The Honeymoon Is Over

As we have pointed out recently, Donald Trump's approval is under water on the economy. Only 37% approve of his economic program. This is noteworthy because many people voted for him in November because they thought he would fix Joe Biden's "mistakes." Now, as we noted over the weekend, a Washington Post-ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday morning shows that Trump is also under water in immigration, his other supposed strong point.

A majority of Americans—51%—disapprove of Trump's handling of immigration, with 47% approving. Broken down by partisanship, 90% of Democrats, 56% of independents, and 11% of Republicans disapprove. Among other things, 42% want Kilmar Abrego Garcia to be brought home and 26% do not. Even on Trump's strongest issue—deporting migrants suspected of being members of a criminal gang—51% do not want them sent to El Salvador and 47% do.

Later in the day, the first New York Times/Siena College poll of 2025 was released. It covered many topics and got a lot of coverage. It is bad news for Donald Trump up and down the line. Here are five key takeaways from the poll:

• Trump has overreached and gone too far.
• Voters see Trump primarily as "scary" and "chaotic."
• People are not buying what Trump is selling.
• Trump is losing his advantage on the economy.
• Voters don't like Elon Musk.

Here are the numbers for the question: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling..."

On all seven issues, Trump is under water. What is somewhat surprising is that his three worst areas are foreign policy-related, something people usually don't care about. On the "positive" side for Trump, his approval on the economy is 43% here, slightly better than the 37% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll last week. Still, if we average them to 40% approval, that is still not so great on what was supposed to be Trump's strongest issue and the one the voters care the most about. On the question of whether Trump "understands the problems facing people like you," he is at 44%, with only 31% of independents agreeing.

Many voters want to place limits on what the president can do, as follows.

• 76% say the president should not be able to ignore the Supreme Court.
• 73% say the president should not be able to send American citizens to prison in El Salvador.
• 63% say the president should not be able to deport legal immigrants who have protested Israel.
• 61% say the president should not be able to impose tariffs without the consent of Congress.
• 54% say the president should not be able to eliminate programs enacted by Congress.

It is clear that the voters do not want the president to usurp the powers of Congress. Perhaps Congress will take note of this, but we have our doubts.

Possibly even more troubling for Trump is that twice as many voters say Trump's policies have hurt them as say his policies have helped them. And remember, the full effect of the tariffs (higher prices and empty shelves) haven't hit yet.

Siena also asked about Elon Musk. He is very unpopular, with 56% having an unfavorable view of him and 35% having a favorable view. Musk does extremely poorly with white, college-educated voters, where 58% have a very unfavorable view of him, 8% a somewhat unfavorable view, 14% a somewhat favorable view, and 17% a very favorable view. Men like him much more than women and white people like him more than Black people (with 66% of Black people having a very unfavorable view of Musk).

Here are the full crosstabs.

Nate Cohn has drawn some insights from the poll. First, compared to other presidents at this point, Trump is in bad shape. Four years ago today, Joe Biden was still being compared to FDR. Even doomed administrations such as Jimmy Carter's or George W. Bush's second term were above water at the 100-day mark. For most presidents, it is only downhill after the first 100 days.

Second, compared to January 20, things look much worse for Trump. People back then were talking about a permanent realignment in favor of the Republicans due to Trump's (narrowly) winning the popular vote. Since then, talk of a permanent Republican majority has vanished and most of Trump's political capital has already been spent. His big, beautiful bill containing all his priorities hasn't passed yet and may have to be watered down quite a bit to get it through Congress.

Third, the things Trump has done so far are all by XO and many are illegal and are being batted down by the courts. He did not campaign on starting a trade war, taking a meat axe to the federal government, or trying to destroy the media, universities, and law firms. And he certainly did not promise to send immigrants to a gulag in El Salvador, he was just going to send them home. None of these things are popular.

Fourth, Trump is not out of the woods yet. The economy, immigration, and his authoritarian rule will only continue to drive down his approval during the next 45 months. If his approval falls into the 30s, many members of Congress, especially those up in 2026, may go looking for the place where they misplaced their spines. And if the Democrats win the House in 2026, Trump will face a reenergized opposition and will probably be impeached at least once. (V)

The Mistakes Just Keep Piling Up

Part of the reason that the voters see Trump v2.0 as chaotic is the increasingly long list of news stories that show how incompetent Donald Trump and the people around him are. In small matters and large matters, many negative incidents have occurred and it gives people the feeling that the administration doesn't know what it is doing. The Biden and Obama administrations never had a long list of mishaps like these:

• Signal: At least two times, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has put secret war plans out on an unapproved channel where participants without a security clearance could see them. He even had an unsecure PC and an unsecure Internet connection installed for his use, in violation of all DoD security rules. Any Democratic Secretary of Defense who did this would have been impeached and convicted already. People don't like the lives of service members being put at risk due to politicians ignoring the security rules. Remember that Republicans rode Hillary Clinton's e-mail server to victory for years, even though there is no evidence that anyone other than Clinton and her staff had access to it.
  
  
• Harvard: Someone sent Harvard an outrageous list of demands, basically saying that unless it let the administration run the university, billions of dollars in funds would be (illegally) withheld. After the resulting storm died down a bit, the administration said it was a mistake. We don't know if it was really a mistake. If it was, they are incompetent. If it was not a mistake, they are going full-blown authoritarian. Neither is a good look.
  
  
• IRS commissioner: Trump appointed Gary Shapley as acting commissioner of the IRS. Two days later he fired Shapley. Supposedly, Elon Musk was the genius who suggested Shapley, but when Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent got wind of this, he blew a gasket and demanded that Trump fire Shapley. The whole thing reeks of gross incompetence.
  
  
• Tariffs: The initial round of tariffs on "Liberation Day" was a disaster. Apparently someone asked an AI chatbot to provide a tariff for each country, and it used some nonsensical formula to pull numbers out of thin air, including a tariff on an island occupied only by penguins. A few days later, Trump yanked all the tariffs and announced new ones. Couldn't he get this right the first time around? Apparently, no. He now claims he has made 200 trade deals, even though that’s more countries than the world has, according to most lists. Of course, most lists do not include the penguin kingdom of Heard and MacDonald Islands. In any case, this claim is obviously a lie. Trade deals take months to negotiate. He probably hasn't completed a single deal yet. At best he might have a concept of a plan that he could propose if the other side decides to show up for negotiations.
  
  
• DOGE: Elon and the Muskrats are just slashing the budget without any idea of what they are doing. Musk eliminated the government workers who look after nuclear safety and power grid security. They (and many others) had to be brought back. Musk promised $2 trillion in savings. So far, he has saved $160 billion at best, but has also run up a bill of $135 billion for correcting his mistakes. Our staff mathematician claims $160B - $135B ≠ $2T. We don't know. Our calculator app doesn't do trillions.
  
  
• Markets: Trump's poorly thought out policies have caused the stock market to tank (causing trillions in losses), the bond market to panic, and the U.S. dollar to lose about 9% of its value since Jan 20. His billionaire cronies don't like this kind of volatility.
  
  
• Kristi Noem: The Secretary of DHS had her purse snatched while at a D.C. restaurant, despite a full security detail present. Her $4,000 Gucci purse contained her driver's license, apartment keys, blank checks, passport, official badge, and $3,000 in cash. This is getting a lot of attention, and maybe should get more. Think about the things she was carrying. Why would you need that much cash, plus blank checks, plus a passport? One possibility is that you want to be prepared to flee the country. Certainly it is unusual.
  
  And Noem is not only careless, but also tone deaf. Forget her bragging about shooting her puppy in the head. That was before she joined the Cabinet. But wearing a $50,000 Rolex watch and tactical gear while using the El Salvador gulag as a backdrop for a speech praising Trump suggests she is in over her head. For a professional politician, she ought to know better. She is not among South Dakota's best and brightest.
  

In addition there are many things Trump has done that are not mistakes but also are not popular. He has made a serious effort to stop scientific research on reducing climate change (and the accompanying hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and tornadoes), curing diseases, and creating new industries. He has targeted Head Start and heating oil programs for poor people. He has deported people without due process and defied the courts on this. He soured all of America's allies on America. And many more things. Voters don't keep track of all this stuff, but at some point the overall message is: "Can't they do anything right?" (V)

You Can't Put the Toothpaste Back in the Tube

The tariffs, especially on China, are going to cause damage in a few weeks, even if Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping make a deal tomorrow (and Xi says no negotiations are underway). It's too late to avoid all the damage. The die is cast.

The tariffs have severely disrupted trans-Pacific trade. On top of that, China has restricted the export of rare earth elements, which are used in electric motors. The number of cargo ships docking in Long Beach, the main gateway for products from Asia, is way down compared to last month. Some companies saw this coming and stocked up on imports, but when they are all sold or used to make products, there won't be new ones coming in soon. Some products will simply be unavailable, although some retailers may jack the prices way up to artificially limit demand and make out like bandits.

Fewer ships arriving also means less work for dock workers, truckers and retail workers. It also means small businesses that sell products from China may go out of business for lack of inventory to sell. If it takes too long for the tariffs to be reduced, it could lead to a recession. Xi is in no hurry to bail Trump out. He doesn't have to worry about elections next year and probably wants to teach Trump a lesson: Don't mess with China.

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey shows one of the biggest month-to-month drops on record. Many companies import parts from China, but if the parts aren't there and there is no alternative supplier, then the finished product can't be made. This will cause factories to go idle and workers to be laid off. Business investment is at a standstill since companies have no idea what the economy will be like in 6 months. Companies hate to expand production if a recession is coming up and they won't even be able to sell the products they are making now, let alone more of them.

Even if Trump wants a deal, it may not be so easy to get it. His idea of negotiating is to threaten his opponent and get him to give in. Xi doesn't like one-on-one meetings with trade partners. He likes lower-level subject-matter experts on his side talking to their counterparts on the other side. Once they have agreed on a deal, then they submit it to Xi to evaluate and accept or reject. Trump doesn't work that way. Threatening Xi won't work. Xi holds a lot of cards.

China isn't the only problem. Japan is expected to fiercely resist requests for limits on automobile exports. The E.U. is very unlikely to change its value-added tax or agricultural subsidies. India might be willing to import more food, though, if the price is right.

An additional problem is the general 10% tariff on all countries. Conducting 195 separate negotiations will take time. Who will do the negotiating? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is probably capable of it, but even he has only 24 hours in a day.

In short, a certain amount of disruption that people will actually feel is already baked in. Nothing Trump can do now will prevent it. All he can do now is prevent it from getting worse. (V)

Trump Has a New Idea: Grifting the Rich

Up until now, Donald Trump's approach to grift is to get suckers voters to give him money by buying King Donald Bibles, gold sneakers, DJT stock, $TRUMP crypto and other small items. The business model has always been getting a large number of ordinary people to each give him a small or modest amount of money.

Now he has thought of a complementary model: Getting a small number of very rich people to each give him a lot of money. He has created a new club in D.C. called the "Executive Branch." Joining is by invitation only and costs $500,000. It is intended for moguls to buy access to Trump and other high-level officials. It hopes to be the fanciest club the city has ever seen. By openly selling access to the president and other officials, it will also be the most corrupt one. And the most secret one. It is already oversubscribed. The main operators here are Donald Trump Jr. and Republican megadonor Omeed Malik, a venture capitalist.

Since most of the people joining are likely to be busy CEOs who don't even live in the capital, it isn't like this will be a regular club where people just hang out for fun. It is a way of buying influence with Trump. Members might be told when Trump or other officials will be in attendance, so they can schedule their plans around his availability. Assuming the club has little private rooms off to the side, it could provide the ideal atmosphere for muckety-mucks to plead their cases and make private deals—say, to get an exemption for their company from some annoying tariff or get an investigation or anti-trust case dropped. Once the club has started operating, it wouldn't surprise us if it began offering silver, gold, and platinum memberships with some minor benefits—for example, dinner for platinum members is only $299 instead of the usual $599 for a hamburger, fries, and a small soft drink. (V)

Grassley Attacks Trump on Ukraine

On Friday, Sen Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said Russia is "playing America as a patsy." Grassley asked Trump to punish Russia for launching a deadly attack on Kyiv during ceasefire negotiations. Here is his post on eX-Twitter:

Grassley is a strong supporter of Ukraine. Actually, many Republican senators are strong supporters of Ukraine, only most of them are scared to death to oppose Trump in public. This even holds for senators who are retiring and who can't be primaried, like Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). So great is their cowardice.

Grassley is 91 now. He is up for reelection in 2028, when he will be 95 on Election Day and 101 at the end of another term. Will he run again in 2028? The actuarial tables say he won't make it. Maybe this is his swan song, so he dares to speak up a bit. Aren't there any other Republican senators for whom this is their final term and who are willing to say what they really think about Ukraine? Or what about Republican senators up in 2030, when Trump might well be dead or at least without much power? Doesn't look that way so far, but stay tuned. (V)

Bondi Cancels Hundreds of Grants to Nonprofits

The Biden Dept. of Justice gave out hundreds of grants to nonprofit organizations to do a multitude of things the DoJ believes will improve the administration of justice. Among other things, the $4.4 billion in grants during the last fiscal year fund mental health care for police officers, support victims of crime and sexual assault, fight human trafficking, curb juvenile delinquency, safeguard incarcerated youth, fund hate-crime reporting, provide support for various hotlines, prevent crimes, aid survivors of domestic violence, help LGBTQ groups work with police departments to reduce violence against LGBTQ people, and much more.

Unfortunately for the groups getting the grants and for the ultimate recipients of the help, AG Pam Bondi doesn't see the need for this kind of stuff, despite all the programs being funded by congressional appropriations. Most grants run for three years. But rather than let them run their course and not renew them, Bondi has decided to simply kill programs she doesn't like. At least 350 ongoing grants have been abruptly terminated before the contractual end date. Many of the canceled grants go to help the victims of crimes. They provide legal help, safe housing, medical and trauma support, and even funeral expenses to bury a loved one who has been murdered when the family can't pay to bury the victim. When asked about this, Bondi said: "Grants for programs that do not align with the administration's priorities were rescinded but this Department of Justice will continue to ensure that services for victims are not impacted and any recipient will have the ability to appeal and restore any grant if direct impact on victims can be thoroughly established." Sure.

But Bondi is not stopping with terminating grants she doesn't like. She has also reversed a Biden-era policy of not issuing subpoenas to reporters and news organizations when tracking down news leaks. That policy, implemented by then-AG Merrick Garland, was seen as a victory for a free press. A free press is not a priority for Bondi. Catching and punishing leakers is a priority. She said: "This Justice Department will not tolerate unauthorized disclosures that undermine President Trump's policies, victimize government agencies, and cause harm to the American people." In other words, if a whistleblower tips off a media outlet that someone in the administration is breaking the law, the priority is not going after the lawbreaker but going after the person who tipped off the media to the crime.

Many state and local officials find this new policy abhorrent. In a statement, New Jersey AG Matthew Platkin (D) wrote: "Instead of helping to keep our residents safe, the Trump Administration is once again cruelly clawing back critical public safety funding for our state." In Missouri, a grant that funded counseling and treatment through the mental health court was canceled. Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas (D) said: "It takes away a tool that we have to give people treatment and then break the cycle of recidivism that we see on nuisance offenses." In Iowa, a program that put kennels in domestic violence shelters was canceled. The result is that some women who want to flee domestic violence will be hesitant to do so if that means leaving Fido behind to starve to death. (V)

Democrats Will Force Painful Votes in House Committees

While Democrats have limited power in Congress, it is not zero. In the Senate, of course, they have the filibuster. But even in the House they have some power. In particular, the Big-Beautiful-Kitchen-Sink bill that Donald Trump wants will probably be cobbled together in the House. Different parts of the bill will be written or marked up by different committees. What Democrats are going to do is force votes on some parts of the GOP agenda. They will lose all the votes, but it will require Republican members to go on the record supporting things like cutting Medicaid and SNAP (food stamps), as well as supporting big tax cuts for billionaires. These votes will be used in campaign ads in 2026. The strategy will be used in the Energy and Commerce Committee, Agriculture Committee, and Ways and Means Committee, among many others.

As long as the discussions about the agenda are vague and generalized, it is easy to defend anything. But when specific language is inserted into the bill and a Democrat makes a motion to strip it and asks for a vote, that is when the rubber meets the road. Anne Shoup, a senior adviser to Protect Our Care, one of the best-funded groups that will fight for Medicaid, said: "They won't have anywhere to hide."

Democrats are basically going to rerun the playbook that gave them control of the House after the 2018 midterms. Then they hammered Republicans for months on the votes they made to repeal the Affordable Care Act and enact tax cuts for billionaires. It worked well. Democrats flipped 41 seats.

Democrats are specifically targeting Republicans in swing districts on certain committees. For example, Reps. Gabe Evans (R-CO), Tom Kean (R-NJ) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) are going to have to vote on changes to Medicaid that will be extremely unpopular back home. Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Zach Nunn (R-IA) and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) are going to have to vote on cutting SNAP benefits. Given the narrow margins on some of the committees, in some cases, even a few defections could kill a provision, so Republicans may be forced to vote for things that they know are toxic in their districts. (V)

Young Democrats Are Going after Old Democrats

Democrats have been pretty united this year. Hatred of Donald Trump is definitely a unifying principle. That unity is about to end. DNC Vice Chair David Hogg, a survivor of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, only made the constitutionally mandated minimum age to serve in the House 2 weeks ago. He is not running for the House, though, but he is the founder of the group Leaders We Deserve, which is hoping to spend $20 million to replace older moderate Democrats with younger progressive Democrats (mostly in deep-blue districts that no Republican could win, so they are not risking seats).

Many older House members are furious that a leader of the Democratic Party is going to actively try to defeat incumbent Democrats. In the past, the DNC has always been neutral in primaries. DNC Chairman Ken Martin has given Hogg an ultimatum: Either stop trying to defeat incumbent Democrats or give up your leadership position. You can't be a party leader while simultaneously trying to unseat House Democrats.

In some cases, Hogg has insurgent candidates lined up already. This graphic shows the age difference between the challenger and the incumbent:

Except for Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) in NJ-06, none of the districts are in danger, no matter who the nominee is. Hogg's argument for rejuvenating the party is that young voters are furious at the party leadership for passively accepting Trump and not fighting him every minute of the day and night. He believes they will turn out in great numbers given the right candidate. His model, of course, is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) defeating Joe Crowley in the 2018 primary.

All of the challengers are newbies and will have to demonstrate that they can raise large amounts of money. They will also have to overcome the entire Democratic congressional leadership, which is backing every incumbent. If they do succeed in raising big bucks, that might convince outgunned incumbents to bow out gracefully. Missing from the Axios chart is Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) who is 80, and who has been challenged by TikToker Kat Abughazaleh (26) in the D+19 district. Abughazaleh raised $379,000 in 8 days. Schakowsky is expected to announce her retirement next week. (V)

You Can Take Adam out of the House, but Not the House out of Adam

Newly elected senators are expected to defer to their elders and speak only when spoken to. Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) is not behaving like that. He is confrontational, has criticized the Democratic leadership, and has placed a hold on Ed Martin, Donald Trump's choice as U.S. attorney in D.C. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) told him to "Dump the House stuff," but he is not interested.

Schiff has an unusual CV. He served 12 terms in the House before getting a promotion, but as a House member he was the lead impeachment manager in Trump's first impeachment. That gives him a lot more credibility than your average brand-new first-term senator. He is also a former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, a prestigious position.

Schiff said that had Kamala Harris won, he would have been more circumspect, but she didn't so he isn't. He has been especially aggressive in questioning Trump's nominees, particularly Kash Patel. There were five House Democrats elected to the Senate in November, and the others clearly respect the "House energy" he has brought to the Senate. For example, he is starting to use a common House tactic of holding (unofficial) shadow hearings to get publicity. Last month, he and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) teamed up to hold a hearing to get testimony from former Justice Dept. officials who have since left the Trump administration. Hearings like this often attract media attention and can influence public opinion. Expect him to hold more of them going forward. (V)

Poll: 71% of Mainers Do Not Think Susan Collins Deserves Another Term

A new Pine Tree State poll of voters in Maine has some interesting information about Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). Among Democrats, 84% do not want to see Collins reelected; among independents it is 67%; among Republicans, 57% do not want to see her reelected. She may finally have overstayed her welcome.

Among Democrats, 79% want to see Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) run against Collins. Republicans absolutely do not want Mills to run, with 95% saying no. They clearly understand the consequences of that. Democrats would also be fine (69%) with Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME) if Mills opts out. Pingree is almost as unpopular (85%) with Republicans as Mills. Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) is not nearly as popular as Mills or Pingree (33%) among Democrats, but also not as toxic as the other two among Republicans. Only 67% don't want him to run.

The survey also asked other things, such as the biggest problem Maine is facing. The winner, hands down, was leftist politicians (26%), beating out housing (12%), federal government (11%), and the state budget (9%). Interestingly enough, in New Hampshire and Vermont, the "threat" of leftist politicians was much less, 4% and 6%, respectively. (V)

Trump Is on the Ballot Today--in Canada

Canadians go to the polls today in what has been described as the most consequential election in Canada in decades. The election for the House of Commons uses a first-past-the-post system in the 343 ridings (districts). The two main contenders are Mark Carney, who was elected Liberal leader after the resignation of Justin Trudeau, and Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader who just weeks ago was considered a shoo-in. Donald Trump's threats and Carney's entrance on the scene seems to have turned the tables, and polls are now predicting a Liberal victory.

There is a Senate that (in theory) is equal to the House of Commons, but in practice has very little power. Senators have to be between 30 and 75 and own at least $4,000 in property. They are appointed by the governor general on advice of the prime minister. Currently 51 senators (54.4%) are women.

The main question seems to be whether the Liberals will get an absolute majority or will have to form a coalition with one of the smaller parties. If the Liberals get an absolute majority, Carney has promised to Trump-proof Canada and will be able to do it without negotiating with any smaller parties, which often win some ridings.

The specter of Donald Trump looms large over the election, as Canadians feel massively insulted by his "51st state" comments and there has been a renewed sense of patriotism across Canada, with many people boycotting U.S. products and canceling vacations in the U.S.

It is more than a bit ironic that in order to hold off the hostile Americans, Canada is de facto (temporarily) adopting America's two-party system, with the small parties collapsing. Either you are for Trump or against Trump. There are no other options. If the Liberals win in a huge landslide, it will be a giant slap in the face to Trump. (V)

---

If you wish to contact us, please use one of these addresses. For the first two, please include your initials and city.

• questions@electoral-vote.com    For questions about politics, civics, history, etc. to be answered on a Saturday
• comments@electoral-vote.com   For "letters to the editor" for possible publication on a Sunday
• corrections@electoral-vote.com To tell us about typos or factual errors we should fix
• items@electoral-vote.com            For general suggestions, ideas, etc.

To download a poster about the site to hang up, please click here.

---

Email a link to a friend.

---The Votemaster and Zenger