Obama 297
image description
Romney 241
image description
Dem 49
image description
Ties 3
GOP 48
image description
  • Strongly Dem (194)
  • Likely Dem (83)
  • Barely Dem (20)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (50)
  • Likely GOP (47)
  • Strongly GOP (144)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: NC
Dem pickups: (None)
GOP pickups: FL IN IA NC
PW logo Romney Says He'll Release Just Two Years of Tax Returns Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
Obama Says Romney Needs to Answer Bain Questions The Parties Versus the People
Romney Admitted in 2002 He Never Cut Ties to Bain Can You Really be CEO with No Responsibilities?

News from the Votemaster

Cruz Leading Dewhurst in Texas Republican Primary

It seems like almost every day we have a story about a tea party candidate threatening the establishment candidate in a Republican senatorial primary. Yesterday we had Wil Cardon in Arizona and Wednesday we had Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and John Brunner in Missouri. Today's story is about Ted Cruz, who appears to be leading Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R-TX). A new PPP poll has Cruz ahead 49% to 44%.

However, there are big differences between Texas on the one hand and Arizona, Wisconsin, and Missouri on the other. For starters, Texas is a very red state. It is tough for any Democrat to win here. Second, the Democrats don't even have a candidate yet. So if Cruz wins the primary, he will almost certainly be the next senator from Texas. In Arizona, which is not nearly so red as Texas, the Democrats have an extremely strong candidate in Richard Carmona, who didn't even have to wage a primary fight. Wisconsin is a blue state and the Democrats have a strong candidate who also didn't have a primary. Finally, Missouri is a swing state, but the Democrat is an incumbent senator, Claire McCaskill.

Romney Calls Obama a Liar

Once upon a time, long ago in a faraway land, people showed a certain amount of respect for their leader, even if they disagreed with him. That certainly doesn't apply to America now. Mitt Romney has now called President Obama a liar for saying that Bain Capital outsourced jobs overseas. Probably we can draw two conclusions from this new development. First, this may be the nastiest, most personal campaign in memory. Second, Obama's attacks on Romney's time at Bain are clearly having an effect. It is very dangerous for Romney to call Obama a liar since that in itself becomes a news story and people who hadn't noticed Obama's attacks may now sit up and take notice of what's going on. It is a long-standing rule of politics, if you don't want people to think about X, don't talk about X yourself and when your opponent does, ignore him. Romney apparently felt so much damage is being done that he had to do something.

In a related area, Romney claims that he left Bain Capital in 1999, but an article in the Boston Globe says that according to SEC documents he remained CEO until 2002. Obama has jumped on this but didn't call Romney a liar. It matters when Romney left because if he was CEO until 2002, the outsourcing of jobs that occurred in 1999-2002 was on his watch. If he left in 1999, then signing SEC documents in 2000 through 2002, when he wasn't CEO, is a felony. This is somewhat subtle material but having Romney's past dominate the news puts Romney on the defensive when he wants to talk 24/7 about how Obama has failed to fix the economy.

Republicans Worry That Romney Is Being Swiftboated

Remember back in 2004 when a Republican-allied group managed to attack candidate John Kerry on his supposed strength--his time as commander of a swift boat during the Vietnam war? Some Republicans are now worried the same thing is happening to Mitt Romney. His supposed strength--his business experience at Bain Capital--is under constant attack for ruining companies and people's lives. These Republicans want him to hit back much harder than he is doing now. So far, Romney has been hesitant to do so for fear of drawing even more attention to his time at Bain.

A New Gap: Marriage

In addition to the well known gender gap (women prefer Democrats, men prefer Republicans), a new Quinnipiac University poll shows that nationwide Romney has the support of married voters 51% to 38%. Unmarried voters go for Obama 54% to 34%. In both categories, women support Obama more than men. The director of the poll, Peter Brown, says that in general, married people tend to be older, wealthier, whiter, and more Republican than unmarried voters. Married voters are also more likely to focus on the economy and health care, whereas the unmarried are more concerned about gay rights and reproductive issues.

Over 5 Million Felons Are Disenfranchised

A new study shows that 5.85 million felons and ex-felons are disenfranchised. The ones currently in prison clearly have no right to vote, but there is a lot of controversy about those who have served their time and been released. Some states, like Florida, are trying to make it hard for former felons to vote, no doubt because a large percentage of them are minorities and skew Democratic. It is estimated that in a close election, the difference between Obama and Romney could be less than the number of people disenfranchised.

Today's Presidential Polls

State Obama Romney   Start End Pollster
North Carolina 48% 49%   Jul 01 Jul 08 Project New America

Today's Senate Polls

State Democrat D % Republican R % I I % Start End Pollster
Florida Bill Nelson 47% Connie McGillicuddy 42%     Jul 09 Jul 11 Mason Dixon
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp 40% Rick Berg 49%     Jul 10 Jul 11 Rasmussen

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster

Previous Headlines

Jul12 Flake Having a Tougher than Expected Primary in Arizona
Jul12 Scott Brown Raises $5 million in Second Quarter
Jul12 House Republicans Vote to Repeal Obamacare--Again
Jul12 Voters Would Accept Black, Female, Catholic,or Hispanic President
Jul12 iPhone App Now Available
Jul11 Hovde Narrowly Edges Thompson in Wisconsin Senatorial Primary
Jul11 Missouri Republican Primary Gets Nasty
Jul11 Obama Has More Cash in the Bank than Romney
Jul11 Karl Rove's Groups Expect to Spend $70 Million on Senate Races
Jul11 Florida and Iowa Blocking Former Felons from Voting
Jul10 Polling Drought Continues Unabated
Jul10 Obama Wants to Keep Bush Tax Cuts Only for Incomes below $250,000
Jul10 Romney Raises $106 million in June
Jul10 Ron Paul's Last Hurrah
Jul10 House Ethics Panel Votes to Investigate Shelley Berkley
Jul10 Tension Reported at the Supreme Court
Jul09 Obama Ahead in Swing States
Jul09 Democrats Pound Romney on Tax Returns and Off-Shore Bank Accounts
Jul09 Jobs for Men Do Not Return after a Recession
Jul09 How Wise Are Crowds?
Jul08 Karl Rove's Group Starts $25 Million Ad Campaign Attacking Obama on Economy
Jul08 Romney Considering Both the Rich and the Poor as Veep
Jul08 Congressman Barney Frank Marries His Long-Time Partner
Jul07 Poor Jobs Report Announced
Jul07 Romney Begins Preparing for the Fall Debates
Jul07 Christie Self Eliminates from Consideration as Veep
Jul06 Competitive Senate Primaries Ahead
Jul06 It's All Over but the Shoutin'
Jul06 Who Cares?
Jul05 Scientists Sequence Fetal Genome from Maternal Blood
Jul05 DCCC Has Biggest Small Donor Fundraising Day in History
Jul05 Will the Republicans Be Able to Repeal Obamacare Even If They Win All the Marbles?
Jul04 Happy 236th Birthday America
Jul04 Half the Population Does Not Know Supreme Court Approved the ACA
Jul04 Congressional Mandates Go Back over 200 Years
Jul04 Vacation as Campaigning
Jul03 Roberts Reportedly Changed Sides after Oral Arguments
Jul03 Several States Have Already Rejected the Medicaid Expansion in the ACA
Jul03 Romney Says the ACA Penalty is not a Tax
Jul02 Which Party Is Best at Managing the Economy?
Jul02 Does a President's Religion Matter?
Jul02 Bain Ads Apparently Working
Jul01 Obama Gets a Boost from Supreme Court Ruling on the ACA
Jul01 Billionaires Are Starting to Fund Down-Ticket Races
Jul01 Was Roberts Sending a Dog Whistle to Congress: Save the Institution?
Jul01 Is Mexico Leading the Way in Polling?
Jun30 Americans Evenly Split on Supreme Court Decision on ACA
Jun30 A Rarely Mentioned Objection to the ACA
Jun30 Red States May Try to Bargain on Medicaid
Jun30 Difference Between ACA and Raich Explained