Cong. Distr. Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
MN-03 Ashwin Madia 41% Erik Paulsen* 46% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
MN-06 Elwyn Tinklenberg 45% Michele Bachmann* 46% Oct 29 Oct 30 SurveyUSA
NM-01 Martin Heinrich 47% Darren White* 43% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research and Polling
NM-02 Harry Teague 45% Edward Tinsley* 41% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research and Polling
NM-03 Ben Lujan* 51% Daniel East 23% Oct 28 Oct 30 Research and Polling

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