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PW logo Tonight's Primary Results Still Too Close to Call
Snowe Will Not Run Again Santorum Flips on Democrats Voting in GOP Primaries
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day Obama Takes the Gloves Off

News from the Votemaster

Michigan Too Close to Call     Permalink

The Michigan primary today could go a long way toward either (1) clarifying the Republican nomination or (2) muddying the Republican nomination. Five recent polls have put the contest between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum within the margin of error. Here are the data.

Pollster Romney Santorum Paul Gingrich
ARG 35 36 15 8
Mitchell Research 35 37 8 9
PPP 37 38 14 9
Rasmussen 38 36 11 10
We Ask America 37 33 18 13
Average 37 36 13 10

In essence it is a tie between Romney and Santorum, with Gingrich and Paul way behind. However, it is worth noting that Michigan voters have been going to the polls for several days now and Romney is ahead, so Santorum needs a big turnout today to win.

A Romney win will put him back on track as the front runner, even though almost 2/3 of the Republicans are expected to vote for someone else. His incredible luck is to have three opponents, all of whom refuse to quit, thus fragmenting his opposition. If Romney is utimately the nominee, each three of the others will complain that if only the other two had dropped out, he would have win.

A Santorum win will be devasting for Romney because the news for the entire week leading up to super Tuesday (March 6) will be about how Romney's goose is cooked. Also, a Santorum win in the state Romney grew up in will give Santorum real momentum going into super Tuesday, possibly enabling him to win a substantial number of the 10 states voting then.

So, in short, a Romney win in Michigan will mean the usual cycle of a challenger surging ahead of Romney followed by a massive negative ad campaign sinking the challenger worked again. A Santorum win will make guessing what happens next week impossible. Romney is expected to win today in Mormon-heavy Arizona easily so a win there will not count for much.

Kerrey May Run for the Senate in Nebraska     Permalink

Sources close to former Nebraska senator Bob Kerrey have indicated that he has changed his mind and will run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). If true, this good news for Democrats since absent Kerrey, this seat is as close to a 100% guarantee of a Republican pickup as you get in politics. The Democrats simply do not have any other plausible candidate in this very red state. Kerrey, a decorated Vietnam veteran, served one term as governor of the state and two terms as senator and remains popular. The Republicans do not yet have a candidate and a multiway primary is expected.

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-- The Votemaster

Previous headlines

Feb23 Romney Attacks, Santorum Defends, Nothing Much Changes
Feb23 Of Vaginas and Veeps
Feb21 Too Late for a White Knight
Feb21 Another Republican Debate Tomorrow
Feb17 Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan
Feb12 Romney Wins the CPAC Straw Poll
Feb12 Romney Edges Out Paul by 194 Votes in Maine
Feb12 Santorum Leading in Michigan and Nationwide
Feb08 Santorum Wins Big in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado
Feb05 Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses
Feb05 Republican Primary and Caucus Schedule
Feb04 Romney Expected to Win Big at Nevada Caucuses Today
Feb04 Economy is Improving
Feb01 Romney Wins Decisively in Florida
Jan31 Romney Set to Win Big in Florida
Jan31 Santorum Faces Easy Choice Tomorrow
Jan31 Prediction: Florida Will Win Today
Jan27 Romney Takes Off the Gloves in Final Florida Debate
Jan27 Romney Failed to List Foreign Investments on Legal Form
Jan25 Obama Lays Groundwork for a Populist Campaign in State-of-the-Union Speech
Jan24 Romney Releases 2010 Tax Return
Jan24 Role Reversal in the Debate: Romney Attacks, Gingrich Plays Defense
Jan24 Fred Thompson Endorses Newt Gingrich
Jan22 Gingrich Crushes Romney in South Carolina
Jan20 Perry Drops Out and Endorses Gingrich
Jan20 Gingrich Surging in South Carolina
Jan20 Gingrich's Second Wife Attacks Him
Jan20 Romney Loses His Win in Iowa
Jan20 Romney Reported to Have Millions of Dollars in the Cayman Islands
Jan20 The Final Four Take Off the Gloves in the Last Debate before the South Carolina Primary
Jan17 Hard-Hitting Debate in South Carolina Changes Nothing
Jan16 Huntsman Expected to Drop Out Today and Endorse Romney
Jan16 Why is the Republican Field So Weak?
Jan16 South Carolina Debate Tonight
Jan15 Social Conservatives Agree to Back Santorum
Jan13 Eleventh Commandment Repealed
Jan11 NH: Romney 39%, Paul 23%, Huntsman 17%, Gingrich 9%, Santorum 9%
Jan11 Charlie Cook: Redistricting is Politically Neutral
Jan10 Romney Leads Going into the New Hampshire Primary Today
Jan10 Gingrich Goes Negative in South Carolina

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