News from the Votemaster

Poll: Trump, Rubio, and Cruz Rising, Carson Falling

A new Quinnipiac University national poll still has Donald Trump on top, but with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) moving up while Ben Carson has dropped significantly. Everyone else is down in the weeds. Here are the numbers. The fourth column is the change since the last Quinnipiac poll.

National
Rank	Candidate	Pct	Change
1	Donald Trump	27%	+3%
2	Marco Rubio	17%	+3%
3	Ted Cruz	16%	+3%
3	Ben Carson	16%	-7%
5	Jeb Bush	5%	+1%
6	Carly Fiorina	3%	+0%
7	Rand Paul	2%	+0%
7	Chris Christie	2%	-1%
7	John Kasich	2%	-1%
10	Mike Huckabee	1%	+0%
	Lindsey Graham	<1%
	George Pataki	<1%
	Jim Gilmore	<1%
	Rick Santorum	<1%

With a margin of error of 3.8%, Carson is the only one to move an amount outside the margin of error. His general (and admitted) lack of knowledge about foreign policy is probably catching up with him. Republicans want a strong Commander-in-chief and that is simply not Carson's strong suit. (V)

Another Day, Another Mass Shooting

It's hardly news any more, but there was another mass shooting yesterday, this time in San Bernadino, California. Fourteen people died and another 17 were injured. Some of the presidential candidates reacted on Twitter, as follows:

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton: I refuse to accept this as normal. We must take action to stop gun violence now.

Bernie Sanders: Mass shootings are becoming an almost-everyday occurrence in this country. This sickening and senseless gun violence must stop.

Martin O'Malley: Horrifying news out of #SanBernardino. Enough is enough: it's time to stand up to the @NRA and enact meaningful gun safety laws.


REPUBLICANS

Donald Trump: California shooting looks very bad. Good luck to law enforcement and God bless. This is when our police are so appreciated!

Ted Cruz: Our prayers are with the victims, their families, and the first responders in San Bernardino who willingly go into harm's way to save others.

Ben Carson: My thoughts and prayers are with the shooting victims and their families in San Bernardino.

Jeb Bush: Praying for the victims, their families & the San Bernardino first responders in the wake of this tragic shooting.

John Kasich: My thoughts & prayers go out to those impacted by the shooting in San Bernardino, especially the first responders.

Chris Christie: Praying for all those victimized by the shootings in San Bernardino, California today.

Mike Huckabee: Praying for those impacted by the shooting in California today.

George Pataki: Praying for the victims and first responders in #SanBernardino for a quick resolution.

Lindsey Graham: Thoughts & prayers are with #SanBernardino.

Rand Paul: My thoughts and prayers are with the victims, families, and brave first responders during this unspeakable tragedy.

Rick Santorum: Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims, their loved ones and all those impacted by today's tragedy in California #SanBernadino

So what's the conclusion? The Democrats want to take action and pass new laws that might stop crazy people from obtaining guns. Donald Trump wants to bless the police. All the other Republicans want to pray although none specify even approximately what they are asking God to do. Usually when you pray you have one or more requests you would like God to fulfill. Do they want Him to directly intervene and prevent crazy people from getting guns, so Congress doesn't have to? Not one of the Republicans offered anything concrete other than urging people to pray but not saying what for.

The New York Daily News, a very conservative newspaper, ran the front page shown at the right today. Click it for a larger image. Tim Kreider writing in The Week points out that there is a standard template for dealing with mass shootings. Here are the items expected of everyone: Express grief, especially when stimulated by the media to do so Issue an anguished call to understand how this could happen If liberal, call for gun control; if conservative, call for monitoring the mentally ill Decry the culture of violence Use words like "tragedy" and "senseless" immediately A few days later, use "politicize" Ultimately, call for people to come together to heal Move on to the next order of business but save the script for the next mass shooting Kreider cannot imagine a catastrophe sufficiently ghastly that anything will ever change. (V)

Secret Memo Advises Republicans How to Behave if Trump is the Nominee

The Washington Post has obtained a secret memo in which the head of the NRSC advises Republican senatorial candidates what they should do and say in the event Donald Trump is the Republican presidential nominee. Unlike all the tweets about San Bernadino, Republicans are not advised to hide under their desks and pray. The candidates are advised to adopt his tactics, issues, and approaches, including how they dress and use Twitter. They should also pretend they are genuine and beyond the reach of the special interests.

The memo does not explain how, say, a three-term senator up to his ears in special-interest money is going to convince anyone that he is an outsider who is not beholden to anyone and who is prepared to burn the place down. One area candidates are advised not to mimic Trump is attacking women. The memo even suggests some visuals for ads, for example, a farmer removing a rotten tree stump so he can plow the field. Although that would implicitly compare the Senate to a rotten tree stump, it would probably better not to be too explicit about the comparison. (V)

TV Ad Spending Is Not Delivering Results

A lot of money has already been spent on TV ads, both by candidates and by their super PACS, but it is not always having much effect. By far the biggest spenders are Jeb Bush and his super PAC, but the candidate is still languishing in the single digits. Here is how much each candidate and allied super PACs have spent up to this week. (V)

Candidate	Total TV spending
Jeb Bush	$28.9 million
Marco Rubio	$10.6 million
Hillary Clinton	$9.7 million
John Kasich	$8.0 million
Chris Christie	$6.4 million
Bernie Sanders	$4.9 million
Ben Carson	$2.0 million
Rand Paul	$0.9 million
Ted Cruz	$0.7 million
Donald Trump	$0.2 million

Everybody Hates Ted Cruz

Well, not everybody—just the people who know him. According to Frank Bruni, in an op-ed for the New York Times, the list includes Cruz' Senate colleagues, his compatriots on the Bush 2000 campaign team, and even his college roommate Craig Mazin, who says, "I would rather have anybody else be the president of the United States. Anyone. I would rather pick somebody from the phone book."

Bruni acknowledges Cruz' strengths, including his keen intellect and tireless work ethic, but also identifies the personality traits that alienate, well, pretty much everyone. These include arrogance, abrasiveness, willingness to place himself above the team, self-involvement, and a tendency towards gratuitous personal attacks. As one associate jokes, "Why do people take such an instant dislike to Ted Cruz? It just saves time." Bruni concludes that this kind of personality is not well suited to the Presidency, and it's hard to argue with him. (Z)

Cruz' Assertion about Violent Criminals Doesn't Hold Up

On Monday, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) declared that "The overwhelming majority of violent criminals are Democrats." The media quickly pounced on the statement, with some outlets—including Politifact and the Washington Post—quickly debunking the assertion. Others, such as CNN, pressed Cruz as to his source for this "information." Now, everybody knows what his source is, namely the transitive property. Cruz reasoned that most violent criminals are minorities, and most minorities are Democrats, and therefore most violent criminals are Democrats. Cruz cannot admit that, however, so instead he said he made a "reasonable inference" and cited an analysis by Marc Meredith and Michael Morse entitled "Do Voting Rights Notification Laws Increase Ex-Felon Turnout?" The study was published in the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science; undoubtedly the Senator is a voracious reader of that publication, which has a circulation around 1,500.

On Wednesday, Meredith and Morse themselves spoke up, and declared flatly that Cruz had misrepresented their study, that the data do not support his "reasonable inference," and that to the extent that a conclusion can be reached, the data suggest that violent criminals are fairly evenly divided in their political loyalty. They also observe, as did we, that the majority of violent felons aren't members of any party, because they are disenfranchised. Presumably, Cruz will soon be canceling his lifetime subscription to Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. (Z)

Alan Grayson's Key Staff Members Quit

Firebrand congressman Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Marco Rubio. He is reputed to be a micromanager and difficult to get along with. Evidence of the latter is the recent departure of his campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, and senior advisor. Generally, it is not a good sign when the entire top tier of a candidate's staff leaves in a huff. Interestingly enough, the DSCC is undoubtedly overjoyed that his campaign is a mess. He is unpopular with the party leadership and seen as a far weaker general-election candidate than his primary rival, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL), a young moderate and heir to a construction-industry fortune. (V)

Our December Ranking of the Republican Candidates

Below is our December 2015 list of 2016 Republican presidential candidates in roughly the order of most likely to be nominated to least likely. The strengths and weaknesses of each one in the primaries are listed. Note that what is a strength in the primaries may be a weakness in the general election and vice versa. For example, Jeb Bush's wife is a Mexican-American, which may hurt him in the primaries but help him in the general election.

Candidate	Advantages in Primaries	Disadvantages in Primaries
Marco Rubio	American-dream type biography Can get votes from all wings of the party Young and telegenic, sort of like Jack Kennedy Very charismatic and likable From the mother of all swing states Sounds presidential when delivering talking points	Has misrepresented elements of that biography First-term senator Something of a lightweight on policy Supported Senate immigration bill before he opposed it Doesn't do well when going off-script Personal finances raise a lot of questions Seems more suited to the second slot on the ticket
Ted Cruz	Republican establishment hates him Called Mitch McConnell a liar Tea party darling Young, fiery, and very conservative Surprisingly good at fund raising Excellent speaker and debater Well organized in Super Tuesday states Deploying his outspoken father Rafael to great effect	Republican establishment hates him First-term senator For a first-term senator, has an lof of enemies Has more enemies than six-term senators Masterminded the 2013 government shutdown Too much of a firebrand for some voters Too establishment for some outsider voters Too outsider for some establishment voters Are evangelical voters enough to take the nomination?
Donald Trump	Loved by "poke-'em-in-the-eye" voters Has been atop the polls for months Actually created thousands of jobs Can't be bribed, could self-fund Says things no one else dares to say Not a politician Brilliant self-promoter The most famous Republican candidate	Would be crushed by Clinton Establishment will do anything to stop him Used to be fairly liberal Not exactly sure where the Middle East is Demeaned John McCain's war record Lots of sexist, racist, and Islamophobic remarks His hair gets more attention than Hillary's The most infamous Republican candidate
Jeb Bush	Establishment loves him Executive experience galore Huge, battle-tested field operation From the mother of all swing states SuperPAC has more money than Uncle Scrooge	Grassroots hates him Weak campaigner, keeps inserting foot in mouth Has to defend his unpopular brother Wrong positions on immigration & Common Core Married to a Latina Barbara Bush: "We've had enough Bushes" Will Jeb fix it? Not so far.
John Kasich	Could be establishment fallback if others stumble Twice elected in swing state of Ohio From the Midwest, which could help in Iowa Serious candidate, which could help in NH Would win some Democrats in general election	Not well known Running on competence, not ideology Said St. Peter likes poor people Supported Medicaid expansion & Common Core Has performed poorly in debates
Chris Christie	Aggressive character Ran the RGA well; popular with governors Won election twice in a blue state #4 with GOP leaders after Bush, Rubio & Kasich Endorsed by New Hampshire Union Leader	Polling badly in home state Hugged Obama Has only recently "discovered" he's ultraconservative Last fat President was William Howard Taft; but White House bathtub is bigger now Lambasted by Newark, NJ Star-Ledger Demoted from main stage at last GOP debate We'll cross that bridge when we come to it—if it is open
Carly Fiorina	Ran a Fortune 500 company Can attack Clinton without being called sexist Took on liberal icon Barbara Boxer in 2010 Self-made multimillionaire Could self fund in the primaries for a while Good knowledge of the issues and good debater Not a politician	Was fired from a Fortune 500 Company Got $20 million severance when fired Was crushed by Barbara Boxer in 2010 No political experience Barebones political operation Not raising enough money
Ben Carson	Devoted following Was polling very well for a while A more polite version of Donald Trump Not a politician Married to the same woman for 40 years Allows racist voters to say they are not racist Willing to question orthodoxy...	Prone to gaffes His numbers are trending downward He's black in a nearly all white party Never held public office Not a dynamic speaker or debater Not politically savvy To some people, he comes over as kooky Very weak on foreign policy Does he want to be president or just sell books?
Rand Paul	Could bring in new Republican voters Inherits his father's zealots Dislikes Big Government spying on people Does not tailor his views to pander to voters	Doesn't like wars Doesn't support "Israel good, Arabs bad" policy More of a libertarian than a conservative Was cheered at UC Berkeley Establishment is lukewarm on him First-term senator
Mike Huckabee	Good sense of humor and very likable Ordained Baptist minister Southerner in a party whose base is the South Well known due to 2008 run and Fox show Economic populist	As Arkansas governor raised taxes repeatedly Very poor fundraiser Unpopular outside the South Did badly in 2008 against a much weaker field Appeals only to evangelicals, who largely favor Cruz and Carson over him
Rick Santorum	Been around the track before Won Iowa caucuses in 2012 Very strong social conservative Comes from a big blue state	Didn't win in a much weaker 2012 field One-trick pony: only social conservatism Tends to lecture people and not likable Voters in that big blue state tossed him overboard Running out of money
Lindsey Graham	Knowledgeable on foreign policy Retired Air Force colonel Kind of folksy From the South	Base hates him Lifelong bachelor in family values party Short and dresses like a used-car salesman
George Pataki	Was elected governor of a blue state three times	George Who? Not allowed into the Republican debates without a ticket
Jim Gilmore	Nobody hates him	Nobody ever heard of him Lost 2008 Senate race to Mark Warner by 31 points British bookies give the ineligible Arnold Schwarzenegger better odds Also not allowed into the Republican debates without a ticket

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster