Michigan Too Close to Call     Permalink

The Michigan primary today could go a long way toward either (1) clarifying the Republican nomination or (2) muddying the Republican nomination. Five recent polls have put the contest between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum within the margin of error. Here are the data.

In essence it is a tie between Romney and Santorum, with Gingrich and Paul way behind. However, it is worth noting that Michigan voters have been going to the polls for several days now and Romney is ahead, so Santorum needs a big turnout today to win.

A Romney win will put him back on track as the front runner, even though almost 2/3 of the Republicans are expected to vote for someone else. His incredible luck is to have three opponents, all of whom refuse to quit, thus fragmenting his opposition. If Romney is utimately the nominee, each three of the others will complain that if only the other two had dropped out, he would have win.

A Santorum win will be devasting for Romney because the news for the entire week leading up to super Tuesday (March 6) will be about how Romney's goose is cooked. Also, a Santorum win in the state Romney grew up in will give Santorum real momentum going into super Tuesday, possibly enabling him to win a substantial number of the 10 states voting then.

So, in short, a Romney win in Michigan will mean the usual cycle of a challenger surging ahead of Romney followed by a massive negative ad campaign sinking the challenger worked again. A Santorum win will make guessing what happens next week impossible. Romney is expected to win today in Mormon-heavy Arizona easily so a win there will not count for much.

Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska     Permalink

Sources close to former Nebraska senator Bob Kerrey have indicated that he has changed his mind and will run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). If true, this good news for Democrats since absent Kerrey, this seat is as close to a 100% guarantee of a Republican pickup as you get in politics. The Democrats simply do not have any other plausible candidate in this very red state. Kerrey, a decorated Vietnam veteran, served one term as governor of the state and two terms as senator and remains popular. The Republicans do not yet have a candidate and a multiway primary is expected.

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