Jul. 06 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 320   McCain 218  
Senate Dem 55   GOP 45  
House Dem 239   GOP 196  

Senate map and races
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strong Dem Strong Dem (194)
weak Dem Weak Dem (45)
barely Dem Barely Dem (81)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (23)
weak GOP Weak GOP (115)
strong GOP Strong GOP (80)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IN IA MT NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Landrieu Holds Small Lead in Re-Election Bid Quote of the Day
Lieberman Would Be Crushed Today Birthday Complicates Timing for McCain
Baucus Challenger Tries to Preempt Personal Attacks Obama, McCain Tied Among Catholics

News from the Votemaster

The AP has a good analysis of the presidential campaign. Basically, John McCain is not well organized yet and doesn't have a clear message of why people should vote for him other than he has a lot of experience. But if experience were golden, George H.W. Bush would have beaten Bill Clinton in 1992 and Bob Dole would have beaten him in 1996. McCain is also short of cash and has to spend a lot of time in red states raising money whereas Barack Obama is campaigning in swing states and even red states. He spent the Independence Day holiday in Montana, a state that has voted consistently Republican for President for years (although the governor and both senators are Democrats). McCain has been calling himself the underdog pf late, something a bit odd considering he is also touting his long government experience and his opponent's lack thereof. Still, summer is a sleepy time and McCain's new de facto campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, a Karl Rove pupil, has at least two months to turn things around before the campaign starts for real in September.

Rasmussen ran a poll asking voters if they were conservative, moderate, or liberal on fiscal issues and on social issues. The largest group, fiscal conservatives/social conservatives, amounted to 24% of the sample. They favored McCain 82% to 13%. The largest six categories are as follows (Rasmussen didn't report on the others).

Fiscal Issues Social Issues Group size Obama McCain
Conservative Conservative 24% 13% 82%
Moderate Moderate 20% 59% 30%
Moderate Liberal 15% 80% 13%
Conservative Moderate 10% 25% 67%
Moderate Conservative 10% 40% 51%
Liberal Liberal 9% 91% 6%

Probably the most startling result is how conservative the country has become. The conservative/conservative group is almost three times as large as the liberal/liberal group. In the 1960s, under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, few people identified as conservatives and the main thrust of government was on civil rights legislation and Johnson's ill-fated war on poverty. In the sense of changing the nation's mindset, the Reagan revolution has been a resounding success.

No polls at all today.

-- The Votemaster

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