Obama 297
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Ties 29
Romney 212
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Dem 47
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Ties 3
GOP 50
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  • Strongly Dem (177)
  • Likely Dem (64)
  • Barely Dem (56)
  • Exactly tied (29)
  • Barely GOP (21)
  • Likely GOP (49)
  • Strongly GOP (142)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: MO PA
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: IN IA NC
PW logo Extra Bonus Quote of the Day Huckabee Rallies Support for Akin
Paul Refused to Endorse Romney Bonus Quote of the Day
Romney Adopts a Harder Message Ohio is a Dead Heat

News from the Votemaster

Republicans Cancel First Day of Convention

The Republican National Committee has canceled all activities for Monday due to Tropical storm/Hurricane Isaac. The convention will simply be a day shorter. But the networks weren't planning to cover Monday anyway, so not much is lost.

A communications consultant, Rich Masters, has offered a way for the Republicans to make hay from Isaac. First the delegates should quickly nominate Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Then Romney could show his decisive leadership by announcing the end of the convention immediately, in order to free up the police assigned to the convention to let them deal with the storm. Romney and Ryan would head off to Ohio or Colorado to deliver their speeches. This would show the people of Florida that they care about the state's welfare as well as showering attention on one or two other swing states. But most of all, it would show Romney as a decisive leader who can deal with a crisis.

But maybe there is more afoot here. In 2004, Hurricane Frances hit Florida and the Florida delegation had to leave the Republican convention early. In 2008, Hurricane Gustav struck and the Republicans felt it necessary to cancel a day of activities. Now Isaac is wreaking havoc with the Republicans' plans. Could this just be a coincidence? Florida is often hit by hurricanes but three times in a row is statistically very unlikely. Could it be that God is trying to send the Republicans a message that 3 days are enough?

Are Convention Bounces Real?

An analysis of 24 conventions since 1960 shows that convention bounces are real. The Democrats have gotten an average bounce of 7.3% and the Republicans have averaged 6.4%. So on the whole, the effects cancel out and neither party gains anything from their convention in the long run.

In previous years, campaigns started after Labor Day but this year they have been going full blast for months. Consequently, the bumps may be less because the conventions won't be introducing the candidates to the public. They are well known already.

Why Do Cities Host Political Conventions?

The biggest reason cities want political convention is money. The 50,000 people expected to show up in Tampa are probably going to leave something like $175 million behind. Hotels and restaurants certainly like conventions, as do other businesses as varied as equipment rental and strip clubs. Of course there are costs, too, such as additional police protection and possible costs from protests and vandalism. Nevertheless, city governments like conventions. In fact, Tampa tried to get the Republicans in 2004 and 2008 and failed but kept trying. An additional benefit is that it puts the city on the map for potential future tourists.

Planned Parenthood Plans Battle

In politics as in physics, for every action there is a reaction. Mitt Romney has said he would defund Planned Parenthood (for ideological reasons only since the amount of money involved is miniscule). So Planned Parenthood has set up an action fund that will spend $3 million in Ohio and Virginia trying to defeat Romney.. Polls show the races very close in these large swing states.Planned Parenthood deals with all aspects of women's reproductive health. It has 7 million members. Its campaign will be designed to increase the already-substantial gender gap.

Today's Presidential Polls

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
Missouri 43% 50%   Aug 22 Aug 23 Mason Dixon
Pennsylvania 51% 42%   Aug 21 Aug 23 Global Strategy

Today's Senate Polls

Today we have another Missouri Senate poll showing the fallout of Todd Akin's remarks about "legitimate rape." Mason-Dixon has Akin down by 9 points, almost the same as Rasmussen's poll in essentially the same time frame showing him down by 10 points. He clearly dropped something like 20 points in 5 seconds, a feat not easily achieved.

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Missouri Claire McCaskill* 50% Todd Akin 41%     Aug 22 Aug 23 Mason Dixon

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Aug25 Republican Convention Schedule Changed
Aug25 Republican Platform Has Changes from Previous Years
Aug25 Democratic Congressman: GOP Anti-Immigrant Platform Will Backfire
Aug25 AARP Flags Key Issues for Seniors
Aug25 Akin Again Affirms He Will Stay in Senate Race
Aug24 Poll Shows Women See Romney as Out of Step on Their Health Issues
Aug24 Could North Dakota Senate Race Be Competitive?
Aug24 Hundreds of Pages of Bain Capital Internal Documents Published Online
Aug24 Hurricane Isaac Could Affect Security at Republican National Convention
Aug24 Nevada Voters Have to Pick Somebody for President
Aug23 How Can the Republican Party Pressure Akin to Leave the Race?
Aug23 Republican Platform Committee Adopts Plank Banning All Abortions
Aug23 Hurricane Might Hit Tampa During Republican National Convention
Aug23 Both Parties Announce Convention Speakers
Aug23 Obama To Campaign in Swing States During Republican Convention
Aug22 Romney Calls on Akin to Drop Out of Missouri Senate Race
Aug22 Akin Incident Brings Up the Akin-Ryan Anti-Abortion Bill
Aug22 Six Theories about Why Akin Refuses to Drop Out
Aug22 New Study Shows That In-Person Voting Fraud Is Microscopic
Aug22 Biden to Campaign in Tampa During Republican Convention
Aug22 Voters Are Ignorant on Medicare Proposal
Aug21 Akin Vows to Stay in the Senate Race
Aug21 GOP Platform to Call for Constitutional Amendment Banning Abortion
Aug21 Romney Has Big Cash Advantage over Obama
Aug21 NRSC Outraises DSCC in July and Has More Cash on Hand
Aug21 Democratic Officials Suspended for Trying to Keep Polls Open Longer
Aug20 A Dozen Senate Seats Are in Play
Aug20 GOP Senate Nominee Says Legitimate Rape Victims Don't Get Pregnant
Aug20 2012 Will Be A Base Election
Aug20 Romney Has a Big To-Do List for the Next Week
Aug20 The End of WASP Rule?
Aug19 Both Parties Are Uneasy Coalitions of Warring Factions
Aug19 Florida Senate Race Also Tied to Medicare
Aug19 Obama Offers a Compromise on Romney's Taxes but Romney Says No
Aug19 House Members Running for Vice President is a Rarity
Aug18 Obama Is the Overwhelming Favorite of Nonvoters
Aug18 Federal Court Rules Florida Cannot Reduce Early Voting in Five Counties
Aug18 Ryan Releases Two Years of Tax Returns
Aug18 Romney's Name May Not Be on the Ballot in Washington State
Aug18 Ron Paul Will Hold a Big Party in Tampa
Aug17 Romney Says He Paid 13.6% or More for the Last 10 Years
Aug17 Romney Started a Trend: Thompson Won't Release Tax Returns Either
Aug17 Only 3-5% of Voters Are Truly Undecided
Aug17 Romney's Biggest (Political) Assets and Liabilities Listed
Aug17 Medicare Now More Important with Voters Than Obamacare
Aug17 Ryan's Presence on Ticket Will Restart Social Security Debate
Aug17 iPhone App Also Works on iPad
Aug16 Thousands of People Apply to Defer Deportation
Aug16 Romney Gets Bump from Picking Ryan
Aug16 Why Did Pennsylvania Judge Uphold Voter ID Law