Obama 297
image description
Ties 29
Romney 212
image description
Dem 47
image description
Ties 3
GOP 50
image description
  • Strongly Dem (177)
  • Likely Dem (64)
  • Barely Dem (56)
  • Exactly tied (29)
  • Barely GOP (21)
  • Likely GOP (49)
  • Strongly GOP (142)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: (None)
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: IN IA NC
PW logo 500 Days Portman to Help Romney in Debate Prep
Another GOP Senate Candidate Makes Abortion Gaffe RNC Swag Bag Has Early Version of Romney Book
More Interest in GOP Platform than Romney's Speech Obama Continues Soft Media Strategy

News from the Votemaster

Why Did the Republicans Pick Hurricane-Prone Tampa?

While Tampa is subject to disruptive hurricanes from time to time, for either party it is an attractive pick in other ways. First, Florida is the mother of all swing states with the most electoral votes (29) of any swing state, so picking Florida is easy (if you don't mind the oppressive heat and hurricanes). Tampa is in Hillsborough County, which gave Bush 53% in 2004 and Obama 53% in 2008, so it is a large (1.2 million people) swing county. Neighboring counties, including Hernando, Pasco, and Polk are reddish, and Romney needs to win big there to counter expected losses in South Florida. The area has also been hit hard economically, so an economic pitch is likely to resonate. All in all, the area is a big battleground and showering attention on it is a smart move for the Republicans.

What Does Romney Have to Do at the Convention?

What Mitt Romney needs to do at the convention is not so much hammer Obama on the economy--he has been doing that all year--but to try to make people like him. History shows that people will not vote for someone they don't like, even if they like his policies (think: John Kerry in 2004). Humanizing himself will be tough, though, He is famously private and his life story (born the son of a wealthy and powerful governor into a religion few people understand and many find strange) is not quite the American dream. He could make jokes about minor disagreements with his wife, but that is unlikely to work. He could get a good speechwriter to make a soaring speech about the future of America, but that is likely to fall flat. He could talk about new policies, but long ago he made the decision not to discuss any specific policies. Some probably all that is left is attacking Obama some more, but although that might make Obama less likable, it doesn't make Romney more likable, which is what he needs to do.

Up-and-Coming Republicans Will Speak at the Convention

In theory, Mitt Romney will be the star of the Republican National Convention, but he's not a very good speaker, tries to be as vague as possible about what he would do as President, and most people have heard him speak hundreds of times, if only for 30 seconds. For this reason, there will be a lot of attention paid to some of the party's rising stars, such as these.

  • Chris Christie. The New Jersey governor's in-your-face style is something some people adore and others abhor. He is a relative moderate in an increasingly conservative party, but he no doubt has plans to run for President some day, if he gets the breaks. A great keynote speech would certainly propel him in the right direction.

  • Marco Rubio. The Republicans have become a party of old, white, Southern men and if they want to stay relevant in the decades to come, they are going to have to break out of that mold. One way they could do that is to run Marco Rubio for President in 2016 or 2020, something Rubio is keenly aware of. If he can make a great speech, it will set fire to his future candidacy, as did Barack Obama's 2004 speech at the Democratic convention.

  • Rand Paul. The young senator from Kentucky could inherit the role of Libertarian-in-Chief from his retiring father, Ron Paul, if he wants to. The elder Paul and Romney disagree on many issues. What will be interesting to see is how much Paul is focused on Romney vs. focused on the issues his father holds dear.

  • Paul Ryan. Most people have never heard him speak. This is his chance to introduce himself. Does he want to come over as a policy wonk? A budget cutter? A guy who defers to the head of the ticket? We'll see. Ryan is surely aware that if Romney loses, he is kind of next in line to go for the brass ring in 2016, so he'd better do a good job.

  • Susana Martinez. She's a real twofer for the Republicans: a woman and a Latina at that, and from the West, which is becoming more and more Democratic over time. If she wows the crowd, she will be on everyone's list as a possible Veep in 2016 or 2020.

Yet Another Guide to the Republican Party

Analyzing the various factions within each party has been a popular activity. Here is another guide, to the Republican Party, this one from the New York Times.

  • Main Street Voters. Pragmatists who are Republicans 1st, conservatives 2nd and care about the economy & taxes
  • Tea Party Voters. Radical wing that distrusts elites and the GOP leadership and is against compromise and taxes
  • Christian conservatives. Agenda-driven white evangelicals who care about abortion and gay marriage
  • Libertarians. Well off, pro-business, anti-government voters but not religious and want smaller government
  • The Disaffected. Voters who distrust government and business and are against concentration of economic power

Charlie Crist Endorses Obama

The one-time Republican governor of Florida, who is currently an independent, has endorsed President Obama. Crist is still popular in Florida, and if he campaigns for Obama, that could help the President. It could also help Crist, who is now likely to complete his conversion to becoming a Democrat and to run for public office as one, perhaps for the Senate against Marco Rubio or for governor against Rick Scott. Crist is definitely not a spent force in Florida politics.

Ron Paul Exits Gracefully

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), whose libertarian views scare much of the Republican Party, held a farewell party for himself yesterday. The 77-year-old congressman is retiring from the House and politics. He could have disrupted the Republican convention, but chose to hold his own event yesterday. He was offered a speaking slot at the convention, provided Romney got to vet his speech in advance. He refused because he doesn't fully endorse Romney.

No Bananas at the Republican Convention

The world is full of crazy rules (e.g., airlines allow heavy bottles of duty-free wine on flights but not small external hard disk drives because you could throw one at the pilot) and one of these is that RNC attendees may not bring bananas into the hall, along with 24 other items. Despite heavy rain, umbrellas are also officially forbidden although small ones might be able to sneak in. Needless to say, security is extremely tight in Tampa this week to make sure that there are no unexpected visitors and no security incidents.

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Aug26 Republicans Cancel First Day of Convention
Aug26 Are Convention Bounces Real?
Aug26 Why Do Cities Host Political Conventions?
Aug26 Planned Parenthood Plans Battle
Aug25 Republican Convention Schedule Changed
Aug25 Republican Platform Has Changes from Previous Years
Aug25 Democratic Congressman: GOP Anti-Immigrant Platform Will Backfire
Aug25 AARP Flags Key Issues for Seniors
Aug25 Akin Again Affirms He Will Stay in Senate Race
Aug24 Poll Shows Women See Romney as Out of Step on Their Health Issues
Aug24 Could North Dakota Senate Race Be Competitive?
Aug24 Hundreds of Pages of Bain Capital Internal Documents Published Online
Aug24 Hurricane Isaac Could Affect Security at Republican National Convention
Aug24 Nevada Voters Have to Pick Somebody for President
Aug23 How Can the Republican Party Pressure Akin to Leave the Race?
Aug23 Republican Platform Committee Adopts Plank Banning All Abortions
Aug23 Hurricane Might Hit Tampa During Republican National Convention
Aug23 Both Parties Announce Convention Speakers
Aug23 Obama To Campaign in Swing States During Republican Convention
Aug22 Romney Calls on Akin to Drop Out of Missouri Senate Race
Aug22 Akin Incident Brings Up the Akin-Ryan Anti-Abortion Bill
Aug22 Six Theories about Why Akin Refuses to Drop Out
Aug22 New Study Shows That In-Person Voting Fraud Is Microscopic
Aug22 Biden to Campaign in Tampa During Republican Convention
Aug22 Voters Are Ignorant on Medicare Proposal
Aug21 Akin Vows to Stay in the Senate Race
Aug21 GOP Platform to Call for Constitutional Amendment Banning Abortion
Aug21 Romney Has Big Cash Advantage over Obama
Aug21 NRSC Outraises DSCC in July and Has More Cash on Hand
Aug21 Democratic Officials Suspended for Trying to Keep Polls Open Longer
Aug20 A Dozen Senate Seats Are in Play
Aug20 GOP Senate Nominee Says Legitimate Rape Victims Don't Get Pregnant
Aug20 2012 Will Be A Base Election
Aug20 Romney Has a Big To-Do List for the Next Week
Aug20 The End of WASP Rule?
Aug19 Both Parties Are Uneasy Coalitions of Warring Factions
Aug19 Florida Senate Race Also Tied to Medicare
Aug19 Obama Offers a Compromise on Romney's Taxes but Romney Says No
Aug19 House Members Running for Vice President is a Rarity
Aug18 Obama Is the Overwhelming Favorite of Nonvoters
Aug18 Federal Court Rules Florida Cannot Reduce Early Voting in Five Counties
Aug18 Ryan Releases Two Years of Tax Returns
Aug18 Romney's Name May Not Be on the Ballot in Washington State
Aug18 Ron Paul Will Hold a Big Party in Tampa
Aug17 Romney Says He Paid 13.6% or More for the Last 10 Years
Aug17 Romney Started a Trend: Thompson Won't Release Tax Returns Either
Aug17 Only 3-5% of Voters Are Truly Undecided
Aug17 Romney's Biggest (Political) Assets and Liabilities Listed
Aug17 Medicare Now More Important with Voters Than Obamacare
Aug17 Ryan's Presence on Ticket Will Restart Social Security Debate