Obama 297
image description
Romney 241
image description
Dem 50
image description
Ties 3
GOP 47
image description
  • Strongly Dem (194)
  • Likely Dem (83)
  • Barely Dem (20)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (50)
  • Likely GOP (47)
  • Strongly GOP (144)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: FL ME WI
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: FL IN IA NC
PW logo How Romney Walked Into a Bain Trap Romney's Own Testimony Contradicts Claims
Condi Rice Leads Veep Short List? Romney Pushes Back Hard Against Bain Attacks
The Ruse of Blind Trusts Obama Retains Significant National Lead

News from the Votemaster

Flake Having a Tougher than Expected Primary in Arizona

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) was expected to win an easy primary victory over rich businessman and tea party favorite Wil Cardon, but it hasn't turned out quite like that. While Flake has been a reliable conservative vote in the House, he is not especially popular with his Republican colleagues and few have endorsed him or donated money to his campaign. The latter is important because Cardon is throwing vast amounts of his personal fortune into the race, greatly outspending Flake. Consequently, Flake is having to use up money now that he had hoped to use in the general election. There he will face Richard Carmona (D), George W. Bush's Surgeon General. Carmona is a Latino and a veteran, which will surely help in a state with many of each. Even if Flake wins the primary, he is going to come out of it with high negatives and no money. Of course, superPACs, like American Crossroads, may come to his aid financially, but it is harder to erase his negatives. The Senate seat is open because Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) is retiring.

Scott Brown Raises $5 million in Second Quarter

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) has announced that he raised $5 million in the second quarter of 2012. His opponent, Elizabeth Warren, raised $8.6 million in the same period. Nevertheless, Brown has more money in the bank than Warren, $15.5 million to $13.5 million. This is likely to be the most expensive Senate race in the country.

House Republicans Vote to Repeal Obamacare--Again

House Republicans held one of their periodic votes to repeal the ACA yesterday. It passed, as it always does, but it will die in the Senate, as it always does. These votes are pure grandstanding since they know the Senate will never go along with repeal.

What is interesting, though, is their failure to make good on their 2010 election promises to repeal and replace. They made some fairly specific promises about what they would have instead of Obamacare. These include allowing insurance companies to sell health insurance nationally, tort reform, and health savings accounts. There has been no action on any of these and no bills relating to any of them have even come to a vote. If the Republicans were serious about their own plans, the House would have passed bills containing the Republican alternatives to Obamacare, but nothing like this has happened. At the very least, it would make it look like they have an alternative that they believe in.

Voters Would Accept Black, Female, Catholic,or Hispanic President

A recent Gallup poll asked voters which about various demographic categories and whether they would vote for a presidential candidate in each of them. Here are the results.

Category Yes No
Black 96% 4%
Female 95% 5%
Catholic 94% 5%
Hispanic 92% 7%
Jewish 91% 6%
Mormon 80% 18%
Gay or Lesbian 68% 30%
Muslim 58% 40%
Atheist 54% 43%

While interesting, what the poll really says is what people are willing to tell a pollster, rather than how they would actually vote. Although 18% of the respondents said that would not vote for a Mormon, when push comes to shove (and the shoving date is Nov. 6, 2012), given a choice between a white, Republican Mormon and a black, Democratic generic Protestant, it remains to be seen whether the expressed bigotry against Mormons dominates. It is also possible that some of the anti-Mormon voters rationalize their vote by convincing themselves that Obama is a Muslim, which in their eyes is even worse.

Nevertheless, polls of this type, while they can't be taken at face value, do have considerable value. The link above also gives historical data. For example, in 1937, when Gallup first starting asking this question, only 33% would vote for a woman, 46% for a Jew, and 60% for a Catholic. There has been an immense change since then and the change is undoubtedly real.

iPhone App Now Available

There is an app for the iPhone available. Click on the little iPhone icon above to get it. Actually, it has been available for some time, but there was a bug in the data stream that has now been corrected.

Today's Presidential Polls

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
Florida 45% 46%   Jul 09 Jul 09 Rasmussen
Maine 49% 35%   Jun 20 Jun 25 Critical Insights
Wisconsin 50% 44%   Jul 05 Jul 08 PPP
Wisconsin 51% 43%   Jul 05 Jul 08 Marquette Law School

Today's Senate Polls

A new Rasmussen poll has Connie McGillicuddy IV leading Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) by 9 points. This is the first poll all year that shows Nelson trailing outside the margin of error. Maybe things have changed in Florida, although there has not been any news that affects Floridians in a major way, maybe this is an outlier, or maybe there is a problem with Rasmussen's demographic model. Rasmussen is known to have a strong Republican house effect. It will be interesting to see the next poll from another outfit.

In Maine, former governor Angus King is cruising to a landslide victory over both of his opponents. In a sense, this is remarkable because unlike Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who is an IINO, King refuses to say whether he would caucus with the Democrats or Republicans. It is as if the people of Maine are saying: "Angus is a great guy and we don't really care whether Harry Reid or Mitch McConnell runs the Senate." But it may be that a lot of people feel that King is really a secret Democrat. There is some circumstantial evidence for that. He used to work for a company specializing in green energy and he once was an aide to a Democratic senator, William Hathaway. Also noteworthy is that the official Democratic candidate, Cynthia Dill, is polling at 7%, on the same day a poll showing Obama leading Romney 49% to 35% in Maine. It could well be that King has given private assurances to Democratic leaders that he will caucus with them, so they are withholding all help from Dill to avoid splitting the vote and electing the Republican, as happened in the 2010 gubernatorial race.

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Florida Bill Nelson 37% Connie McGillicuddy 46%     Jul 09 Jul 09 Rasmussen
Maine Cynthia Dill 07% Charlie Summers 27% Angus King 55% Jun 20 Jun 25 Critical Insights
Virginia Tim Kaine 46% George Allen 44%     Jul 05 Jul 08 PPP

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Jul11 Hovde Narrowly Edges Thompson in Wisconsin Senatorial Primary
Jul11 Missouri Republican Primary Gets Nasty
Jul11 Obama Has More Cash in the Bank than Romney
Jul11 Karl Rove's Groups Expect to Spend $70 Million on Senate Races
Jul11 Florida and Iowa Blocking Former Felons from Voting
Jul10 Polling Drought Continues Unabated
Jul10 Obama Wants to Keep Bush Tax Cuts Only for Incomes below $250,000
Jul10 Romney Raises $106 million in June
Jul10 Ron Paul's Last Hurrah
Jul10 House Ethics Panel Votes to Investigate Shelley Berkley
Jul10 Tension Reported at the Supreme Court
Jul09 Obama Ahead in Swing States
Jul09 Democrats Pound Romney on Tax Returns and Off-Shore Bank Accounts
Jul09 Jobs for Men Do Not Return after a Recession
Jul09 How Wise Are Crowds?
Jul08 Karl Rove's Group Starts $25 Million Ad Campaign Attacking Obama on Economy
Jul08 Romney Considering Both the Rich and the Poor as Veep
Jul08 Congressman Barney Frank Marries His Long-Time Partner
Jul07 Poor Jobs Report Announced
Jul07 Romney Begins Preparing for the Fall Debates
Jul07 Christie Self Eliminates from Consideration as Veep
Jul06 Competitive Senate Primaries Ahead
Jul06 It's All Over but the Shoutin'
Jul06 Who Cares?
Jul05 Scientists Sequence Fetal Genome from Maternal Blood
Jul05 DCCC Has Biggest Small Donor Fundraising Day in History
Jul05 Will the Republicans Be Able to Repeal Obamacare Even If They Win All the Marbles?
Jul04 Happy 236th Birthday America
Jul04 Half the Population Does Not Know Supreme Court Approved the ACA
Jul04 Congressional Mandates Go Back over 200 Years
Jul04 Vacation as Campaigning
Jul03 Roberts Reportedly Changed Sides after Oral Arguments
Jul03 Several States Have Already Rejected the Medicaid Expansion in the ACA
Jul03 Romney Says the ACA Penalty is not a Tax
Jul02 Which Party Is Best at Managing the Economy?
Jul02 Does a President's Religion Matter?
Jul02 Bain Ads Apparently Working
Jul01 Obama Gets a Boost from Supreme Court Ruling on the ACA
Jul01 Billionaires Are Starting to Fund Down-Ticket Races
Jul01 Was Roberts Sending a Dog Whistle to Congress: Save the Institution?
Jul01 Is Mexico Leading the Way in Polling?
Jun30 Americans Evenly Split on Supreme Court Decision on ACA
Jun30 A Rarely Mentioned Objection to the ACA
Jun30 Red States May Try to Bargain on Medicaid
Jun30 Difference Between ACA and Raich Explained
Jun29 Supreme Court Upholds Affordable care Act
Jun28 The Moment of Truth Has Arrived
Jun27 Wendy Long Wins New York Republican Senatorial Primary
Jun27 John Roberts' Big Moment?
Jun27 Speculation about Romney's Veep Choices