Jul. 05 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 320   McCain 218  
Senate Dem 55   GOP 45  
House Dem 239   GOP 196  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
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strong Dem Strong Dem (194)
weak Dem Weak Dem (45)
barely Dem Barely Dem (81)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (23)
weak GOP Weak GOP (115)
strong GOP Strong GOP (80)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IN IA MT NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Landrieu Holds Small Lead in Re-Election Bid Quote of the Day
Lieberman Would Be Crushed Today Birthday Complicates Timing for McCain
Baucus Challenger Tries to Preempt Personal Attacks Obama, McCain Tied Among Catholics

News from the Votemaster

According to a Rasmussen poll, 41% of Americans consider themselves Democrats and 32% consider themselves Republicans. These numbers are important because candidates typically get something like 90% of the votes of people who identify with their party. By way of contrast, in 2004 on election day, Democrats led by just under 2%. In 2006 it was 6%. A gap of 9% might translate into 3% more votes for the Democrats nationally than in 2006, which was a good year for them. But these numbers are not carved in stone. They could change by election day.

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) is engaged to be married--for the fifth time. Florida's most eligible bachelor apparently likes getting engaged--just not getting married. But this time more is at stake--The Vice Presidency. He has been frequently named as a potential Veep for John McCain, but Republicans prefer their candidates to be happily married, so maybe this engagement is to increase his chances. Crist is young, good looking, and reasonably moderate, so he would help pull in independents. And with Crist on the ticket, Florida is in the bag. The downside of that is Obama would then abandon Florida completely, a very expensive media market, and concentrate on Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada instead.

Former North Carolina senator Jesse Helms died yesterday at 86. He served 30 years in the Senate fighting abortion, gay rights, and integration. He was a white racist and proud of it. Not everyone will miss him. When Tim Russert died last month, there were endless eulogies on TV, in the press, and on the Internet. For Helms, the announcement is everywhere along with some biographical details of his career, but not a lot of people are praising him as one of the great senators of all time. He's a bit of an embarrassment, even to the Republican Party. No doubt if Barack Obama wins the White House there will be comments about Jesse Helms rolling over in his grave.

Obama is considering giving his acceptance speech in the Denver Broncos' stadium, which holds 76,000 people. Such a move is not unprecedented. John Kennedy gave his acceptance speech in the L.A. Memorial Coliseum instead of at the convention hall. Obama clearly understands what the effect of of having 76,000 wildly cheering fans would be on the TV audience. Few rock stars could pull this off, let alone a politician.

No polls today. It will undoubtedly be a quiet weekend due to the holiday.

-- The Votemaster

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