Obama 297
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Ties 29
Romney 212
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Dem 47
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Ties 3
GOP 50
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  • Strongly Dem (177)
  • Likely Dem (64)
  • Barely Dem (56)
  • Exactly tied (29)
  • Barely GOP (21)
  • Likely GOP (39)
  • Strongly GOP (152)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: AL CT FL MI MO OH PA WI
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: IN IA NC
PW logo Rubio May Be Bumped Obama Holds Small National Lead
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day When Did the GOP Get So White?
Obama Responds to Romney Birther Joke Obama Holds Edge in Colorado

News from the Votemaster

Poll Shows Women See Romney as Out of Step on Their Health Issues

A new poll shows that by a 20-point margin women in swing states think Mitt Romney is out of step on women's health issues, including contraception and abortion. By a 13-point margin, they prefer Obama to Romney. When Romney's positions on these issues were read to them, Obama's lead grew to 22 points. Needless to say, Obama is going to do his best to make sure all women are familiar with Romney's positions. To counter a 22-point deficit among female voters, Romney would need more than a 22-point lead among male voters, since more women vote than men. No poll so far has shown him with a lead among men anywhere near this large.

Could North Dakota Senate Race Be Competitive?

When Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) announced his retirement, everyone assumed that the Republicans would pick up the seat easily. That assumptions is no longer true. Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND) may ultimately win, but is it not going to be easy at all. The Democrats tapped former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp and she has run an absolutely flawless campaign, surprising just about everyone. The polls show it to be a very close race. Roll Call rates it as a tossup.

Hundreds of Pages of Bain Capital Internal Documents Published Online

Gawker.com has published 950 pages of internal Bain Capital documents involving Mitt Romney's finances and investments. The information is extremely complex but shows that one of Romney's driving forces was (legal) tax avoidance at all costs through the use of exceedingly complex financial instruments (often in the Cayman Islands), use of the carried interest provision in the Internal Revenue Code, and other similar maneuvers. Even if all these things are legal, one can ask the question of whether a person who has apparently devoted much of his life to paying the absolute minimum tax possible by using every trick in the book is setting a good example for everyone else. The document dump also exposes the lengths to which the very wealthy will go to avoid paying taxes by using methods available only to the very wealthiest Americans. It also raises the question of whether the laws should be changed to prevent this kind of tax avoidance.

Hurricane Isaac Could Affect Security at Republican National Convention

If Hurricane Isaac hits Florida, it could impact the security at the Republican convention next week. In short, the plan is that law-enforcement officers from all over the state will be in Tampa to ensure law and order, especially if there are any demonstrations. However, if other cities in the state are hit by the hurricane, those cities may decide to keep their officers at home, rather than sending them to Tampa. If enough cities keep enough officers at home, Tampa may not have a sufficient number. Security within the convention hall itself is the job of the Secret Service, not Florida law enforcement, however.

Nevada Voters Have to Pick Somebody for President

Voters in Nevada have to choose a candidate for President. So what, you might think. Don't they have to do that in every state? Yes, but in Nevada, there was an option "None of the above" until a judge struck it down yesterday at the request of the Republican Party. The Republicans feel that voters who know Obama and don't like him but also don't like Romney might choose this option. In its absence, they think more voters will choose Romney. In previous elections, it has never gotten even 1% of the vote, but in a close election, 1% could matter. The state will appeal the decision.

Today's Presidential Polls

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
Alabama 36% 54%   Aug 13 Aug 16 Capital Survey
Connecticut 51% 43%   Aug 21 Aug 21 Rasmussen
Florida 49% 46%   Aug 15 Aug 21 Quinnipiac U.
Michigan 48% 42%   Aug 18 Aug 20 Glengariff Group
Missouri 42% 52%   Aug 20 Aug 20 PPP
Ohio 49% 46%   Aug 16 Aug 21 U. of Cincinnati
Ohio 50% 44%   Aug 15 Aug 21 Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania 49% 40%   Aug 20 Aug 22 Muhlenberg Coll.
Wisconsin 49% 47%   Aug 15 Aug 21 Quinnipiac U.

Today's Senate Polls

A new Rasmussen poll shows what the Republicans feared about Todd Akin's statements about rape and pregnancy: it has devastated his campaign. He was ahead by as much as 11 points in recent polls; now he is behind by 10 points. If this poll is confirmed by other ones, Akin may yet decide to drop out of the race. To do that, he would need a court order, but his opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) could contest his request, which would definitely take us into uncharted territory. Never before in Missouri history has a candidate tried to drop out and his opponent tried to keep him in.

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Florida Bill Nelson* 50% Connie McGillicuddy 41%     Aug 15 Aug 21 Quinnipiac U.
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* 48% Pete Hoekstra 40%     Aug 18 Aug 20 Glengariff Group
Missouri Claire McCaskill* 48% Todd Akin 38%     Aug 22 Aug 22 Rasmussen
New Mexico Martin Heinrich 48% Heather Wilson 41%     Aug 21 Aug 21 Rasmussen
Ohio Sherrod Brown* 48% Josh Mandel 41%     Aug 15 Aug 21 Quinnipiac U.
Ohio Sherrod Brown* 48% Josh Mandel 47%     Aug 16 Aug 21 U. of Cincinnati
Virginia Tim Kaine 46% George Allen 46%     Aug 16 Aug 19 PPP
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin 44% Tommy Thompson 50%     Aug 15 Aug 21 Quinnipiac U.

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Aug23 How Can the Republican Party Pressure Akin to Leave the Race?
Aug23 Republican Platform Committee Adopts Plank Banning All Abortions
Aug23 Hurricane Might Hit Tampa During Republican National Convention
Aug23 Both Parties Announce Convention Speakers
Aug23 Obama To Campaign in Swing States During Republican Convention
Aug22 Romney Calls on Akin to Drop Out of Missouri Senate Race
Aug22 Akin Incident Brings Up the Akin-Ryan Anti-Abortion Bill
Aug22 Six Theories about Why Akin Refuses to Drop Out
Aug22 New Study Shows That In-Person Voting Fraud Is Microscopic
Aug22 Biden to Campaign in Tampa During Republican Convention
Aug22 Voters Are Ignorant on Medicare Proposal
Aug21 Akin Vows to Stay in the Senate Race
Aug21 GOP Platform to Call for Constitutional Amendment Banning Abortion
Aug21 Romney Has Big Cash Advantage over Obama
Aug21 NRSC Outraises DSCC in July and Has More Cash on Hand
Aug21 Democratic Officials Suspended for Trying to Keep Polls Open Longer
Aug20 A Dozen Senate Seats Are in Play
Aug20 GOP Senate Nominee Says Legitimate Rape Victims Don't Get Pregnant
Aug20 2012 Will Be A Base Election
Aug20 Romney Has a Big To-Do List for the Next Week
Aug20 The End of WASP Rule?
Aug19 Both Parties Are Uneasy Coalitions of Warring Factions
Aug19 Florida Senate Race Also Tied to Medicare
Aug19 Obama Offers a Compromise on Romney's Taxes but Romney Says No
Aug19 House Members Running for Vice President is a Rarity
Aug18 Obama Is the Overwhelming Favorite of Nonvoters
Aug18 Federal Court Rules Florida Cannot Reduce Early Voting in Five Counties
Aug18 Ryan Releases Two Years of Tax Returns
Aug18 Romney's Name May Not Be on the Ballot in Washington State
Aug18 Ron Paul Will Hold a Big Party in Tampa
Aug17 Romney Says He Paid 13.6% or More for the Last 10 Years
Aug17 Romney Started a Trend: Thompson Won't Release Tax Returns Either
Aug17 Only 3-5% of Voters Are Truly Undecided
Aug17 Romney's Biggest (Political) Assets and Liabilities Listed
Aug17 Medicare Now More Important with Voters Than Obamacare
Aug17 Ryan's Presence on Ticket Will Restart Social Security Debate
Aug17 iPhone App Also Works on iPad
Aug16 Thousands of People Apply to Defer Deportation
Aug16 Romney Gets Bump from Picking Ryan
Aug16 Why Did Pennsylvania Judge Uphold Voter ID Law
Aug16 Romney Takes the Gloves Off
Aug16 Americans Hate Congress but Reelect the Bums Nevertheless
Aug15 Thompson Wins Wisconsin Senate Primary
Aug15 McMahon Wins Connecticut Senate Primary
Aug15 Pennsylvania Judge Upholds Voter ID Law
Aug15 Ryan Favorability Moves Up
Aug15 What Does Ryan Mean for Latinos, Blacks, and Women?
Aug15 Paul Ryan's Wife is No Ordinary Stay-at-Home Mom
Aug14 Two Key Republican Senate Primaries Today
Aug14 The Ryan Budget in a Nutshell