Sep. 19 absentee ballot for overseas voters

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Senate Dem 54   GOP 45   Ties 1
House Dem 222   GOP 181   Ties 32

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strong Dem Strong Dem (48)
weak Dem Weak Dem (2)
barely Dem Barely Dem (4)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (3)
weak GOP Weak GOP (4)
strong GOP Strong GOP (38)
strong Ind Strong Ind (0)
weak Ind Weak Ind (0)
barely Ind Barely Ind (0)
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Senate polls today: GA IN KS OH PA WI RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: AR IN ND PA PDA

PW logo Abercrombie Wins Nomination in Hawaii LePage Keeps Leads in Maine
Toomey Holds Edge in Pennsylvania Corbett Holds Small Lead in Pennsylvania
Bonus Quote of the Day Social Conservatives Pick Pence

News from the Votemaster            

Abercrombie Wins Hawaii Gubernatorial Primary     Permalink

Former representative Neil Abercrombie (D) won the Democratic gubernatorial primary yesterday over former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannenmann (D) in a hard fought battle although his margin was quite large: 59% to 38% for such a tough fight. Abercrombie will face Lt. Gov. James Aiona (R-HI) in the general election. Given how blue Hawaii is, Abercrombie is expected to win easily and succeed two-term governor Linda Lingle, who as a twice-divorced childless Republican Jewish woman is a bit of an anomaly in Hawaii.

Inouye Renominated and on Track to Becoming Longest-Serving Senator in History     Permalink

Also in Hawaii, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI), now 86, won renomination for his ninth term in the Senate. He is currently the longest serving member of the Senate, and as a member of the majority party, is President Pro Tempore of the Senate and thus third in the line of presidential succession, after the Vice President and Speaker of the House. Inouye has served longer in the Senate than anyone in history except the late Robert Byrd. If Inouye completes this term, he will become the longest-serving senator in history. Of course, he has to get reelected first, but that is pretty much a foregone conclusion given that his Republican opponent, state representative Cam Cavasso is a tea partier and this is Hawaii.

One interesting footnote to yesterday's primary is that the Secretary of State has published detailed statewide results and in the Democratic senatorial primary (Inouye vs. Andrew Woerner) there were 184 overvotes. That means that 184 people voted for both Inouye and Woerner. Given that Inouye has been in Congress since 1959, you'd think people would have made up their minds already whether they like him or not, but apparently not everyone. Or maybe it was due to malfunctioning voting machines again.

Pence Wins the Values Voters Straw Poll     Permalink

In an election that means absolutely nothing, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), won the annual straw poll at the Values Voters Summit in D.C. with 24% of the vote. The poll asks who do you want to win the presidency in 2012. Second was former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (22%). Following them were Mitt Romney (13%), Newt Gingrich (10%) and Sarah Palin (7%). The voters were about a third of the 2000 attendees at the Family Research Council's annual get together, most of whom are conservative political activists. One of the questions asked of the attendees is what their main concern was. The winning topic: stopping abortions. This is really quite a different crowd that the tea partiers, who are primarily concerned with taxes and reducing the federal deficit.

Palin's fifth-place finish means little because she didn't show up. She had bigger fish to fry: she was in Iowa speaking at the Iowa state Republican Party's annual fundraiser and meeting Iowa Republican activists--the people who will play an outsized role in the 2012 Iowa caucuses.

Democrats Confused     Permalink

Democratic leaders around the country understand that many tea party positions (e.g., phasing out social security and abolishing the Dept. of Education) are not popular, but they can't figure out how to package this message to the voters. The NY Times has an interesting piece on how they are struggling with the problem.

Lessons from the Midterms     Permalink

The elections are still 6 weeks away, but already people are drawing conclusions from them. Carl Cannon has drawn these conclusions so far:

  • All politics is local.
  • All politics is national.
  • Money talks.
  • Money doesn't mean a thing.
  • It's the economy, stupid.
  • We're tired of war.
  • We're tired of taxes.
  • Voting can be cathartic.

In other words, the voters are angry but there is hardly any pattern here and the anger is not focused. Every poll for months shows that the voters prefer Republicans to Democrats while at the same time they say that the Republicans are even worse than the Democrats. The voters are just lashing out and whoever is closest gets hit.

Today's Polls: GA IN KS OH PA WI VT-AL     Permalink

New Senate Polls

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Ind. I-pct Start End Pollster
Georgia Mike Thurmond 33% Johnny Isakson* 52%     Sep 15 Sep 15 Mason Dixon
Georgia Mike Thurmond 34% Johnny Isakson* 52%     Sep 16 Sep 16 Insider Advantage
Indiana Brad Ellsworth 34% Dan Coats 50%     Sep 14 Sep 15 Rasmussen
Kansas Lisa Johnston 24% Jerry Moran 66%     Sep 14 Sep 16 SurveyUSA
Ohio Lee Fisher 35% Rob Portman 55%     Sep 09 Sep 14 Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania Joe Sestak 36% Pat Toomey 40%     Sep 16 Sep 16 Critical Insights
Wisconsin Russ Feingold* 44% Ron Johnson 51%     Sep 15 Sep 15 Rasmussen

New House Polls

Cong. Distr. Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct I-pct Start End Pollster
VT-AL Peter Welch* 64% Paul Beaudry 30%     Sep 13 Sep 13 Rasmussen

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