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The 2025 Election: Post Mortem, Part II

On Wednesday, we wrote up the election results—about 3,500 words, which is pretty good given that time was limited and there were still some results that were not known.

We should have realized, however, that there would need to be some follow-up pieces, and should have headlined that piece accordingly. Oh well, live and learn. So, like they did with the Indiana Jones films, we will incorporate the need for sequels into the second title in the series, if not the first. There's actually quite a bit more to be said, including some very useful reader comments. So today, we'll cover a couple of angles, and then we'll have more post mortem items next week.

Donald Trump

There are several Trump-related angles worthy of some attention. To start with, one of the big stories before the election was the Department of Justice's announcement that it would be sending "election monitors" to California and New Jersey. This was (and may still be) the trial run for an overall program of voter intimidation in 2026.

This week, however, the election monitors were a non-story. Since that was an "angle," reporters were looking for them and largely could not find them. For example, there were apparently only two of them in all of Fresno County, which was one of five counties in California that the DoJ said needed special attention. In all cases where an election monitor was spotted, they were way outnumbered by counter-monitors there to make sure people's rights were observed, and to make sure that the feds kept their noses clean.

According to the handful of reports from people who were actually able to find one of the DoJ-sent monitors, the people doing the job were political appointees, like Assistant Attorney General Michael Gates. Maybe this is a very good sign, that the administration can't find many people to do "monitoring," outside of a few hardcore MAGA loyalists. Alternatively, maybe they were just collecting intel for a larger operation next year. If so, it's hard to imagine how much they could plausibly have learned.

We also heard from reader T.O. in Dallas, TX, who urges us to keep an eye out for any reports of election fraud, since those will be the pretext for sending various sorts of goons against voters in 2026. We actually have been keeping an eye out, and we have seen no such stories. Maybe we're not looking in the right places; after all, we are not devoted fans of LindellTV. However, it could also be that it's way harder to sell such tall tales when the margins of victory are large, as they were Tuesday. Alternatively, it could be that claims of voter fraud only gain traction in the right-wing ecosystem when they involve turning Trump losses into Trump "wins." If either of these things is true, it would be good news for the 2026 cycle.

Whatever the President might say publicly, his words and actions in private (even if it turns out to be not so private) make clear that he knows the Republicans took a beating on Tuesday. He's indulged in at least two temper tantrums at the expense of his fellow Republicans, with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) particular targets of his ire. He blames the shutdown for the defeats, and he says that the shutdown is the Republican senators' fault. There are at least a couple of big assumptions in there that are dubious, at best. Certainly, it's a very convenient way to make the losses the fault of everyone except the guy at the very top of the political food chain. Reader D.E. in Lancaster, PA, sent in a few words on this subject:

Trump held a White House breakfast for the Republicans in the House and Senate after their very poor showings in the 2025 elections. The Republicans in attendance were described as very quiet and unsettled. Trump, being Trump, was described as angry. He tried to push the Senate Republicans to abolish the filibuster, but his calls were met with stony silence. It seems the news of his party's defeat in Tuesday's elections did not go over well.

I pulled some strings with a few White House operatives I know, and have been able to get secret video footage of the meeting. For a clandestine recording, the image is remarkably clear but the actual words are hard to make out, although the intent is self evident.

Note that if you click through to the video; it's safe for work... unless your co-workers speak German.

Although Trump is angry now, there may yet be a victory for him. Reader E.C.F. in Somerville, MA, wrote in to point out that on or before January 20, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) will have to resign, so she can take over as Governor of New Jersey. If Johnson can hold the House out of session for that long, then Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) won't be enough to push the discharge petition over the threshold to bring it to the floor. It takes 218 signatures, regardless of how many seats are vacant. The loss of a signatory would leave the total at 216, and Grijalva would only be the 217th signature. Eventually, the replacement for Sylvester Turner will be seated, and so too will the replacement for Sherrill, but that's certainly months away, which means even more time for Johnson to try to turn one of the Republican signatories to the petition, or to hope that some other Democrat dies.

State Results

There are a few state-level results we didn't note in our first post mortem; let's rectify that now. To start, the overlooked state-level result we heard most about was out of Georgia. We'll let reader D.F. in Norcross, GA explain:

As I'm watching returns from a huge night for Democrats, I wanted to bring your attention to another one that only a few people are paying much attention to.

Here in my home state of Georgia, we had a special election for two spots on the state's Public Service Commission (PSC). Yes, it's a wonky special election in an off year, a rarity for statewide elections here. Yes, the PSC is a somewhat obscure state office (for the record, the commission oversees and regulates a variety of services—primarily utilities). Yes, the turnout was lower than most statewide elections. Still, more than 1.4 million votes in the election is nothing to sneeze at. And, in a further sign of strength, Democrats Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard flipped two seats on the commission by ousting incumbent Republicans. Why is this a big deal, you may ask? Well, it's the first time a Democrat has won a seat on the PSC in 25 years and the Party's first time winning a statewide constitutional office since 2006.

The fact that term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) put a lot of political capital into this race and campaigned heavily for the two defeated Republican candidates could be yet another proverbial canary in the coal mine for the GOP in another important swing state.

Thanks to D.F. and to the other readers who wrote in about this result.

Meanwhile, reader L.R.H. in Oakland, CA, directed our attention to the results in Mississippi. There, the Democrats flipped three state Senate seats, which means the GOP no longer has a supermajority in the upper chamber. That makes it a bit harder for the majority party to do crazypants stuff, which the Mississippi legislature is kind of famous for. Mississippi GOP chairman Mike Hurst took the defeats well: "[This was] not totally unexpected, as Republicans were underdogs in these gerrymandered districts drawn by an unelected court pursuant to a misapplied federal statute that has been weaponized by interest groups." Gee, Mike, you're off your game. You forgot to mention socialism, communism, pizza-loving pedophiles, DEI, Black Lives Matter, Antifa, trans girls playing high school sports and Joe Biden's autopen.

Moving on, M.L. in West Hartford, CT, wrote in with a small addition to our previous report:
I think you buried the lede on Lt. Gov-elect Ghazala Hashmi (D-VA). She is not only the first Muslim and first Asian American to hold statewide office in Virginia, but she is the first Muslim woman to win statewide office in the entire United States. Perhaps in 4 years, she'll be the first Muslim woman elected as governor in one of these (somewhat) United States?

Her, or the first Muslim man to be elected to statewide office, namely AG Keith Ellison (DFL-MN).

And finally, a little context for the retention races in Pennsylvania, from M.D. in the Poconos, PA:

There were five statewide retention races. I guess, outside of Pennsylvania, few cared about the two appellate judges but voters gave all five overwhelming support. Yes, the three State Supreme Court Justices were the important races but we also had Superior Court Judge Alice Dubow, who won her race with the same 62% "Yes" vote as the Justices, and Commonwealth Court Judge Michael Wojcik, who received 57% Yes. The statewide PACs, as well as the Pennsylvania Democratic Party ads and mailers focused on the three Supreme Court Justices, but our county coordinated campaign decided to push the line to vote Yes on all the Statewide judges. In Monroe County, all five judges received between 62 and 63% Yes votes, so about the same as the statewide numbers.

I worked the phone at our local county Democratic office all day on Tuesday and most of the calls I fielded were people asking who the Democratic candidates were on their ballot. The retention question on the ballot doesn't list parties. Also, in Pennsylvania, county judges and school boards crossfile so can be on either party's line which confuses people constantly, and we had Republicans listed as Democrats so we had to do our best to inform voters who was who. One Trump nut managed to get elected to one of our School Boards, but for the most part people knew who were and weren't Democrats.

There was definitely a local blue wave, as we won all countywide races and won in some townships where in the past we couldn't find anyone to even run as a Democrat. Hopefully this carries over to next year and we can win back the 7th and 8th Congressional Districts, which both contain part of our county. And hopefully our very swingy county continues to become bluer.

We'll have a bunch of questions about this week's elections tomorrow, of course.

Next week, we will have items that cover mayoral and other local races that are interesting and/or instructive. We've already got notes from Cayuga County, NY; Trumbull, CT; Branford, CT; Tarrant County, TX, and a few other places; if readers have additional local results to bring to our attention, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com. We will also have an item on what's next, or what could be next, on the gerrymandering front, including a bit more on Maryland (our piece yesterday generated quite a few e-mails with additional information). (Z)

Into the Sunset: Nancy Pelosi, a Democratic Rock Star for Decades, Will Retire Next Year

Don't say she didn't warn you. A couple of weeks ago, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) hinted that the fight to pass Prop. 50 might be her last big rodeo. And yesterday, she made it official, releasing a 6-minute video framed as a letter to the people of San Francisco, whom she has represented in Congress for nearly 40 years.

Pelosi was cagey at the beginning of her career, and she remains cagey as the end draws near. Although she certainly laid the groundwork for this announcement, she went to great pains to keep the final decision a secret. Not only did she entrust only a few close advisers with the news, she also recorded two versions of the video linked above, one in which she said "I'm done" and another in which she said "I'm running again." Only she and that handful of close advisors knew which one was the real one.

If you do watch the video, Pelosi doesn't actually let the cat out of the bag until the last minute. Most of it is about the city and about the things that have been accomplished in the last 40 years, and not about her. Is that because her ego is in control enough that she does not need to make everything about Nancy Pelosi? Is it because it's more dramatic to wait until the end to reveal what the news is? Probably both, we'd say.

The reactions to the news, across the country, were exactly as you would expect. Democrats praised Pelosi and celebrated her career, with many of them using some version of the line "Those are big heels the Party will have to fill." Joe Biden was among those who were laudatory; there was some tension between him and Pelosi last year, inasmuch as she led the movement to oust him as the Democrats' nominee. However, they have either moved beyond that, or else he's a big enough man, and a classy enough person, that he concluded this was not the time for sour grapes.

Most Republicans kept quiet. They are not fans of hers, given her politics and the number of victories she scored as leader of the House Democrats. But they also realize that "retirement day" is not the time for cheap shots and petty personal attacks, and that indulging in such things is a bad look. Of course, the one Republican who doesn't feel that way (or doesn't know how bad it looks, or doesn't care how bad it looks) is Donald Trump. So, he blasted Pelosi:

I'm glad she's retiring. I think she did the country a great service by retiring. I think she was a tremendous liability for the country. I thought she was an evil woman who did a poor job, who cost the country a lot in damages and in reputation. I thought she was terrible.

Everybody knows that Trump and Pelosi hate each other, and they have frequently shot venom at each other in public. But just about any other person, no matter how much they hate Pelosi, would have stood back for 24 hours. It's truly remarkable that Trump has spent nearly 80 years in a cocoon of wealth, and culture, and education, and manners, and has not absorbed even the tiniest bit of class. Oh, well. You can't teach an old dog new tricks.

In the world of sports fandom, it is quite common to discuss and debate whether [STAR ATHLETE X] would have prospered so well if they had played their sport in some different era. For example, would Tom Brady have done as well in the 1970s and 1980s, when defenses could absolutely maul both pass catchers and quarterbacks? Would Babe Ruth have done as well in the 2020s, if he had to face relief pitchers and non-white players? Would Steph Curry have done as well in the 1960s, with no 3-point line?

One might do the same basic thing with Speakers of the House. For example, Sam Rayburn was legendary because he was great at navigating the fault lines between the factions (mostly, "Southerners" and "everyone else") that made up his large, Democratic majority. That skill would be rather less useful now, since the Democrats don't have a conservative Southern wing and a more liberal non-Southern wing anymore. Tip O'Neill was great at reaching across the aisle, and coming up with bipartisan bills that could get majority support. Also a less useful skill these days, since bipartisanship is either dead or on life support.

As a black-belt-level herder of cats, Pelosi was well suited to her era of narrow majorities and small margins of error, which is why she was able to steer some very important legislation through Congress, including Joe Biden's Build Back Better bill and, of course, the Affordable Care Act. Our guess is that her talents are more transferable to other eras than those of Rayburn or O'Neill, but that's just a guess. Of course, that assumes that male politicians of other eras would have taken a woman seriously, and many/most of them probably would not have.

Meanwhile, question for discussion: Is Nancy Pelosi the most powerful, and the most important, woman in the history of American politics? She certainly has a very strong case. Who would be the competition for those titles? Kamala Harris? Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)? Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)? Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)? Rep. Shirley Chisholm (D-NY)? Rep. Jeannette Rankin (R-MT)? Eleanor Roosevelt? Hillary Clinton? Secretary of Labor Frances Perkins? It's hard to think of too many people who are even in the conversation.

We have no doubt that it was a difficult choice for Pelosi to step down, since she loves, loves, loves to be in the arena. But she also saw what happened to her good friend Feinstein, and decided she didn't want to risk it. So, she left while she was on top, having played a significant role in shepherding Prop. 50 to a big victory. Undoubtedly, Pelosi will remain available to Democratic leaders as a wise elder, and her fingerprints will be visible on the next several elections, even if, after January 3, 2027, they are the fingerprints of Ms. Nancy Pelosi, rather than Rep. Nancy Pelosi. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Sign of the Times

For last week's theme, we gave out THREE hints. Hint the first: [W]e'll tell you that British readers, people who are familiar with the Harry Potter books and, especially, British readers who are familiar with the Harry Potter books have a big advantage."

Hint the second: "This week's headline theme produced an interesting result. There were some early responses that said "Ah! Easy one!" And then, there were virtually no others. [Y]ou would guess this theme was inspired by the item about the two religious leaders. It wasn't, though if they were trying to solve the puzzle, we suspect they would have been in that 'easy one!' cohort. After all, as we pointed out, they are both on Team Jesus."

Hint the third: "Knowing that many readers are fans of the film Chinatown, we tried to work 'Noah' into a headline. But it just didn't work."

And here is the solution, courtesy of reader M.H. in Ottawa, ON, Canada:

This took me way too long, but your Sunday hint helped immensely. The theme this week: phrases formed with "cross"!

The hint from Sunday, of course, refers to the character of Noah Cross. (Is this the first time that Electoral-Vote.com has featured a cross word puzzle?)

Indeed. Numerous Harry Potter scenes, including one of the key scenes at the end of the series, are set at Kings Cross Station. And of course the Pope and Patriarch know a thing or two about crosses. From this headline, it's "sign of the cross."

Here are the first 25 readers to get it right:

  1. M.W. in Altea, Spain
  2. T.K. in Half Moon Bay, St. Kitts
  3. G.W. in Avon, CT
  4. S.K. in Ardmore, PA
  5. R.S. in Milan, OH
  6. B.E. in Brooklyn, New York
  7. P.H. in Ft. Lauderdale, FL
  8. T.K. in Manchester, MO
  9. J.W. in Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
  10. J.N. in Zionsville, IN
  11. C.W. in Atlantic Beach, FL
  12. R.R. in Lancaster, PA
  13. M.S. in Canton, NY
  14. H.B. in Toronto, ON, Canada
  15. J.S. in Huntington Station, NY
  16. M.V. in Aurora, CO
  17. D.M. in Oakland, CA
  18. N.H. in London, England, UK
  19. H.B. in State College, PA
  20. M.R. in West Hartford, CT
  21. M.H. in Ottawa
  22. S.F. in San Marcos, CA
  23. D.R. in San Francisco, CA
  24. O.B. in Santa Monica, CA
  25. J.J. in Chicago, IL

When we give a third hint on Sunday, it's a dead giveaway that we are (well) short of 50 correct responses.

For this week's theme, it relies on one word per headline, and it's in the category In the News. For a hint, we'll say that we thought British readers would have an advantage last week, though it would seem they did not. This week, we think they will REALLY have an advantage.

If you have a guess, send it to comments@electoral-vote.com with subject line November 7 Headlines. (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: The Eyes are the Mirror of the Soul

Yesterday, the Trump administration did something that pretty much everyone should agree is a good thing. To wit, it announced that it's arranged for GLP-1 drugs (used for weight loss and diabetes) to be much more affordable. The drugs will be available for $150/month to everyone, and $50/month to some Medicare patients.

The problem with Trump is that—after 60 years of his business career, and 10+ years of his political career—you know you always, always, always have to ask: "OK, what's the catch?" Here are a handful of the questions that we have to ask, even if answers are not currently available:

A big part of our extreme caution here is—again—that Donald Trump is a living version of Lucy Van Pelt, and has pulled the football away at the last minute so many times, that everything has to be taken with more grains of salt than are in one of those Big Macs he chows down on every day.

There is also a particular cause for leeriness in this case. When the drugs do come available at the reduced price, they will be sold through a website. And what is the URL of that website? Why, it's www.trumprx.gov. At very least, that's self-aggrandizing and tacky. At worst, it suggests all kinds of potential shadiness. Is he expecting this name to be permanent, and thus to be some sort of monument to his greatness? Is he skimming right now? Or, if he's not skimming right now, will the .gov website eventually become a .com website, so he can retain control even after he's out of office? It's just never simple or easy with him.

What persuaded us to use this story for this space, however, was yet another indication that, in the end, he really doesn't care about the health of people not named Trump. In a bit of very bad luck, during the photo-op/press conference announcing the new initiative, one of the people who was there as background/scenery passed out. To his credit, Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Mehmet Oz leapt to the man's rescue and he's reportedly OK.

Other folks in the room, by contrast, did not exactly clothe themselves in glory. The relevant portion is only 20 seconds or so; you can see for yourself, if you wish:



There are two different camera angles floating around, but you have to watch this one to get the full picture. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy reminded everyone he doesn't give a damn about H or HS, and headed for the hills as soon as the man fell ill (and that is what REALLY pushed this item into the schadenfreude section). Meanwhile, Donald Trump stood there like a deer in the headlights, his apparent total lack of concern evident on his face, and in his eyes. His reaction was so wooden, so soulless, it's already become a meme, with tens of millions of shares:

Trump stares straight ahead, a bored look on his face

A talented method actor could spend weeks on that "scene" and not have so much success conveying a total lack of concern. Trump really ought to stage a revival of Albert Camus' The Stranger. It would probably be possible to talk him into it; after all, the main character gets to kill an Arab.

We really hope that the cheap medicine thing is for real, even if Trump's motives are not exactly pure. As to him, we simply can't ignore the evidence that he's fundamentally uncaring and rather cruel. The world got another reminder of that, in meme form, yesterday. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Carvd N Stone, Guardian of Good Vibes

If you had to identify the biggest problem with the news media, it might be a lack of local coverage. You know, too much expense for too little financial benefit to the outlet. And if you didn't pick that, you might pick the steady stream of negativity. Anger sells. Fear sells. Scandal sells. Many outlets seemingly decided, long ago, that the upbeat stuff isn't as marketable.

In Milwaukee, however, they have a remarkably successful exception to both trends. It is the website Carvd N Stone, which was founded by local entrepreneur Nyesha Stone, and which has now been going strong for 8 years. She concedes it was very difficult at the beginning, both in terms of money and in terms of getting people to take her seriously, but now says the site is on an even keel and is self-sustaining.

We can confirm that positive news is really, really tough to find out there. Sometimes, coming up with something for this feature takes, well, all of our newsgathering skills. And if Stone had not already set out enough of a challenge for herself, the primary focus of the site is, to use her own words: "positive representation of Black and Brown communities." And if that's STILL not challenging enough, the outlet has trained over 100 apprentice journalists and has handed out over $25,000 in scholarships.

Here's a list of some of the items that Carvd N Stone has run recently:

It's not for everyone, obviously. Indeed, we can think of entire political movements that would dismiss the whole thing as DEI, woke, etc. Oh well, those folks still have The Washington Post to fill their needs.

Have a good weekend, all! (Z)


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