Oct. 05 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Senate Dem 50   GOP 48   Ties 2
House Dem 204   GOP 190   Ties 41

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strong Dem Strong Dem (46)
weak Dem Weak Dem (3)
barely Dem Barely Dem (1)
tied Exactly tied (2)
barely GOP Barely GOP (2)
weak GOP Weak GOP (4)
strong GOP Strong GOP (42)
strong Ind Strong Ind (0)
weak Ind Weak Ind (0)
barely Ind Barely Ind (0)
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Senate polls today: AR AZ CA CT IL MD PA RSS
Dem pickups: (None) GOP pickups: AR CO IN ND PA WV WI PDA

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Obama-Clinton Ticket Possible Democrats Maintain Leads in California

News from the Votemaster            

Brown Leads Whitman for California Governor     Permalink

The first polls subsequent to the maidgate scandal that hit Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman last week are now in. Rasmussen has Democratic candidate Jerry Brown leading Whitman 49% to 44%. Two weeks ago, Rasmussen had Brown ahead by 1%. Among Latino and Asian voters, Whitman was getting 17% two weeks ago. That is down to 7% now. Clearly the maid story is hurting her.

In a second poll, SurveyUSA has Brown ahead 47% to 43%. So it looks like Brown is probably a little bit ahead. Whitman has to move fast to fix the problem since early voting began yesterday in California.

Gallup Poll of Likely Voters Released     Permalink

Gallup has released its first poll of likely voters. Among all registered voters, Republicans lead by 3% among registered votes but among likely voters, the gap is 13%. This finding indicates that Gallup expects many more Republicans to vote than Democrats. The job for the Democrats at this point is not to appeal to Republicans, but to convince Democrats that they have done a good job. Apparently many Democrats are not convinced, possibly because so many of the things Obama did in the past two years were so watered down in a vain attempt to attract one or two Republican votes in the Senate. Ultimately, he didn't get the votes and the Democrats may pay dearly for trying so hard. Or putting it the other way, the Republicans strategy of "just say no" appears to be a winner since the main effect seems to be demoralizing the Democratic base.

On the other hand, an ABC News/Washington Post poll puts the gap among likely voters at only 6%, with 49% favoring the Republicans and 43% favoring the Democrats. A month ago this poll had the GOP 13% ahead, so the Democrats may be slowly clawing their way back from oblivion.

National Journal Publishes List of Governors' Mansions Most Likely to Flip     Permalink

The National Journal has compiled a list of the states in which the incumbent party is likely to lose the governorship. The top five are Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Rhode Island, and Michigan. Except for Rhode Island, all these states currently have a Democratic governor. Three of the next five are also Democrats.

Republican Leaders Try to Lower Expectations     Permalink

With hard-charging tea party candidates promising to repeal the health-insurance law, reduce the federal deficit, and rein in government, Republican leaders are begining to worry about what might happen if the Republicans take control of one or both chambers of Congress. Realistically, they won't be able to pass or repeal any laws even if they all stick together because Obama will veto the bills. But few tea party candidates point out that they won't be able to carry out any of their promises before 2012 at the earliest, and only then if a Republican is elected President. So John Cornyn, Eric Cantor, and Haley Barbour are going around trying to temper expectations without discouraging their supporters. But it is fine line to walk telling people that if the Republicans win they won't be able to do much but they should vote for the Republicans anyway.

Today's Polls: AR AZ CA CT IL MD PA NM-01 NM-02 WY-AL     Permalink

New Senate Polls

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct I I-pct Start End Pollster
Arkansas Blanche Lincoln* 37% John Boozman 55%     Sep 30 Sep 30 Rasmussen
Arizona Rodney Glassman 33% John McCain* 54%     Oct 03 Oct 03 Rasmussen
California Barbara Boxer* 46% Carly Fiorina 43%     Sep 30 Oct 03 SurveyUSA
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal 53% Linda McMahon 41%     Sep 30 Oct 02 PPP
Illinois Alexi Giannoulias 41% Mark Kirk 42%     Sep 30 Oct 03 Suffolk U.
Maryland Barbara Mikulski* 61% Eric Wargotz 29%     Sep 22 Sep 26 Washington Post
Pennsylvania Joe Sestak 41% Pat Toomey 51%     Sep 29 Sep 29 Rasmussen

New House Polls

Cong. Distr. Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct I I-pct Start End Pollster
NM-01 Martin Heinrich* 48% Jon Barela 41%     Sep 27 Sep 30 Research and Polling
NM-02 Harry Teague* 44% Steve Pearce 45%     Sep 27 Sep 30 Research and Polling
WY-AL David Wendt 29% Cynthia Lummis* 61%     Sep 30 Sep 30 Rasmussen

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