Biden 356
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Trump 182
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Dem 51
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GOP 48
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Florida Shatters Opening Day Record for Early Voting
Debate Commission Adopts Rule to Mute Microphones
Justices Allow Extension for Pennsylvania Ballots
Anthony Weiner Talks Past and Future

The State of the Race with 2 Weeks to Go

Election Day is 2 weeks from tomorrow, but 28 million votes have already been cast. The real state of the race can best be seen from our tipping-point page. Here is the middle part of the page, where all the action is:

State EVs Biden Trump Lead Biden EVs Trump EVs
North Carolina

Assuming the polls are correct, Joe Biden's easiest path to 270 EVs is to win all the states down to and including the hand symbol in the "Biden EVs" column. This means winning all of Hillary Clinton's states and the three "Midwest" states she lost. He currently has leads of 6-8% in all three. Actually, he doesn't need all of Clinton's states; if he can reclaim the three lost "Midwest" states, he can eke out a victory (272-266) without Nevada, even if he loses the two contested EVs in Nebraska and Maine. In that scenario, he can also afford to lose Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, and Georgia, all of which he is currently leading.

For Donald Trump's easiest path to 270, read from the bottom up. He needs to win Texas and Ohio, where he is currently leading. He also needs Georgia, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, all of which are currently leaning blue. Of course, if he can pick up the other two "Midwest" states, that would do the job as well, but he is further behind there at the moment. It looks like Pennsylvania is the keystone state. Of course, if you were paying attention in 6th grade social studies class, you already knew that. (V)

The Coronavirus Is Surging in Battleground States

The coronavirus is spreading rapidly again. On Friday, the daily number of new cases nationally passed 70,000 for the first time since July. Eighteen states saw more cases last week than in any other week. Here is a graph of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. over time. The blue curve is a backward-looking 7-day running mean. However, when cases are rapidly rising, this gives a too-optimistic view of where we are headed. The red line connects the peaks of the past 3 weeks and projects them out to the future. We could be approaching 100,000 new cases a day nationally on Election Day.

COVID-19 cases over time

In particular, it is climbing rapidly in some of the key battleground states, including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin. The top two states in new cases are now Texas and Florida, almost tied at 4,000 new cases a day. This surge of new cases could affect the election in a number of ways.

One of these is that poll workers, who are predominantly older, could get sick and not show up, or else not get sick and still be afraid to show up. As a consequence, with fewer poll workers on the job, it could take longer to check voters in and thus greatly increase the length of the lines. In some cases, it could even force polling places to close. In states where voters must go to a specific precinct, closing precincts will cause chaos. But even in states where voters can vote anywhere in their county, it will cause confusion as voters hunt for an open precinct. In Wisconsin, Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) said he would call up the National Guard to staff polling places on Election Day, but most other states haven't done this. A shortage of poll workers also affects early voting.

The other problem is that voters may read and hear about the virus making a comeback and may decide not to risk it and thus not vote. Requesting and mailing in an absentee ballot just 2 weeks before the election is probably not really feasible anymore due to the "speed" of the mail. To the extent that large numbers of Democrats have already voted by mail, with Republicans planning to show up on Election Day, a resurgent virus hurts the Republicans more than it hurts the Democrats.

It is essential for the Republicans to get their voters to the polls between now and Nov. 3 to counter all the votes the Democrats have already banked. According to University of Florida Prof. Michael McDonald, who is tallying the early voting, more than 29.5 million votes have already been cast, as mentioned above. Some states don't require voters to register by party, or else don't track ballots by party ID, but among states where the partisan lean of the absentee ballots is known, 7.2 million were cast by Democrats, 3.4 million absentee ballots were cast by Republicans, and 2.7 million were cast by independents. Among the states where the partisan lean of in-person ballots is known, 670,000 were cast by Democrats, 510,000 by Republicans, and 318,000 by independents. Obviously, that is a far smaller gap than the more than 2-to-1 advantage the Blue Team has in terms of mail-in ballots. (V)

Biden Is Swamping Trump on the Airwaves

Joe Biden's campaign is flush with money, having raised over $700 million in August and September. He is spending like a million drunken sailors in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, and to a lesser extent in Ohio and Iowa, largely on television ads. In the three key "Midwest" states, he dropped a cool $53 million over the past month (compared to Trump's $17 million). Most of the ads attack Trump for his bungling of the coronavirus. The Biden campaign has quite a variety of ads in its repertoire, so viewers don't get angry seeing the same ad over and over. In a single week in Pennsylvania, for example, they had 38 different ads up. On some stations, Biden is running 10 ads per hour. There is hardly any room left for actual programming.

Trump's ad campaign is being limited by how much money it has. It recently cut back on ads in Ohio and Iowa, even though they are definitely swing states now, and until this week was basically dark in Michigan and Wisconsin. Where Trump is spending money, however, is the states of Arizona and Georgia. These are traditionally red states and the fact that he is spending most of his money defending states that ought to be his for free says a lot. Georgia is the only state in which Trump has spent more than Biden. Strategists from both parties note that when campaigns are being bitterly fought on turf that naturally "belongs" to one of the parties, the party playing defense is in trouble. The state where the most money has been spent is Florida, with Biden spending $74 million and Trump spending $53 million but Florida is always a swing state and thus neutral territory.

Because Trump has less money, his campaign is spending it more carefully. For example, in North Carolina, Trump is on the Weather Channel, which is popular with farmers in rural areas. He is also on evangelical and conservative radio stations, which are cheap. Biden can afford to advertise in places like Nevada, New Hampshire, and Maine, which probably is more of a luxury than a necessity. Biden is also spending about 15% of his advertising budget on national ads, which reach from Oregon to Alabama and up to Maine, none of which are considered swing states. But given how many states Biden is competitive in, advertising nationally can be cheaper than running ads specific to each of the states he is targeting. These ads also reach states like Texas, which are probably not worth specifically targeting due to the high cost and low chance of success. Still, being on the air a little in Texas is better than not being on the air in Texas. Biden has so much money that he has ads on 32 networks, including Animal Planet, the DIY network, and the History Channel.

On the other hand, Trump is beating Biden on Facebook and YouTube, where he has spent $174 million to Biden's $141 million. (V)

Court Blocks Late-Arriving Ballots in Michigan

The courts have been fairly consistent about blocking extensions that would allow late-arriving ballots to be counted, even during a pandemic. The main argument is that the state legislatures have the power to set the election rules, not judges. If a state legislature wants to extend the deadline for absentee ballots, it is free to do so, but that is clearly a legislative power and not a judicial one.

The latest state where this is playing out is Michigan. A judge there issued an order instructing election officials to count ballots arriving up to 2 weeks after Election Day. Now the Michigan Court of Appeals has said: "Nope. No can do." Ballots arriving after Election Day go into the shredder, no matter when they were postmarked. If a ballot was mailed 3 weeks before Election Day but the USPS delayed it for 3½ weeks, well, tough luck. The voter could have mailed it 4 weeks before Election Day. All three judges who made the ruling were appointed by former governor Rick Snyder (R). Similar appeals court decisions have already played out in Wisconsin and Indiana.

Another part of the lower court's decision that was overruled by the appeals court is the part that allowed a non-family member to deliver a ballot to the elections office if the voter is unable to do so. The lower court recognized that an elderly disabled voter may have only a limited number of family members who could possibly deliver their ballot to the office and they could be sick with COVID-19 or in quarantine, so the judge approved using nonfamily members as couriers. The appeals court struck this down. So far there is no word on a further appeal. (V)

Trump-Oriented Printing Company Delays Shipping Ballots to Ohio and Pennsylvania

A number of counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania contracted with Midwest Direct, a Cleveland printing and mailing company, to print and mail absentee ballots to voters. They were supposed to be sent out last week. They weren't. Here is a photo of the company's plant:

Printing plant flying Trump flag

If you think that the flag flying just below the U.S. flag is a Trump flag, congratulations on your visual acuity. It is. When asked about this, owner Richard Gebbie said, of he and his brother James: "We fly a flag because my brother and I own the company and we support President Trump." Election security experts don't think there is any way for the Gebbies to tamper with the ballots, but delaying them so that they arrive too late to be counted (see above) is another story. They are already 10 days late. The Gebbies have donated to Republicans in recent years, including Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) and Ohio AG Dave Yost (R), so they are probably safe.

LaRose noted the Gebbies' failure and told counties to print their own ballots or deliver a contingency plan. With 2 weeks to go, that is not something every county is going to be able to do. If a voter gets a ballot a couple of days before Election Day, he or she can bring it to the elections office and have it still be counted, but many voters may have to drive half an hour or more to get there.

The Ohio counties affected include Summit County, which includes Akron, and Lucas County, which includes Toledo. These are urban and suburban counties. They are two of only eight Ohio counties that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016. (V)

Will Rejected Absentee Ballots Be the New Hanging Chads?

The 2000 presidential election in Florida can be summarized by this iconic photo shot by AP photographer Alan Diaz:

Florida election judge examining ballot in 2000

In the photo, a Florida election judge is examining a punched card ballot to try to determine whether the voter intended to vote for Al Gore or George W. Bush. The problem was that the voting machines that punched the holes were old and dull and sometimes failed to punch all the way through, leading to hanging chads and so-called pregnant chads. Bush won the state by 537 votes out of 6 million cast. The 2018 Senate race wasn't that close, but still, Rick Scott beat Bill Nelson by only 10,033 votes out of 8.2 million cast.

Florida 2000 wasn't the only time there was hand-to-hand combat over individual ballots. The 2008 Minnesota Senate election between Norm Coleman (R) and Al Franken (D) was ultimately decided by 312 votes in favor of Franken, a difference of 0.01%. Individual ballots were fought over one by one, including these:

Minnesota 2008 Senate ballots

One worry hanging over the 2020 election in potentially close states is whether absentee ballots rejected due to signature (or other) problems will be the new hanging chads (Florida 2000) or botched ballots (Minnesota 2008). If Florida is a cliffhanger again—as it has often been in the past—there could be battles over hundreds or thousands of individual ballots.

So far, the state has mailed out almost 6 million absentee ballots and 2 million have come back, of which 11,637 (0.56%) have been rejected. University of Florida election expert Dan Smith said that this is just the tip of the iceberg.

The most common reason for a ballot being rejected is that it arrives too late. Generally, ballots arriving before the polls close on Election Day are accepted and ballots arriving later are not. There have been numerous court cases about this already and the courts seem inclined to say that whatever state law says is binding and may not be overruled by judges (see above). At least that is fairly unambiguous. Polls close at 7 p.m. in Florida so ballots arriving at 7:01 p.m. or later go right to shredding and then (hopefully) to paper recycling.

The second most common reason for rejection—and this is where the battles will be fought—is the signature. Sometimes voters neglect to sign the envelope. Also, there can be mismatches due to name changes (e.g., due to marriage or divorce). In principle, voters are supposed to be notified of a problem and they have until Nov. 5 to "cure" the problem. But what if the state fails to notify the voter? Whose fault is that?

A second source of mismatches is a signature that has evolved over time. For example, if Ellen P. Jones still signs as Ellen P. Jones, but now has Parkinson's disease or has recently injured her hand, the signature may look different from the one on the voter registration form she filled out in 1970. Whether the signature is the same as on the form is a judgment call and even nonpartisan handwriting experts could argue about it—and certainly partisan ones could.

Smith noted that rejection rates for Black, Latino, and younger voters are much higher than for white voters and older voters. Younger voters' signatures may have changed since they preregistered at 16. For Latinos, cultural aspects could play a role, including the use of apostrophes, hyphens, and diacritical marks in signatures that could cause problems.

There is also a large variance over Florida's 67 counties, suggesting that different standards and procedures are used in different counties, something the Supreme Court is likely to frown upon if someone asks its opinion in late November. Well, unless Donald Trump wins the state, in which case their finding may be "Vive la différence!"

Florida law says that a three-person canvassing board has the final say on every ballot. However, in 46 counties, the real work is done early in the process. There, election workers feed the envelopes into a high-speed scanner that compares the signatures to the ones on file. So it is a computer algorithm that makes the initial call. In smaller counties, the comparisons are done by the staff manually. These workers have had at most 4 hours training on signature recognition and are hardly experts. Also, with millions of ballots coming in, all of them are under tremendous time pressure.

When there is a problem, some counties send the voter a letter asking for confirmation of the signature, but other counties may call the voter or handle it differently. Different counties have different rules about how vigorously they pursue the voters. Is one letter enough? Are two phone calls, both at 3 p.m. on consecutive weekdays, enough? Also, counties differ on how to handle borderline cases. Case law suggests that unless there is clearly fraud, ballots should be accepted. That's the theory, but on the ground, if some manager tells a worker: "They look different to me," we wish the voter good luck in having the vote counted. (V)

Pelosi: Administration Has 48 Hours to Get a COVID-19 Relief Bill

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told ABC's George Stephanopoulos yesterday that the administration has 48 hours to reach agreement with her or there will be no COVID-19 relief bill before the election. Pelosi is well aware that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is planning a vote on a minimal $500 billion bill on Wednesday, after her 48-hour deadline has expired. The two sides are still far apart on many issues. For example, on one of her proposed bills, the administration changed "shall" to "may," "requirements" to "recommendations," and took out 55% of the language in there about testing and tracing. She also said that the House bill had pages and pages about fighting the virus in minority communities and the administration struck it all.

Still, a bill now would probably help Donald Trump. At least it would give him something to crow about for the final 2 weeks of election season. What is so amazing (or maybe not) is that he isn't doing everything he can to get a bill. All he has to do is tell Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who is his lead negotiator: "I want a bill. I don't care what's in it." Mnuchin would then call Pelosi and say: "The president accepts the current version of your bill. Get the House to pass it today." Trump would then have to lean hard on McConnell to get him to bring it to a vote. The nuclear weapon here would be to threaten to endorse McConnell's opponent, Amy McGrath, saying she's a veteran and he loves veterans. If there were a floor vote, it would take only 13 Republicans to join the 47 Democrats to invoke cloture and pass the bill. But apparently Trump still thinks he can browbeat Pelosi into agreeing to the Republican bill. (V)

Debate Topics Have Been Announced

Absent a bill, Donald Trump's last chance to reset the election campaign is the last presidential debate, scheduled for Thursday in Nashville, TN. That is, if it happens at all. It is to Joe Biden's advantage to have it canceled, so he could insist on having Trump stand in an isolation booth or on giving the moderator a kill switch for the mics, things he knows are nonstarters with Trump. So far, he hasn't said much about the debate, though.

If the debate does happen, the topics will be: COVID-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security, and leadership. None of these really work to Trump's advantage, which might be a reason for Biden to agree to a debate under the same rules as the first debate. Biden is making his whole campaign about COVID-19, so he would love to talk about that. He would also love to talk about how American families are being hurt by Trump's mismanagement of COVID-19. Race and climate change are also Democratic talking points with which most of the country agrees. As to national security, Biden could tout his years as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. On leadership, Biden would bring up the fact that other countries have done much better managing COVID-19 because they had good leadership and the U.S. doesn't.

There is not a lot of material there that is favorable to Trump. Abortion, the Supreme Court, riots in the streets, and Black people marauding the suburbs aren't in the list, although Trump could just throw them in from time to time. He could try to bring up the economy when talking about American families. That is one of his stronger areas. Of course, he could also just scream and yell and try to bully Biden, but that didn't work so well the first time and probably wouldn't the second time either. But that doesn't mean he won't try if he gets the chance. (V)

Money Money Money Everywhere

Democratic Senate candidates have so much money they don't know where to spend it. Sixteen Democratic challengers raised more money in Q3 than the Republican incumbents they are trying to unseat. The Democrats' two most endangered incumbents, Sens. Gary Peters (MI) and Doug Jones (AL), also outraised their opponents.

Until this summer, the largest amount of money any Senate candidate ever raised in any state in any quarter was the $38 million Beto O'Rourke raised in Q3 Texas in 2018. Three Democrats just beat that. Sara Gideon (ME) raised $39 million, Mark Kelly (AZ) also raised $39 million, and Jaime Harrison (SC) raised $57 million. Amy McGrath missed, but her $37 million ain't chicken feed. In the 14 most competitive Senate races, Democrats pulled in $363 million to the Republicans' $143 million.

One of the problems all this money is causing is that it is creating a bidding war for television time, raising the costs to astronomical levels. The fight for time is also affecting outside groups. Mike Madrid of the Lincoln Project said: "We're reaching a point where there is nothing left to buy in some of these states." The airwaves are completely saturated. That is not surprising since seven of the ten most expensive Senate races in history are playing out right now.

With television time sold out, campaigns are spending big on social media platforms and even more bizarre places. Gaming platforms are saturated. In some places, gas pumps have TV screens where candidates are buying advertising time.

The enormous hauls by so many Democratic Senate candidates has put the DSCC in a good position. It doesn't have to support candidates like Gideon, Kelly, and Harrison. They can support themselves very well. So the DSCC can spend money in races deeper in Republican territory (like Iowa and Montana), where success is less likely, but with so much money floating around, they can afford to do so without endangering their top prospects. (V)

Gonzales Changes House Ratings

Political forecaster Nathan Gonzales, who took over from Stu Rothenberg a few years ago, has changed his forecast on 23 House races. Twenty of the changes favor the Democrats and three favor the Republicans. Most of the changes move a weak Democrat to a stronger Democrat or a strong Republican to a weaker Republican. However, eight of the races have now been moved to toss-up. Here are the races that Gonzales now sees as toss-ups:

District PVI Incumbent Old rating New rating
AZ-06 R+9 David Schweikert (R) Tilt Republican Toss-up
IL-13 R+3 Rodney Davis (R) Tilt Republican Toss-up
MN-01 R+5 Jim Hagedorn (R) Tilt Republican Toss-up
MN-07 R+12 Collin C. Peterson (D) Tilt Democratic Toss-up
MO-02 R+8 Ann Wagner (R) Tilt Republican Toss-up
NM-02 R+6 Xochitl Torres Small (D) Tilt Democratic Toss-up
PA-10 R+6 Scott Perry (R) Tilt Republican Toss-up
TX-21 R+10 Chip Roy (R) Tilt Republican Toss-up

What is especially noteworthy here is that all the new toss-up races are in districts with PVIs ranging from R+3 to R+12. Districts that are R+12 are not supposed to be toss-ups, but based on polling, fundraising, candidate quality, and other factors, Gonzales thinks they are 50-50.

Gonzales' overall prediction is that the Democrats will not only hold the lower chamber of Congress, but will pick up 10 to 20 seats to pad their majority. In 2018, the Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House, so an additional gain of 10 would be stunning. Nearly all the gains last time were in suburban districts and that is where the big battles will be this time as well. (V)

Political Impact of Barrett's Confirmation

It is virtually a done deal that Amy Coney Barrett will be on the Supreme Court before Nov. 1. Once she is seated, conservatives will try to get an abortion case in front of the Court as soon as possible. While it is possible that conservatives will try to get Roe v. Wade overturned outright, it is likely that Chief Justice John Roberts will do everything he can to avoid that, including backroom horse trading of votes on other cases, because he knows that outright repeal will greatly increase the chances that the Democrats increase the size of the Court if they have the power to do so. Instead, he will probably go for a de facto repeal, for example, by upholding state laws that require abortion providers to have admitting privileges with an in-state hospital not more than 10 miles away, even if no hospital in the state is willing to give abortion providers admitting privileges. That would de facto shut down abortion clinics in about 20 states without all the blowback that full repeal would give. The predicted decline in legal abortions would probably look something like this:

Impact of repealing Roe v. Wade

But it is not so certain that it would really work. For example, Illinois, which will certainly not restrict abortions, borders Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri, which will probably ban the procedure outright. There will be nothing to stop doctors in Illinois from setting up clinics 5 miles from these states' borders, but inside Illinois. States could pass laws banning travel to other states to get an abortion, but that is: (1) very hard to enforce and (2) invites retaliation. Will Indiana set up checkpoints on the road leading to an Illinois abortion clinic and question all women driving to Illinois about why they are going there? Suppose a woman says she is going to visit a friend or cousin. Will the Supreme Court rule that women have to give law enforcement the names, addresses, and phone numbers of people they are going to visit? How will that fly with Libertarian-oriented Republicans who are not fans of big intrusive government?

Suppose abortion clinics also set up slightly exotic frozen yogurt shops, like Yogen Fruz, next door, so a woman can say she is going there. Can a state trooper say: "Nobody drives 50 miles for an ice cream, so you are under arrest"? Could Congress pass the "Freedom of Ice Cream Act" that specifically addresses and permits interstate commerce involving interstate purchases of ice cream and frozen yogurt? And could the Indiana state trooper do anything if the woman came back later in the day with an actual receipt showing that she did purchase some frozen yogurt? If abortion clinics also opened along the border in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Mexico, that would put abortion within range of many more women.

But the biggest effect of repealing or strangling Roe would be on state politics. Remember, a large majority of Americans want abortion to be legal. State senators and state representatives/assemblypersons who banned it would find themselves in the spotlight. Normally, most people don't pay a lot of attention to state legislature races, but it is almost certain that if Roe were repealed or crippled and state legislatures began banning abortion left and right, a lot of state races would suddenly become very competitive. Democrats, especially, haven't cared much about state races (which is why Republicans were able to take over the state legislatures in 2010 and massively gerrymander many states), but all of a sudden they would care a lot. It could get quite uncomfortable for some hitherto unknown state senators. (V)

Six Reforms That Are Needed

Bob Bauer, who was White House counsel from 2009 to 2011, has written an op-ed in the Washington Post arguing for six legal reforms that are urgently needed and which could be achieved in a Biden administration. Here are brief summaries.

  • Prosecuting Trump: If Joe Biden wins, Democrats will undoubtedly be loudly demanding Donald Trump's head on a pike. Trump has said he might go to another country if he loses, but what country would risk taking him and incurring the wrath of the United States? Maybe North Korea, but few others. If an investigation of Trump and the current administration does occur, it is essential that it be conducted by a special counsel, far removed from politics, and done in a completely transparent way. This might require a new law to handle such situations.

  • When the president does it, it is legal: Richard Nixon was a big supporter of that concept. Congress needs to pass laws making it crystal clear that current laws relating to obstruction of justice, taking bribes, suborning perjury, witness tampering, and more also fully apply to the president and vice president and their families.

  • Pardons: Trump may pass out pardons like candy in January but there are things Congress can do to reduce future misuse of the pardon power. The first would be to make it a federal crime for the president to accept a bribe in return for a pardon or use the pardon power to try to influence a suspect in an investigation. If a president offered a pardon to someone if he refused to cooperate with investigators, the pardon itself would still be valid, but the president could later go to prison for obstruction of justice. The statute of limitations for these crimes should be at least 10-15 years so any president would have to worry about what a future administration run by the other party might do. Congress could also ban self-pardons, although the Supreme Court could overturn that.

  • Special counsels: The rules around special counsels need to be sharpened to prevent political interference. Robert Mueller's investigation uncovered many shortcomings in current rules. Congress should pass a law saying that a special counsel can be fired only for malfeasance in office. The law should also require special counsels who are fired to report to Congress on their findings and their view of why they were fired. Their powers (e.g., to issue subpoenas) should be strengthened and made explicit and not subject to being vetoed by the AG.

  • Partisan law enforcement: There is a need for laws that make using the Dept. of Justice for partisan purposes a federal crime. Obstruction of justice should apply to the attorney general and other department officials to make it clear to them that there will be consequences later for misusing their powers. A statute of limitations of 10-15 years (i.e., more than two presidential terms) would help.

  • Rules for look-back investigations: AG William Barr hired U.S. Attorney John Durham to investigate Barack Obama to see if he improperly spied on the Trump campaign in 2016. Such investigations can be useful, but they should be done by inspectors general, not prosecutors, since the IGs are better protected from interference by the AG. Any criminal wrongdoing should be pursued by special counsels, not normal prosecutors, to prevent the president from going after his enemies.

None of these reforms will completely stop a rogue president, but they will certainly impede him and also open him to prosecution after his term, which is itself a deterrent. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

The week began with a tornado of polling, and it concludes with a gentle ocean breeze of polling. YouGov has Arizona and Wisconsin a little closer than most pollsters, but still with Joe Biden leading. (Z)

State Biden Trump Start End Pollster
Arizona 50% 47% Oct 13 Oct 16 YouGov
Colorado 55% 38% Oct 12 Oct 16 RBI Strategies
Wisconsin 51% 46% Oct 13 Oct 16 YouGov

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

Today's Senate Polls

The two likeliest pickups for the Democrats continue to be the two likeliest pickups for the Democrats. (In case you are wondering, Maine is in third place on that list). (Z)

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Arizona Mark Kelly 52% Martha McSally* 41% Oct 13 Oct 16 YouGov
Colorado John Hickenlooper 53% Cory Gardner* 39% Oct 12 Oct 16 RBI Strategies

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster and Zenger
Oct18 Sunday Mailbag
Oct17 Saturday Q&A
Oct17 Today's Presidential Polls
Oct17 Today's Senate Polls
Oct16 Biden, Trump Hold Dueling Town Halls
Oct16 Full Speed Ahead for Barrett
Oct16 COVID-19 Hits the Biden/Harris Campaign
Oct16 Smoking Gun Isn't Smoking at All
Oct16 (Money) Can't Buy Me Love
Oct16 California Republicans Stick to Their Guns
Oct16 Sen. Ben Sasse Excoriates Trump
Oct16 Today's Presidential Polls
Oct16 Today's Senate Polls
Oct15 Two Half-Debates Will Take Place Tonight
Oct15 Barrett Performs Act II of the Kabuki Theater in Which She is Starring
Oct15 Supreme Court Says That the Administration Can Stop Counting Noses Now
Oct15 Appeals Court Upholds One Drop Box Per County in Texas
Oct15 Three Million New Voters Registered in Texas Since 2016
Oct15 The On-Again, Off-Again Coronavirus Relief Bill is Off Again
Oct15 Biden Is Actively Courting Moderates
Oct15 Only Half of Americans Expect to Know Who Won by Nov. 5
Oct15 Republicans Are Enthusiastic about Court Packing
Oct15 How Polling Has Changed Since 2016
Oct15 What's the Big Picture?
Oct15 Today's Presidential Polls
Oct15 Today's Senate Polls
Oct14 Barr "Unmasking" Probe Is a Dud
Oct14 Barrett Speaks Much, Says Little
Oct14 More Funny Feelings About 2020
Oct14 It's the Economy, Stupid
Oct14 Long Lines at Polling Places in Texas and Georgia
Oct14 Pennsylvania Women Sour on Trump
Oct14 Special Election in Georgia Is Getting Interesting
Oct14 Today's Presidential Polls
Oct14 Today's Senate Polls
Oct13 Let the Games Begin
Oct13 Trump Gets "Clean Bill of Health"
Oct13 Biden Win Could Be Called on Election Night
Oct13 Microsoft Shuts Down Hacking Operation
Oct13 California GOP Pushes the Envelope on Absentee Ballots
Oct13 Cunningham Situation Just Keeps Getting Worse
Oct13 COVID-19 Diaries: Open Water
Oct13 Today's Presidential Polls
Oct13 Today's Senate Polls
Oct12 Biden Leads Trump Nationally by 12 Points
Oct12 Time to Rewrite the History Books
Oct12 Absentee Vote So Far Favors the Democrats
Oct12 Drop Boxes Are the New Battleground
Oct12 Young People Aren't Sold on Voting Yet
Oct12 Biden Is Outspending Trump 50-to-1...on Radio