And now, our third senator in the last four entries, Tim Kaine:
Full Name: Timothy Michael Kaine
Age on January 20, 2029: 70 (and will turn 71 a little over a month later)
Background: Some politicians are without direction in their younger years, and then pull
themselves together a little later in life. Others are overachievers from an early age. Kaine is most certainly in the
latter group. One of three sons born to a blue-collar, Irish Catholic family, Kaine largely grew up in Kansas, and was
the star of the debate team and the student body president while attending the all-boys and Jesuit Rockhurst High School
in the Missouri part of Kansas City.
For college, Kaine stayed (fairly) local, and enrolled at University of Missouri, where he earned a B.A. in economics,
graduating summa cum laude in just 3 years. Then, he applied to and was accepted at Harvard Law School. After a
gap year, he enrolled at that institution, graduating in 1983. All of this kind of makes you want to punch him in the
nose, doesn't it?
Like many Democrats, Kaine is religious without feeling the need to rub people's noses in it. He spent his gap year
serving as a missionary in Honduras, where he worked at a vocational school that taught students carpentry and welding
(Kaine is an expert in both skills, by virtue of having worked in his father's ironworking shop). As a result of his
time spent abroad, Kaine is fluent in Spanish, and is not forced to resort to posing for pictures with a taco salad in
order to demonstrate his connection to the Latino community.
During his time at Harvard, Kaine met and married the former Anne Holton; they have three kids and just celebrated their
40th wedding anniversary. After graduating, he clerked for a federal judge and then worked for 17 years as a lawyer,
specializing in housing discrimination cases. During this phase of his career, he notably won a $100 million judgment
against Nationwide Insurance over discriminatory lending practices (though it was reduced on appeal, and ultimately
settled for $17.5 million).
Political Experience: Somewhat ironically, given his future profession, and given that his
wife is the daughter of a former governor of Virginia (Linwood Holton, R, who served 1970-74), Kaine was largely
apolitical for the first few decades of his life. However, he was eventually drawn into the arena, in part by his
in-laws, and in part by his engagement with housing issues.
Kaine's first election, and first win, came in 1994, when he was elected to the city council of Richmond, VA, in a
contest decided by just 97 votes. He served four terms as a councilor; for the latter two, he was also mayor (like many
cities, the mayor of Richmond is chosen from the ranks of, and remains a member of, the city council). His focus was
reducing violent crime in the city, and he had some success, though he probably benefited some from an overall national
decline in violent crime.
In 2001, Kaine was afforded an opportunity to move into state politics, albeit under regrettable circumstances. Keeping
in mind that statewide elections in Virginia tend to go against the party that controls the White House, and that George
W. Bush was in office in that year, the Democratic candidate for, and favorite to win, the lieutenant governorship was
state Sen. Emily Couric. However, during the campaign, she fell ill and was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (she
succumbed a few weeks before the election). After Couric was compelled to withdraw, the Democratic Party had to find a
replacement, and in a state where the Democratic bench was not yet that deep. They chose Kaine, of course, and he won
the election by a small-but-not-THAT-small margin, 50% to 48%.
Kaine served one term as Virginia's #2, and then declared a run for governor in 2005 (remember, Bush was still in the
White House) to be Virginia's #1. The victory was a bit bigger than the one in 2001, as Kaine won 52% to 46%. Kaine's
Republican opponent, Jerry Kilgore, was actually leading in the polls, but then his campaign committed several missteps.
Most obviously, there was an attempt to pull a Willie Horton of sorts, with a commercial claiming that the
anti-death-penalty Kaine said that even Adolf Hitler did not deserve to be executed. Kaine never said that, and the
attempted smear backfired on Kilgore.
The ever-ambitious Kaine delivered the Democrats' rebuttal to the State of the Union in 2006, served as chair of the
Southern Governors' Association from 2008-09, and then was "elected" chair of the Democratic National Committee in 2009.
We put "elected" in quotes because Kaine was handpicked by president-elect Barack Obama, and when a sitting president
(or president-elect) of either party says "I want [PERSON X] as chair," their party committee always rubber-stamps the
decision.
Kaine served simultaneously as governor of Virginia and DNC chair until his term as governor was up in January of 2010.
He left the latter job in 2011 when he was recruited to run in the 2012 U.S. Senate election to try to replace the
retiring Democrat Jim Webb. Kaine won that election, of course, and then won reelection in 2018. He also, as you may
have heard, ran unsuccessfully for VP in 2016, suffering the only electoral defeat of his career. By virtue of his
varied service, Kaine is one of just 30 people to have been a mayor, a governor and a U.S. Senator.
Signature Issue(s): Affordable housing. This obviously dates back to his days as a
private-practice lawyer, and continues today through his service on the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor,
and Pensions.
What Would His Pitch Be?: "After 4 years of chaos, it's time to have a steady hand
steering the ship of state."
Instructive Quote: "I'm not going to be anybody's punching bag."
Completely Trivial Fact: There is only one person who failed to be elected as a VP
nominee, but then came back to be elected as a presidential nominee. That person is Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was part
of the unsuccessful James Cox-led Democratic ticket in 1920, and then came back to lead his own successful Democratic
ticket (alongside VP John Nance Garner) in 1932.
Recent News: U.Va. President Jim Ryan was effectively forced to resign by the Department of
Justice; his last day on the job was last week. Kaine has taken a leading role in bringing attention to the matter, and
doing what he can
to make sure that the concerns of the campus community are heard and amplified.
Strengths for the Democratic Primaries: (1) By virtue of being bilingual, Kaine can do
Spanish-language commercials, town halls, etc., which tend to go over well; (2) Candidates from coastal Southern states
tend to do well in the very important South Carolina primary and (3) As a Senator, Kaine has a lot of ways to poke
Donald Trump in the eye, particularly if there is an impeachment trial in 2027 or 2028.
Weaknesses for the Democratic Primaries: (1) Their reasons are different, but there are
numerous factions in the Democratic Party who don't want a candidate who has any connection to Hillary Clinton;
(2) Kaine is as bland as unsalted pasta without sauce and (3) the Joe Biden experience is going to make many Democratic
voters leery of septuagenarian candidates for a very long time.
Polls: In YouGov's ongoing poll of American politicians, Kaine is in the Top 100 most
popular, #89 out of about 500 overall. That's pretty good. However, his "neighbors" on the list are Sen. Susan Collins
(R-ME), Mike Pence, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. That's not so good.
How Does the Readership Feel?: We asked readers for their thoughts on Kaine running for
president; here are some of those responses:
C.K. in Haymarket, VA: Kaine would be a terrible candidate. He is an old, white man
with strong Clinton ties. He is not an inspiring or exciting speaker.
E.S. In Providence, RI: Aside from being linked to Hillary Clinton (and by extension, the
Old People wing of the Democratic Party), Kaine's biggest problem was summed up in a Saturday Night Livesketch
in which he appeared:
E.K.M. in Delaware, OH: Tim Kaine lost a critical debate to Mike Pence. He has a virtuous
voting record. But he fell off the national stage that night and hasn't climbed—and won't climb—back up.
B.J.L. in Ann Arbor, MI: I taught in Blacksburg, VA, for quite a while and was on campus
for the massacre in 2007, when Kaine was governor of Virginia before becoming a senator. The day of the massacre, after
donning flak jackets, being sequestered for hours, having our university administrators holed up and eventually consumed
with defending their actions (which arguably included violations of the Clery Act), in the immediate aftermath of things,
I remember no playbook on going forward. Real-time tactical planning included my canvassing hospitals in the area with
no credentials to survey who was transported where. This was because the injured and dying were being sent away one
ambulance after another with no triage. Dozens of ambulances had been secured and were all lined up in short order.
Ultimately, I was tasked to resolve who was missing versus gone and talk to those who were injured (the ones that we could talk to).
That day, we represented the face of the school to injured students with families in
recovery rooms, or to hospital workers in the morgue. Wrenching day.
In the immediate aftermath, George W. Bush offered his words of condolence, but given his affinity for the Second Amendment
crowd, we were less excited to hear about it. We heard the big cheese was coming, as did hundreds of press people
who parked themselves on campus for random circus interviews. We heard Gov. Kaine was coming, too. He had just left on a trade mission in
Asia, and was immediately returning.
Bush read from a script. His comments and his presence were hardly acknowledged. I'm not sure anyone was
waiting to hear from someone in particular, but his comments were irrelevant. I appreciate he wanted to come, but it
would have been nice to lift a few fingers to address the root causes of the strife that left so many dead.
Kaine, on the other
hand, bleary eyed and sleep deprived, gave
an eloquent and riveting and inspired speech
to provide at least his rationale
for irrational circumstances. You could tell the difference between sincerity and mailing it in. No notes, he just
walked up there and delivered. I could say more, but that would look more like counseling.
He's not flashy, but Kaine is seasoned, and battle tested, and there's a sincerity that is there. It's clear that
isn't the current rage in Congress, where cowardice is reigning; it's too bad his approach hasn't been more widely adopted,
particularly by Republicans.
N.S. in Milwaukee, WI: Tim Kaine? Seriously? What is the conceivable profile of a Tim
Kaine primary voter? Who would be excited about that? Bernie Sanders could be 104 years old and still create a better
buzz.
Kaine's speech at the 2016 DNC convention was—and I am keeping things civil here—awful. His debate performance was
somewhere between average and borderline cringe-worthy. Maybe he could effectively govern, but that seems to be a
secondary question in current American political affairs.
I don't know who numbers 32 to 1 are on your list, but I can all but guarantee there are more viable candidates not on
your list than Tim Kaine. Such as, for example, Bob Ross. Yes, I know he's dead, but he is equally as charismatic, yet
somehow less boring even when talking about more boring subject matter, and is far more popular. But since Bob Ross is
unavailable, perhaps my living room lampshade could stand in. It performs a roughly equal role to Tim Kaine: dampening
the light that shines from something else.
I would, however, be somewhat intrigued to see where the "Citizen Kaine" memes would go...
H.G. in Herndon, VA: I have previously and proudly voted for Tim Kaine for lieutenant governor, governor, U.S.
Senator (twice), and vice president. And if he were to run... I would look for someone else. He would be 71 and the Democratic
party needs a fresh face and Kaine is everything but. He is a moderate who looks to compromise when the base most likely
wants blood.
The lane he occupies is the "competent adult in the room with all the young fresh faces who don't have executive
experience." He is fluent in Spanish and I believe gave the first Senate floor speech in Spanish, so that could help make
inroads with Latinos, I suppose. I think his time may have been 2020. He is a likeable person but his level of fighting
spirit is very low. He is a great constituent legislator, which doesn't always equate to "presidential candidate."
The Bottom Line: He's too old, too boring, and too closely linked to Hillary Clinton.
Sorry, Tim, you've had a very impressive career, but the Senate is where you are going to top out.
Next week, it's #31, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ). If readers have comments about Hobbs running for president in 2028, please
send them to comments@electoral-vote.com.
This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news,
Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.
