Tentative Primary and Caucus Schedule
  March 1 (Super Tues)
  March 2-14
L blue   March 15-31
Delegates needed for nomination:
GOP: 1237,   Dem: 2242
Map explained
New polls:  
Dem pickups:  
GOP pickups:  

News from the Votemaster

Cruz and Rubio Gun for Each Other, not for Trump

Quite a few political analysts think that the Republican nomination will come down to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) vs. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in the end, after the outsiders vanish (although some of those outsiders show no signs of doing so quite yet). Cruz and Rubio apparently agree with that view and have been lobbing broadsides at each other of late. A group backing Rubio is running an ad accusing Cruz of being weak on terror (which is like accusing Vlad the Impaler of being weak on terror). A pro-Cruz group shot back with an ad saying Rubio supports amnesty for illegal aliens. Rubio's group is also going after Cruz (who prides himself on being for small government) for voting against letting the NSA collect everything about anyone. Of course, if Trump fails to go gentle into that good night, as Cruz and Rubio expect, one or both of them may end up battling him, with a completely different set of ground rules. (V)

What Happened to Bush?

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Jeb Bush, the smart Bush, raised $100 million in nothing flat and was supposed to wipe out the opposition with shock and awe. In reality, he hasn't polled in the double digits nationally or in any state for months and is lucky if he comes in fifth in any poll. What happened and will he throw in the towel, like Rick Perry, who was also supposed to zoom to the top and scare off all the competition?

Long-time Bush watchers say Jeb's style hasn't changed but the times have changed and he hasn't adapted. The last time he ran for office, in 2002, social media didn't exist and well-thought-out, conservative policy positions meant a lot. Now they don't count for beans. Also, two positions that didn't used to be litmus tests for conservatives—comprehensive immigration reform and the Common Core educational standards—are huge obstacles for him because the GOP base is now virulently opposed to both and Bush supports them. The fact that he governed Florida as a conservative and used his line-item-veto power 2,549 times to reduce the size of the Florida government got him the nickname "Veto Corleone." He intervened in the Terri Schaivo case, earning him plaudits from pro-life conservatives. None of that seems to matter now.

The mechanics of campaigning have also changed since 2002. It used to be linear. You would go to an event, give a speech, shake hands with voters, eat some ethnic food for the locals, answer a few questions from reporters, get in the bus, go to the next event, and repeat ad infinitum. You didn't have to instantly respond to a million people on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Donald Trump can send forth 140 characters and be the #1 news story of the day, any day he wants to (and he often wants to). Bush doesn't seem to be able to do this. Nevertheless, people who know him say that Bushes don't give up and his super PAC still has tens of millions of dollars in the bank, so he is not likely to exit until actual voters tell him to. (V)

Trump's Pants on Fire, Yet Again

New York Times reporter Serge F. Kovaleski suffers from arthrogryposis, which means that he has very limited flexibility in his joints. On Tuesday, Donald Trump was talking about one of the journalist's articles, said "you ought to see this guy," and launched into an impromptu performance in which he jerked his arms around and held his hands at right angles. The Times' management was outraged, and demanded an apology from the Donald.

On Thursday, Trump answered in his usual fashion. He blasted the Times on Twitter, writing, "So, since the people at the @nytimes have made all bad decisions over the last decade, why do people care what they write. Incompetent!" among several other similar tweets. Trump also asserted, in various interviews, that (1) he was misread, (2) he wants an apology, and (3) he has never even met Kovaleski. The problem is that Trump has indeed met the reporter—at least a dozen times. They have done multiple interviews, in fact, to the point that the pair were on a first-name basis. So Pinocchio does not seem to be learning his lesson—he'll never get to be a real president if he keeps up this way. (Z)

Carson Headed to Jordan

Plummeting in the polls thanks to his shaky foreign policy credentials, Ben Carson will travel to the Azraq refugee camp in northern Jordan. He freely acknowledges that the trip is meant to rebuild his image, explaining that, "I find when you have first-hand knowledge of things as opposed to second-hand, it makes a much stronger impression."

Will it work? The trip might make for some good photo-ops, but it is hard to see how spending a few hours in a refugee camp will erase the memory of all of the foreign policy missteps of the last two weeks. It could even backfire—if Carson maintains his generally harsh rhetoric after witnessing actual human suffering, he could appear heartless. Either way, it is probably not a good investment of Carson's time or money. (Z)

McConnell Wants to Eliminate Caps of Party Spending

Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is planning to insert a rider into the must-pass omnibus spending package that would eliminate the limit on how much parties can spend in coordination with their candidates. This would continue the trend of allowing wealthy donors to exert more influence over elections. The overall trend has been toward more money in politics, starting with the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, though last year's change raising the limit of how much a single rich donor can give to the national party committees per year (from $97,200 to $777,600) certainly helped wealthy donors as well. Some observers feel that given that a lot of money is going to be spent one way or another, it is better that the parties are in charge since they focus on winning rather than pushing a particular ideology, which leads to more moderate candidates. (V)

Obama Equates Syrian Refugees to the Mayflower Pilgrims

In his weekly radio address, delivered on Thursday as opposed to the usual Saturday, President Obama made clear that decisions about refugees are the federal government's prerogative, and that state governors would not be allowed to refuse Syrians admitted into the country. Not wanting to miss a golden opportunity for a Thanksgiving metaphor, he also compared the refugees to the Pilgrims:

In 1620, a small band of pilgrims came to this continent, refugees who had fled persecution and violence in their native land. Nearly 400 years later, we remember their part in the American story—and we honor the men and women who helped them in their time of need...Nearly four centuries after the Mayflower set sail, the world is still full of pilgrims—men and women who want nothing more than the chance for a safer, better future for themselves and their families. What makes America America is that we offer that chance.

The parallel is not entirely outlandish—it is true that the Pilgrims (at least some of them) were fleeing a government they did not care for, and it is also true that the disagreement was (partly) religious in nature. The parallels pretty much end there, however, so Obama really had to sell it. He's still stronger on his U.S. history than Donald Trump is, at least. (Z)

Some of the Ways Candidates Are Trying to Appeal to Millennials are Lame

Millennials (born between about 1980 and about 2000) are about 90 million strong and account for about 40% of the voters. About half of them are independents, so candidates are trying hard to get their attention. Political consultants know they don't like being approached in traditional ways, and certainly not with serious television ads explaining what the candidate will do for them. So they are (feebly) trying to "speak the language" of the millennials, often with disastrous results, like these:

  • Ben Carson made a very peculiar rap ad with him doing a voiceover on top of a music track
  • Ted Cruz posed shirtless with his chest completely covered with Photoshopped tattoos
  • Hillary Clinton tried to start a conversation about college debt using emojis
  • John Kasich made a bacon Snapchat geofilter
  • Jeb Bush fired off a Star Wars tweet/graphic in which "Jeb!" became "Jedi Force!"
  • Rand Paul released a photo-editing app so you can appear to "Stand with Rand"
  • John Kasich and Martin O'Malley are piggybacking on Uber's kitten delivery stunt on National Cat Day
  • Rick Perry released a country rap song and music video
  • The usually fiery Bernie Sanders danced with Ellen Degeneres and said what flavor ice cream he'd like to be
  • Ted Cruz impersonated Homer Simpson
  • Hillary Clinton Snapchatted herself hanging out of a canoe—but it got 24 million views on Vine

When old people try to act cool on the Internet, this is what you get. (V)

Thanksgiving-themed Political Cartoons are Rampant

Political cartoonists love Thanksgiving. Here is some of their output.

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster
Nov26 Thanksgiving is Upon Us
Nov26 Koch Brothers Give Free Turkeys to Latinos
Nov26 Koch Brothers, Karl Rove, and Jeb Bush Are Afraid to Take on Trump
Nov26 Cruz Moves Up to Second Place in National Poll
Nov26 Trump Don't Know Much About History
Nov26 Rubio: God's Law Trumps Federal Law
Nov26 Clinton Still Ahead of Sanders in Iowa
Nov26 Islamophobia Has Consequences
Nov25 Half the GOP Delegates Will Be Chosen by March 15
Nov25 Is Trump's Nomination Inevitable?
Nov25 81% of Americans Don't Trust the Government
Nov25 Sanders, Trump, and Cruz Make the New Hampshire Ballot
Nov25 Does Clinton Have a Wall Street Problem?
Nov25 Clinton Apologizes for Use of Term Illegal Immigrant
Nov25 Rubio-backed Provision Could Cripple the ACA
Nov25 Kentucky Governor Restores Voting Rights to Some Criminals
Nov24 Americans Trust Clinton More Than Republicans on Terrorism
Nov24 Republicans Plan for Super Tuesday
Nov24 White Christians No Longer a Majority in the U.S.
Nov24 Rubio Mostly Appeals to Old People
Nov24 Did Carson Also See Muslims Cheering on 9/11, or Maybe Not?
Nov24 Truth Gets Trumped This Election Season
Nov24 The Media Strike Back
Nov24 Four Candidates to Get Equal Time on NBC
Nov24 Veteran Democratic Operative Fears Kasich the Most
Nov23 Cruz Moves into Second Place in Iowa as Carson Tumbles
Nov23 Nationally, Little Has Changed Since Before the Paris Attacks
Nov23 Six Different Republicans Would Beat Hillary Clinton?
Nov23 Trump Doing a Thriving Trade in Bigotry
Nov23 Trump Refuses To Rule Out a Third-Party Run
Nov23 Is the United States #1?
Nov23 Will 2016 Shatter the Republican Party?
Nov22 David Vitter's Political Career Ends
Nov22 Clinton and Sanders Duel on Health Care
Nov22 Clinton is Trying to Lock Up the Nomination Quickly
Nov22 Kamala Harris' Senate Campaign is in Disarray
Nov22 Is the Bloom Off Ben Carson's Rose?
Nov22 Republican Voters Are Scared
Nov22 Why Do Poor People Vote Republican?
Nov22 ACA Enrollment for 2017 Begins Oct. 1, 2016
Nov21 Republican Operative Plans to Destroy Trump
Nov21 CNN Announces Polling Thresholds for the Dec. 15 Debate
Nov21 Runoff Election in Louisiana is Today
Nov21 How Do the Paris Attacks Affect Individual Candidates
Nov21 What to Do About Islamophobia?
Nov21 Refugees are Not the Problem
Nov21 The Media is to Blame for the Media Circus
Nov20 Nationally, Trump Still Ahead By a Wide Margin
Nov20 Trump Would Require All Muslims to Register with the Government
Nov20 Can Trump Survive the Establishment Onslaught?