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Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     49 Republicans     1 tie


 
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strong Dem Strong Dem (45)
weak Dem Weak Dem (2)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (0)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Nov. 06 New polls: AZ CA CT FL MD MI MN MO MT NJ OH PA RI TN UT VA WA RSS
  Pickups: Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island


News from the Votemaster

Lots of polls and predictions today for your reading enjoyment. Be sure to come back tomorrow, when I will try to update the site in real time as the results come in.

Traffic is very heavy, so I have moved part of the load to PlanetLab. Unfortunately for complicated technical reasons, some corporate firewalls block PlanetLab. If you get an "Access Forbidden" message, use http://66.147.237.14. but www.electoral-vote.com should work for most people.

Polls of the Day

All 14 polls run on this site are summarized at www.electoral-vote.com/evp2006/Info/previous-polls.html. They are extremely precise--margins of error at or around 1% in all cases due to the large sample size. However, they are not terribly accurate because the samples are not random. If nothing else, this exercise should demonstrate once and for all that margin or error is not everything.

All polls end with a few demographic questions, so I will do that too. Please answer all three questions to give me and you an idea of the readership. It is likely to pass 200,000 visitors today.

What is your age?
<18 18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 >= 70   


Where do you live?
New England Mid-Atlantic states South Midwest West Pacific Coast Canada Europe Other   


What is your highest earned degree?
No high school diploma HS 2-yr college 4-yr college Masters Ph.D/MD/Law   

Senate Polls

More Senate polls than you can shake a stick at today (unless it is one of those new lightweight carbon fiber sticks). But the bottom line really hasn't changed: Democrats will likely win Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. The real battles are in Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. Whoever wins 2 out of 3 here controls the Senate. In the other states, the incumbent will win in a landslide.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Arizona Jim Pederson Jon Kyl* Nov 02 3 41% 49%   Mason-Dixon
California Dianne Feinstein* Dick Mountjoy Nov 04 3 60% 31%   SurveyUSA
Conn. Ned Lamont Alan Schlesinger Nov 04 3 38% 9% 49% SurveyUSA
Florida Bill Nelson* Katherine Harris Nov 04 3 59% 36%   SurveyUSA
Florida Bill Nelson* Katherine Harris Nov 02 3 60% 31%   Zogby
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Nov 03 3 47% 44%   Mason-Dixon
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* Mike Bouchard Nov 04 3 52% 42%   SurveyUSA
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* Mike Bouchard Nov 02 3 53% 37%   Mason-Dixon
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy Nov 01 1 54% 40%   Rasmussen
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Nov 04 4 49% 45%   Gallup
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Nov 03 3 46% 45%   Mason-Dixon
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Nov 04 1 50% 48%   Rasmussen
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Nov 03 3 50% 41%   Gallup
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 03 3 45% 42%   Monmouth U.
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 03 3 48% 41%   Mason-Dixon
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 03 3 50% 40%   Gallup
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 03 3 50% 42%   Marist Coll.
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Nov 02 3 50% 44%   Mason-Dixon
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Nov 03 10 62% 38%   Columbus Disp.
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Rick Santorum* Nov 02 3 52% 39%   Mason-Dixon
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Lincoln Chafee* Nov 03 3 48% 45%   Gallup
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Lincoln Chafee* Nov 02 3 45% 46%   Mason-Dixon
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Nov 04 1 47% 51%   Rasmussen
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Nov 04 4 46% 49%   Gallup
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Nov 03 3 38% 50%   Mason-Dixon
Utah Pete Ashdown Orrin Hatch* Nov 03 4 31% 61%   Mason-Dixon
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Nov 03 3 46% 45%   Mason-Dixon
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Nov 03 3 46% 49%   Gallup
Washington Maria Cantwell* Mike McGavick Nov 02 3 54% 38%   Mason-Dixon


House Polls

We also have a handful of House polls. Three of them are extremely ominous for the GOP. In FL-22, Clay Shaw (R-FL), a 12-term congressman who got 66% of the vote in 2004, is 9% behind. challenger Ron Klein (D). In NH-02, Charlie Bass (R-NH), a 6-term congressman who got 58% of the vote last time is 5% behind lawyer Paul Hodes (D), who has never held public office. Finally, in my favorite race, NY-20 , in the historic and beautiful Hudson Valley, incumbent four-term congressman John Sweeney (R-NY), who won 66% of the vote in 2004, is trailing a young activist lawyer, Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who defends abused women and children, but has never run for public office before. These are races the incumbent Republicans should have won in landslides. The mere fact that they are competitive is bad news.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
FL-22 Ron Klein Clay Shaw* Nov 02 3 49% 40%   Zogby
IA-01 Bruce Braley Mike Whalen Nov 03 4 56% 35%   Selzer
MN-05 Keith Ellison Alan Fine Nov 04 5 49% 24%   SurveyUSA
MT-AL Monica Lindeen Dennis Rehberg* Nov 02 3 33% 57%   Mason-Dixon
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter Jeb Bradley* Nov 04 4 37% 51%   Granite State Poll
NH-02 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass* Nov 04 4 44% 39%   Granite State Poll
NM-01 Patricia Madrid Heather Wilson* Nov 02 2 49% 45%   Res. and Polling
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand John Sweeney* Nov 02 2 46% 43%   Siena Coll.


Politics

Gutter politics has reached a new low. Automated push polling has been introduced to the get out the vote operation. It is cheap and deadly. If you haven't received one of these, very briefly, it works like this. The computer calls hundreds of thousands of people and plays a message like: Hello, this is the XYZ polling company. Press 1 if you know that candidate A supports conducting medical experiments on innocent healthy babies, else press 2. Then it asks more questions, but the purpose is to slander candidate A, who supports stem cell research, not run a poll. The NYT has the story.

The table below contains the final predictions of the top political analysts in the country, as well as Electoral-vote.com. The order of the numbers is: Democrats-Republicans-Tossups. As you can see, some analysts are bold and brave and give actual predictions, while others try to weasel out of making tough choices. Clearly a Senate prediction of 27-40-33 can't be wrong, but it isn't very ambitious. Final results will come in the next few days, or after the Supreme Court meets, whichever comes first. The electoral-vote.com entry is based on the polls. The Votemaster entry is my personal intuition.

Guru Senate House
Congressional Quarterly 48-48-4 212-199-24
Charlie Cook 49-49-2 223-197-15
Stu Rothenberg 51-49 237-192-6
Larry Sabato 51-49 232-203
Chuck Todd (Note 1) (Note 2)
Electoral-vote.com 50-49-1 241-193-1
Votemaster 49-49-2 235-200
Election 2006 ? ?

Note 1: Either 48-52 or 52-48, not in between
Note 2: Either 219-214-2 or 233-197-5, not in between
Projected New House*:     239 Democrats     196 Republicans
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 ID-01 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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