Obama 326
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Romney 212
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Dem 51
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Ties 3
GOP 46
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  • Strongly Dem (194)
  • Likely Dem (60)
  • Barely Dem (72)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (21)
  • Likely GOP (47)
  • Strongly GOP (144)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: (None)
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: IN IA NC
PW logo Exit Polls Say Ex-Ruling Party Wins in Mexico The Parallel Campaign
Bonus Quote of the Day Roberts Switched Vote to Uphold Health Care Law
Can Mitt Romney Pull a Bill Clinton? McConnell Says GOP Needs Just 51 Votes to Overturn Mandate

News from the Votemaster

Obama Gets a Boost from Supreme Court Ruling on the ACA

Two polls show President Obama getting a small bump from the Supreme Court ruling. A new Rasmussen poll shows Obama ahead of Romney 46% to 44% nationwide. A Newsweek poll released Friday showed Obama ahead 47% to 44%. Historically, bumps from news events like this one are short lived, though.

Billionaires Are Starting to Fund Down-Ticket Races

While there has been a lot of publicity about billionaires giving multimillion-dollar donations to presidential superPACs, under the radar they are also gearing up to fund races for governor, senator and other offices. In particular, gubernatorial races in swing states like New Hampshire, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are likely targets, not only to help Mitt Romney in these states, but also to help produce a good bench of future Republican presidential candidates. The Democrats cannot possibly match the billionaires' funding, which is going to lead to some very asymmetric races.

Was Roberts Sending a Dog Whistle to Congress: Save the Institution?

Many people find Chief Justice John Roberts' majority opinion on the ACA out of character for him. No doubt he would have preferred striking down the law, but he was also concerned a 5-4 majority along partisan lines could doom the Court's prestige and that was ultimately more important to him than this one law. But Dan Balz at the Washington Post speculates that maybe he was also sending a coded message to Congress saying: "For a democracy to work, sometimes you have to put aside your partisan agenda and do the right thing for the country."

The current approval rating for Congress is hovers around 10%. Here is a list of 10 things more popular than Congress.

  1. President Obama (46%)
  2. The Internal Revenue Service (40%)
  3. The airline industry (29%)
  4. Lawyers (29%)
  5. Richard Nixon at his lowest (24%)
  6. The banking industry (23%)
  7. The oil and gas industry (20%)
  8. BP during the Gulf of Mexico oil spill (16%)
  9. Paris Hilton (15%)
  10. America becoming a Communist nation (11%)

Is Mexico Leading the Way in Polling?

Political polling used to be done by having interviewers visit people at home and asking them questions face to face. Then during the 1950s, when everyone had a telephone, telephone interviews with random-digit dialing became the norm. Now that so many people have gotten rid of their landlines, some pollsters have experimented with Internet polling, but so far those attempts have been fairly limited and not very successful (e.g., Zogby tried Internet polling and gave up).

In Mexico, polling is still done the old-fashioned way: face to face. To deal with people who might be afraid to tell the interviewer their true feelings, some pollsters give the respondents a facsimile of the official ballot and ask them to put it in a sealed ballot box. With response rates in the U.S. now below 10%, maybe in-person polling might make a comeback.

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---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Jun30 Americans Evenly Split on Supreme Court Decision on ACA
Jun30 A Rarely Mentioned Objection to the ACA
Jun30 Red States May Try to Bargain on Medicaid
Jun30 Difference Between ACA and Raich Explained
Jun29 Supreme Court Upholds Affordable care Act
Jun28 The Moment of Truth Has Arrived
Jun27 Wendy Long Wins New York Republican Senatorial Primary
Jun27 John Roberts' Big Moment?
Jun27 Speculation about Romney's Veep Choices
Jun27 Tipping Point Page Changed
Jun27 New Data Pages Available
Jun26 Supreme Court Strikes Down Part of the Arizona Immigration Law
Jun26 Supreme Court Says States May Not Ban Corporate Money from Campaigns
Jun26 Primaries Today in Five States
Jun25 Key Supreme Court Rulings Expected this Week
Jun25 On Social Issues, Voters Trust Obama More than Romney
Jun25 Charlie Cook Does Not Expect Another Wave Election
Jun25 A New Partisan Divide: Old vs. Young
Jun23 Bain Capital's Firms Outsourced Jobs Overseas
Jun23 Wealthy Democrats Not Donating to SuperPACs
Jun23 Obama's Latino Strategy is Working
Jun23 Only 34% of Americans Believe Obama is a Christian
Jun22 Romney Reverses Course on Immigration in Speech to Latino Officials
Jun22 Romney Sees Path to Victory Running Through the Midwest
Jun21 LeMieux Formally Ends Florida Senate Run
Jun20 Supreme Court to Rule on Whether States Can Stop Corporate Campaign Donations
Jun20 Democrats to Push DISCLOSE Act
Jun20 Interesting Analysis of the Political Effects of the ACA Ruling
Jun20 Schumer Plays Nice with Wall Street
Jun19 Obama's Decision on Immigration Popular with Likely Voters
Jun19 Immigration Issue Could Affect Other Races
Jun19 Rubio Not Being Vetted for Veep
Jun18 Crisis Averted in Greece as Center-Right Party Wins Election
Jun18 Can Any President Govern?
Jun18 Child Propaganda Takes Off
Jun18 Interactive Chart Shows Unemployment Numbers
Jun17 Greek Vote Today Could Roil Financial Markets Worldwide
Jun17 What If the Supreme Court Strikes Down Just the Mandate?
Jun17 What If the Supreme Court Strikes Down Just the Mandate?
Jun16 Obama's Action on Immigration Opens Fissure within Republican Party
Jun16 Ohio Speeches by Obama and Romney Preview the Campaign Ahead
Jun16 Ginsburg Hints at Sharp Disagreements Ahead
Jun15 Campaigns Waiting Anxiously for Supreme Court
Jun14 Improvement to the Tipping-Point state Table
Jun14 Casino Owner Bets on Former Opponent
Jun14 Autopsy on the Arizona Special Election
Jun14 Majority Blame Bush for the Bad Economy
Jun13 Allen Wins the Republican Primary in Virginia
Jun13 Gifford's Aide Wins Her Seat
Jun13 Summers (R) and Dill (D) to Face Off in Maine but it Probably Doesn't Matter