Republicans Outraise Democrats     Permalink

The third quarter fundraising reports are now in and Republican House candidates have raised $104 million compared to the Democrats' $89 million. In the Senate, the top 18 races saw the Republicans bring in $60 million to the Democrats $40 million.

In addition, as a result of the recent Supreme Court ruling removing all restrictions on what outside groups can spend, there has been another $150 million raised, largely by Republican-oriented groups such as the Chamber of Commerce. Much of the Republicans' money has been coming from a small number of extremely wealthy donors who are free to give whatever change they can spare to outside groups. In the past their donations had to go through the official party committees. Such donations are (1) limited to a fairly low maximum per year and (2) public. Donations to outside groups are unlimited and secret.

Although most attention this year has been on Congress, there are also 37 governor's mansions up for grabs. This year they are exceptionally important because in most states the new governors get to approve or veto the legislatures' plans to gerrymander the new congressional districts. A Democratic governor can prevent a Republican legislature from running amok and vice versa. In this light, the fact that the Republican Governors Association raised $30 million in the third quarter while the Democratic Governors Association raised only $10 million is significant. In addition, this big advantage will improve the presidential prospects of RGA chairman Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), although they seem slim unless all the other candidates implode.

Dem Hopes in the South Rest on Turnout of Black Voters     Permalink

While many of the constituencies that President Obama rode to victory on in 2008 have lost much of their enthusiasm for him, there is one group that still regards him as a superhero: black voters. If they turn out in large numbers this year, some of the freshman House members elected in 2008 may survive. However, these members have to walk a fine line. If they praise him too much, it will help bring out blacks but may have a negative effect on whites. Also, some of the newbies are Blue Dogs who voted against Obama's major initiatives, such as health care. It may be hard to convince black voters to support a candidate who is viewed as Republican-lite by many blacks. Still, this may be their only hope, so the DNC is planning to spend 10 times as much money as it did in 2006 to get out the black vote. The pitch will be: "This election is a referendum on the first black President and you need to show your support for him." But that has to be done in a way that doesn't alienate white voters, a tricky task.

Foreclosures Becoming a Campaign Issue in Key States     Permalink

Three of five states with the most foreclosures, Nevada, California, and Florida, have competitive races for governor and senator, as well as some bitterly fought House races, and the foreclosures are becoming a political issue. Democratic candidates are generally in favor of a moratorium on foreclosures (because that would help homeowners in trouble) whereas Republicans generally oppose it (because that would help banks in trouble).

Top Republican Candidates Skip Palin Fundraiser     Permalink

Sarah Palin held a fundraiser in Anaheim, California, yesterday and behind her were Republican candidates for offices high and low. Well, make that medium and low. The top two Republican candidates in the state, Carly Fiorina, who is running for the Senate, and Meg Whitman,who is running for governor, didn't bother to show up. Could it be mere coincidence that in a state where the top two Republican candidates are women they didn't have time to show up for a speech by another woman--who just happens to be the most popular figure in the Republican Party at the moment?

No way. Both Fiorina and Whitman, are cold, calculating former CEOs of large companies. They clearly realize that being associated with Palin in any way will only be a drain on their campaigns as they go into the homestretch. They are desperately trying to convince independents in this blue state to vote for them, and both of them know that most independents take a dim view of Palin.

There are clear implications of this for 2012 though, should Palin decide to give up making $10 million a year and run for President. She is one of the most polarizing figures in American politics since Alabama's governor George Wallace. People either love her or hate her. There is no middle ground. If she runs and her main opponent is Mitt Romney (or someone else from the business wing of the Republican Party), it will tear the party apart.

Today's Polls: CO OR PA-15     Permalink

New Senate Polls

New House Polls

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