The Veep Debate Is Tonight

Normally the vice-presidential debate is a sideshow, but this year's installment, which will take place tonight at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, is different. The unstated premise, of course, is that on account of COVID-19, either of the (elderly) presidential candidates could be dead by January 20th, so this time the vice presidency might be worth at least a bucket of cool Florida orange juice and probably much more. After all, Donald Trump just got out of the hospital but is not out of the woods, and Joe Biden is 77. So, more than ever, the focus will be on whether the vice-presidential candidates are ready to sit in the big chair on a moment's notice. Further, tonight's debate might be the last one of this cycle because the presidential candidates might not be able to agree on the format or on protection measures for their debate scheduled for next week (see below).

And speaking of protection measures, Mike Pence and Kamala Harris will stand 12 feet, 3 inches apart. Throughout the day Tuesday, there was ongoing wrangling over the addition of more protection in the form of plexiglass barriers around the candidates. Harris had no objection to the barriers, but Pence—desiring to look "strong" and to please the boss—pushed back hard against the idea. Consequently, it was announced late Tuesday afternoon that Harris would have a barrier and Pence would not. Thereafter, someone must have pointed out to the VP that while he might or might not project "strength" by going plexiglassless, he would definitely be projecting at least two other messages: (1) "I'm not very careful about COVID-19, despite spending a lot of time around people who have active cases of the disease," and (2) "I'm not interested in taking precautions that are meant, primarily, to protect others." In any event, late Tuesday night, Pence agreed to have a barrier as well.

Pence's cavalier attitude about, and haphazard approach to, COVID-19 is very Trumpy, of course. On the other hand, in contrast to Trump, Pence has been practicing with mock debates. Pam Bondi, the former Florida AG, has been playing Harris for him. Harris has been practicing with Pete Buttigieg in the role of Pence. At least he has the right accent: Both Buttigieg and Pence are Hoosiers.

Everyone expects this debate to be a lot less raucous than the first presidential debate, because: (1) neither of the vice presidential candidates likes to flout the rules and (2) the first debate was widely panned by almost everyone. No one wants a repeat of it, with the possible exception of the President.

The expectation is that Pence will hammer Biden and Harris as exponents of the radical left, which would be news to the supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), most of whom will vote for the ticket while firmly holding their noses. Undaunted, Pence will pretend Harris is actually a different woman of color: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and attack her for the Green New Deal and for being a radical leftist. Harris is expected to focus on COVID-19 and point out that Donald Trump botched the handling so badly that over 200,000 Americans died from it and the president himself ended up in the hospital with it. Pence won't be able to escape blame himself because he is head of the president's task force on the virus.

Harris has one disadvantage compared to Biden. Trump (foolishly) lowered the expectations for Biden so much that as long as the former VP didn't drool all over himself, he was going to be seen as the winner. In contrast, most people have heard that the former California AG is a skilled interrogator, so the bar for her will be much higher. On the other hand, she is good at it, so she might not disappoint.

The moderator will be USA Today's Washington Bureau chief Susan Page. She has covered the past 10 presidential elections and interviewed the past 9 presidents. However, in 2018 she hosted a taxpayer-funded "Girl's Night" at her home for the controversial Seema Verma, who is administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and is on the coronavirus task force headed by Pence. Among other things, in 2019, Verma approved $2 million in government money to go to Republican consultants to boost her image. In 2020, she spent another $5 million in government money to raise her profile. As a consequence of Verma's behavior and Page's connection to her, Page's neutrality will surely be watched closely. (V)

Biden is Running Ads--for Harris

The Biden campaign yesterday started running television, radio, and digital ads featuring only Kamala Harris, with an emphasis on how historic her candidacy is. If elected, she would be the first woman of Black or South Asian descent to serve in national office. The intention of the ads is to energize Black voters in all the battleground states and make sure they vote. Here is one of them:

Another ad emphasizes Biden's (strange) slogan of "Build Back Better." In it, Harris (alone), fully masked, talks about creating millions of jobs, bringing back supply chains, building on the Affordable Care Act, and giving caregivers the dignity, respect, and pay they deserve. To the best of our knowledge, the Trump campaign has not made any ads featuring only Mike Pence.

In the campaign generally, Harris has spent much, if not most, of her time talking to Black audiences, groups, and publications to make them aware of the historic nature of her candidacy. Black women are the Democrats' best demographic, but the campaign wants to make sure every eligible Black woman actually votes. If Black turnout in 2016 had equaled what it was in 2012, Hillary Clinton would now be seeking reelection. (V)

CNN Poll: Biden Leads by 16 Points

A new CNN/SSRS national poll has Joe Biden at 57% and Donald Trump 41% among likely voters. According to our staff mathematicians, that adds up to 98%, which means that pretty much everyone has decided already. This is the biggest lead Biden has had all year in a major poll. It was taken from last Thursday through Sunday, meaning that all of it was taken after the first debate, while part of it was before Trump's hospitalization and part of it after. If this holds in the end, it will be virtually impossible for Trump to win all the swing states he needs to win and very difficult for shenanigans (short of outright fraud) to tip the scales to Trump. Still, we'd like to see a few polls taken entirely after Trump's hospitalization before believing this is the new normal.

In terms of key policy issues, Biden leads on all of them. The issues tested include racial inequality (+26 points) the coronavirus (+21), health care (+20), Supreme Court nominations (+16), crime (+12), and even the economy (+2). In addition, 52% of Americans have a positive view of Biden vs. only 39% who have a positive view of Trump.

On character issues, Biden also leads on everything, including who would unite the country (+28), honesty (+25), cares about people like you (+20), can solve the country's problems (+16), and protect Americans (+12).

The biggest takeaway though is the gender gap (see below). Women favor Biden 66% to 32%, an unprecedented 34-point lead. Among men, Trump leads 49% to 47%. Among all whites Biden leads 51% to 47%; among people of color, Biden leads 72% to 25%. Trump's only strength is noncollege whites, where he is up 56% to 43%, but that demographic isn't big enough to save his bacon.

Among Democrats, 99% will vote for Biden but among Republicans, only 94% will vote for Trump. Independents favor Biden by 19 points. The sample had 3% more Democrats than the previous SSRS poll, but even subtracting 3 points from all of Biden's numbers above and adding 3 points to Trump's shows Biden far ahead of Trump. With only 4 weeks left before Election Day (and millions of people voting every day already), Trump needs to reset the narrative and fast.

SurveyUSA also came out with a new national poll. Its own data, however, make us pause. It was done before and after Trump's hospitalization. Overall, the data give Biden an 8-point lead, but among the respondents who answered the questions after Trump went to the hospital, Biden's lead jumped to 16 points. We think that it will take a few more days until we get a better fix on where we are. (V)

Four Million People Have Already Voted

In 2016, 75,000 people had voted four weeks before the election. Now it is more than 4 million—50 times as many. The voting has been driven by an expansion of early in-person voting, widespread use of absentee ballots, and record enthusiasm in both parties, with people eager to express their views on Donald Trump at the ballot box. Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, who runs the United States Elections Project, said that people cast their ballots when they have made up their minds, and many people made up their minds about Donald Trump long ago. McDonald expects turnout of 150 million voters, about 65% of all eligible voters. In 2016, 137 million votes were cast for president. Historically, large turnouts have tended to help the Democrats.

In some states early voting is especially strong. For example, in South Dakota, the 2020 early voting represents 23% of the total turnout in 2016. In Virginia it is 17% and in the battleground state of Wisconsin it is 15%. In Florida, 2.4 million Democrats have requested absentee ballots and 282,000 have returned them already while 1.7 million Republicans have requested ballots and 145,000 have returned them so far.

The early numbers come from 31 states, but more will begin early voting this week and more still next week. Only about half a dozen states do not have in-person early voting.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken last week showed that then 5% of Democrats and 2% of Republicans had already voted. The poll showed that 58% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans planned to vote early. This could lead to a so-called "red mirage," in which Trump appears to be ahead on Election Night, but falls behind in the following days as the absentee votes are tallied. (V)

If Trump Still Has COVID-19 Next Week, Biden Won't Debate Him

The cat is out of the bag. Joe Biden is preparing to either drop out of the second debate or force it to go virtual, something Trump hates. Yesterday Biden said that if Trump still has COVID-19 next week, he doesn't want a second debate, although he left open the possibility of a virtual debate, with the candidates in different rooms.

This is a smart move on Biden's part. Trump is way behind in the race now and needs a way to reset it. A great debate performance could help, so if there is no debate, Biden "wins." Also, Biden is 77 and in the high-risk group, so going in the same room with someone who has an active case of the disease would be foolish beyond belief. Using the disease as an excuse would be an ideal way to get out of debating without looking like a coward.

One problem is determining if Trump is still sick. His doctor, Sean Conley, has already demonstrated that he will do whatever Trump tells him to do, so if Trump says to Conley: "Announce that I am completely healthy," Conley will do that. Then what happens? Will Biden insist that an independent doctor who is not affiliated with either candidate or campaign examine Trump? Will Trump accept that? We may find out.

Another option would be a virtual debate, with the candidates in separate rooms. Trump hates that kind of setup to start with and would hate it even more in a debate. In the first debate, his entire strategy was to interrupt, insult, and heckle Biden. In a virtual debate where the moderator could turn off Trump's mic when it wasn't his turn, his whole strategy would collapse. Keep an eye on this story, we haven't heard the last of it yet. (V)

Stimulus Talks Are Over Until after the Election

Donald Trump put the final nail in the stimulus bill's coffin yesterday when he ordered Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to stop negotiating with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) about a new relief measure. This means there will be no bill before the election and very likely no bill at all if Trump is reelected. Trump said that if he is reelected there will be a bill, but if he didn't approve one when it could help him get reelected, the chances of him approving one when it doesn't matter any more are much smaller. Campaign staffers shook their heads in dismay at Trump's decision. Many people are desperate and were hoping for more aid. Now there won't be any and it is pretty clear whose fault it is.

The stock market reacted by sending the Dow Jones index to a close of minus 330 points, after it had been up over 300. This is not entirely surprising since the economy is not in good shape. The unemployment rate is 8.4% and millions of Americans are struggling to pay the rent and buy food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell issued a dire warning that absent another stimulus, the economic recovery would be weak and households and businesses would suffer. Sometimes it is hard to understand what Trump is up to. Ruling out an aid package that could help his reelection campaign seems like a very strange thing to do. Maybe it's the dexamethasone (see below).

It is not clear what made Trump change his mind. Only a few days ago he seemed to be encouraging Mnuchin to make a deal. Maybe this was to teach Pelosi a lesson that if she doesn't give the Republicans everything they want, she will get nothing. On the other hand, half a dozen vulnerable Republican senators are not going to be happy about this since their constituents are hurting and their Democratic challengers are going to blame them for not getting anything done. (V)

What If the Voters Elect a Dead Man?

Prof. Richard Hasen of the University of California at Irvine, one of the country's leading experts on election law, is worried that the voters might pick a dead man on Election Day. Voters have elected dead people before, including senators, representatives, mayors, state senators, and state representatives. But electing a dead president would be a first. Throwing a state Senate district into turmoil is one thing; throwing the entire country into turmoil and having a split 6-3 or 5-4 decision by the Supreme Court deciding what to do would tear the country apart. So would having Congress come to one decision and the Supreme Court come to a different one.

Hasen's worry is that either Donald Trump or Joe Biden dies before or after the election and there is no agreement about what to do next. If the winner of the election collapses and dies 15 seconds after reciting the oath of office, there is no ambiguity: The vice-president, who is actually sworn in first just in case this sort of thing should happen, immediately takes the presidential oath and becomes president. What Hasen is worried about is the winner dying either before the election, before the electors vote, or before the inauguration.

More specifically, what he wants is for states to pass laws right now unambiguously stating that votes for a candidate who dies before the election count as votes for the party's replacement and that presidential electors who haven't voted yet must vote for the replacement.

What he is afraid of is a situation where, for example, Donald Trump drops out for health reasons just before the election or dies just after it and the electoral votes end up being divided among Trump, Mike Pence, and Biden, with no one getting 270 and the election going to the House. The same problem would occur if Biden drops out due to illness or dies. What could happen is that one party wins the election but the House picks someone from the other party. Changes to state law could make it clear that a vote for a Republican counts for any Republican and a vote for a Democrat counts for any Democrat. This would eliminate the possibility that one party's combined candidates get 270 electoral votes but no individual candidate gets 270, throwing the election into the House. It would also avoid a lot of lawsuits, with the possibility that the Supreme Court ends up picking the winner. Do not hold your breath waiting for the state legislatures to take Hasen's advice, however. As you may have heard, there is one party right now whose entire presidential strategy is "create chaos." (V)

Funny Feelings about 2020

Tim Alberta is Politico's star reporter and is as plugged into what's going on politically as anyone out there. He spends a lot of time on the ground talking to voters but also knows as many insiders as Maggie Haberman or Mike Allen. Anything he writes should be taken seriously, He just wrote a long piece in which he talks about four funny feelings he has. Here is a summary.

• Trump Fatigue Is Real: People are tired of Trump. Everything is about him, all day long. They feel trapped in a reality TV program and want to change the channel but they can't. This even holds for his supporters. Trump's advisers understand that the less he is in the news, the better it is for him, actually. But now he completely dominates the news. In the past 2 weeks alone, we had his taxes, the debate, and then his getting COVID-19. People have just had enough. Some may even resent that he had an opportunity to reset the discussion and completely blew it by having his doctor try to mislead the country and then going joyriding, thus endangering the lives of his Secret Service bodyguards.
  
  
• There Is a Silent Majority Out There: But it is not middle-aged Trump supporters. They are as vocal as hell. So are his opponents. The silent majority this time might be Gen Xers and older millennials, especially college-educated voters 28 to 42. They are not ideological and don't consume a lot of political news. They don't have a great voting record. But this time a lot of them might vote because Trump annoys them. They have busy lives and certainly have no idea what is in the Democrats' platform (the Republicans don't actually have one, other than to say the party supports Trump). What they know is that he irritates them to no end. He might have entertained them at first, but it's time for a new act.
  
  
• Democrats Will Regret Betting the Farm on Absentee Ballots: Done right, absentee ballots are fine and dandy. If they are delivered on time, that is, which is by no means certain. What is certain is that hundreds of thousands will be disqualified because the signatures don't match, the secrecy envelope or sleeve was missing, the outer envelope had stray markings on it, it wasn't notarized where required, the witness(es) didn't sign where required, and many other things. In a few states (mostly blue ones), when a ballot is rejected, the voter is given a chance to "cure" it, but in many states it goes directly into the shredder, not the scanner. One estimate based on what happened in the primary is that 100,000 absentee ballots in Pennsylvania will be rejected. Note that Trump's margin of victory there in 2016 was 44,000 votes. Democrats need to stop talking about absentee voting and start talking about voting early in-person.
  
  
• The Gender Gap Will Rival the Grand Canyon: Trump seems to have forgotten that a bit over 50% of the voters are female and they can't stand him. They really loathe him. Roughly breaking even with men and losing women by 20, 30, or 40 points isn't going to do the job for him. His advisers keep telling him this, but he is focused like a laser on working-class white men. In 2016, he won 44% of college-educated white women. His numbers among that demographic have collapsed entirely now. Trying to scare them with stories about Black marauders burning down their suburbs just makes them very angry. Polls showing Texas, Ohio, and Georgia being very close are largely due to the women. And nothing the President can do can change his standing among women now. Pro tip: ramming through a Supreme Court justice hellbent on first crippling and eventually overruling Roe v. Wade isn't going to do it.
  

Three of these hurt Trump and only one of them (rejected absentee ballots) helps him. If the Democrats can change their message fast enough to "vote in-person early," then all four of them will work against him. That's a big "if," though. (V)

Dexamethasone Comes with Serious Risks

On Sunday, Donald Trump was treated with a powerful steroid, dexamethasone. This was unusual because it is rarely given so quickly after a diagnosis of COVID-19 and it is almost never given to patients with mild symptoms.

Experts say that the drug can have serious side effects. These include blood clots, blurred vision, mood swings, and psychotic episodes. It is not known if Trump has experienced any of these and it is unlikely he would admit it if he did. His doctor Sean Conley, the latest in a series of medical Baghdad Bobs to serve as presidential physician, is no better in terms of telling the truth.

After Trump left the hospital, he said he was "feeling really good!" and better than he felt two decades ago. This is not surprising, since a well-documented effect of dexamethasone is a feeling of euphoria. Peter Bach, a top official at the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, said: "Having taken this myself, for a herniated disc, I felt like a million bucks. But actually, I was barely able to move." In other words, Trump's feeling good when leaving the hospital is a normal side effect of dexamethasone, but it could easily mask a serious underlying condition.

As of today, we are largely left to guess what Trump's real condition is and whether he is suffering from any side effects of the drugs he has taken. Some COVID-19 patients take a turn for the worse 7-10 days after their diagnosis. In Trump's case, that could be sometime this week, but even that is not sure since the date of Trump's initial diagnosis is murky. (V)

Miller Is the Latest White House Staffer to Test Positive

Another day, another key White House insider with a positive COVID-19 diagnosis. On Tuesday, it was senior adviser Stephen Miller, who announced in a statement that "Today, I tested positive for COVID-19 and am in quarantine." He also noted that he's been self-isolating for the last five days, which implies that the White House knew it had a problem on its hands Wednesday night or Thursday morning. As a reminder, Donald Trump continued to hold fundraisers and other maskless events through Thursday night.

Given that Miller is one of the most unpopular members of the administration, and that he was the architect of the harsh anti-immigration policies that put children in cages, this news will undoubtedly be met with many observations about how karma works. Politically, meanwhile, the more key staffers who end up ill, the worse it looks for the President. And if any should be hospitalized, or should die, then it will get really ugly for him. Unfortunately, the pressure on them to avoid the the bad optics of being hospitalized could end up increasing the chances of dying. (Z)

Trump's Tax Returns Indicate a Hair-Raising Crime

The New York Times' report on Donald Trump's taxes show that Trump took tax deductions totaling $70,000 for haircuts. As people are starting to dig deeper into his returns, this deduction stood out like a bad combover. Why? Well, to start, in 2011 the U.S. Tax Court ruled in the case of a news anchor on a television station in Ohio that even on-air personnel may not deduct hair-care expenses, despite their employer requiring on-air personnel to look good. Based on that ruling, and also a similar one in 1980, it is clear that such a deduction is not allowed.

But it gets worse. Typically contracts with television stars state that the stars are expected to have outside personnel handle their hair and makeup. The star pays them and is then reimbursed by the network. This is to get around rules requiring the network to use union members. A star of Trump's magnitude would certainly have a clause like that in his contract. That means Trump was almost certainly reimbursed for hair-management costs and he deducted it anyway. Deducting even a legitimate business cost for which you have been reimbursed is a federal crime. Deducting a personal expense for which you have been reimbursed is even worse. (V)

Looks Like It Wasn't Just Texts

Cal Cunningham, whose challenge of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is very important to Democrats' hopes of retaking the Senate, is in even hotter water than reported. Over the weekend, the news broke that the would-be senator engaged in some extramarital sexting with a PR strategist named Arlene Guzman Todd. On Tuesday, Todd said it was not just sexting, and that she and Cunningham had been "intimate." Todd also claimed that there is a third party who was privy to the whole thing, though she was not specific as to exactly what that means. Hopefully the third party wasn't Jerry Falwell Jr.

Before this scandal broke, Cunningham had an average lead of about 6 points on Tillis. We supposed, on Monday, that some ill-advised texts would not be enough to wipe that out. But now that it looks like it wasn't just Cunningham's phone that was involved? It doesn't take many defections to sink a 6-point lead. And that is before we consider the fact that roughly 10% of voters were undecided. This kind of thing is exactly the sort of late-breaking news that tends to affect late-voter behavior, which is surely why it just so happens to be leaking right now. In short, Democratic oppo researchers better find a yearbook photo of Tillis in blackface or Klan robes pronto, or this seat is likely to slip away. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

We have a mixed bag here on Florida and North Carolina, but at least Pennsylvania is consistent. The thing to remember is that polls like these have a margin of error of about ±4 points, so anything in white is a statistical tie. (V)

State	Biden	Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	46%	50%	Sep 25	Oct 04	Alaska Survey Research
Arizona	46%	45%	Sep 28	Oct 05	High Ground Inc.
Florida	45%	45%	Oct 01	Oct 04	Suffolk U.
Florida	51%	45%	Oct 01	Oct 04	U. of North Florida
Maine	51%	40%	Sep 25	Oct 04	Critical Insights
Michigan	51%	43%	Sep 29	Oct 06	Ipsos
North Carolina	47%	47%	Sep 29	Oct 06	Ipsos
North Carolina	50%	47%	Oct 02	Oct 04	East Carolina U.
New Hampshire	53%	44%	Sep 25	Sep 28	ARG
New Mexico	53%	39%	Sep 30	Oct 01	PPP
Pennsylvania	50%	45%	Oct 04	Oct 05	Emerson Coll.
Pennsylvania	54%	43%	Sep 30	Oct 04	Monmouth U.

Today's Senate Polls

The Maine poll is very suspicious, but it is probably just noise. Gideon has led all year. The North Carolina polls are too early to see how much damage Cunningham has sustained. No doubt multiple pollsters are already in the field running new ones. (V)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Maine	Sara Gideon	44%	Susan Collins*	43%	Sep 25	Oct 04	Critical Insights
Michigan	Gary Peters*	50%	John James	43%	Sep 29	Oct 06	Ipsos
North Carolina	Cal Cunningham	46%	Thom Tillis*	47%	Oct 02	Oct 04	East Carolina U.
North Carolina	Cal Cunningham	47%	Thom Tillis*	42%	Sep 29	Oct 06	Ipsos
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen*	56%	Corky Messner	40%	Sep 25	Sep 28	ARG

* Denotes incumbent

---

If you wish to contact us, please use one of these addresses. For the first two, please include your initials and city.

• questions@electoral-vote.com    For questions about politics, civics, history, etc. to be answered on a Saturday
• comments@electoral-vote.com   For "letters to the editor" for possible publication on a Sunday
• corrections@electoral-vote.com To tell us about typos or factual errors we should fix
• items@electoral-vote.com            For general suggestions, ideas, etc.

To download a poster about the site to hang up, please click here.

---

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster and Zenger